2-4 foot
1-3 foot
1-3 foot
2-5 foot

Minimal marine hazards are expected through the weekend. A surface trough near the Big Island and a bubble high north of the area will keep light northeast winds over the smaller islands through Sunday. The winds will be light enough for sea breezes to develop during the day. Light to moderate southeast to south winds should be expected through the windward and southeast Big Island waters. Periods of heavier showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms are also expected over these waters through tonight. The surface trough will being to shift east over the weekend as high pressure builds to the northwest and a front passes to the north.

A declining east swell will keep texture to the eastern waters and produce surf just below advisory levels today. This swell will fade through the weekend. Surf elsewhere will remain quiet until the beginning of next week. A hurricane force low is expected to develop off of Japan this weekend and send a large, long period northwest swell towards the islands Tuesday through midweek. Surf heights could near warning levels.

Additionally, a cold front will approach and move into the area from the north Monday night through midweek, which will bring fresh to strong north winds and rough seas (small craft advisory conditions) across the waters Tuesday through midweek.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 06:49 am this morning and will set at 06:29 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 18 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 11:29 AM on Tuesday, February 26th.

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 8am March 26th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Friday, 22nd February 2019

Summary

A surface trough near the Big Island will support increased clouds and chances of showers over the eastern end of the island chain through the weekend. Meanwhile, weak high pressure to the northwest will support mostly dry weather over Kauai and Oahu. A cooler northerly wind flow pattern is expected to bring drier air to the state next week.

Detailed Discussion

Overall quiet weather pattern for much of the state today. However, the Big Island remains in the vicinity of a surface trough located just to the east. Result of the upper level jet nearby is strong westerly winds over the Big Island summits requiring a Wind Advisory through the day. In addition to the winds, a thin layer of clouds is intersecting with the summits at near freezing temperatures, which may bring pockets of ice and fog, especially this morning. The winds are expected to decrease below advisory levels by tonight. Also, higher moisture levels across the rest of the Big Island will bring an increasing chance for showers and a slight chance of thundershowers through the rest of the day and tonight to mainly the Hilo, Puna and Kau districts.

Otherwise, light winds today will allow afternoon sea breezes to drive cloud formation over interior portions of Kauai, Oahu and parts of Maui county, but much drier and more stable airmass will likely yield little in the way of rainfall.

Model guidance shows little change in this pattern over the weekend with an axis of moisture stuck near the Big Island, and occasional, hard to accurately time, upper level shortwaves bringing potential bursts of deep convection and locally heavy rainfall Saturday and Sunday on parts of the Big Island and maybe as far west as eastern Maui. The western portion of the state remains under a much drier and more stable airmass during the weekend for quieter weather.

Medium range ECMWF shows another trough developing far northeast of the state by the middle of next week. This would put the state in a cooler northerly flow, but without much moisture or dynamical support for rainfall. If subsequent guidance shifts the trough closer to the state than presently shown, that would increase the threat for gusty north to northwest winds and rain showers and summit snowfall around the middle to end of next week. Will need to keep monitoring this period for shifts in guidance.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 62 to 67. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 56 to 67. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 at the shore to around 49 at 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 64 at the shore to 48 to 53 upcountry. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 37 to 50. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.