by OMaui AdminFading surf will stick around through the day near or just above head-high levels along our north and northwest facing shores today, but it will steadily decrease through the weekend. In fact, Sunday will see the smallest surf we’ve seen in quite a while as wave heights drop to waist-high levels or less. This near flat spell will be fairly short-lived, but the incoming swells anticipated next week aren’t going to be anything to get excited over. The first of these swells will hit Kaua`i Monday afternoon but probably won’t reach Maui until after the sun sets, and we’ll be lucky if it peaks a few feet overhead Tuesday. The second, slightly smaller swell should arrive Wednesday afternoon, followed by a similar reinforcement Thursday afternoon into Friday. The long-range models continue to show a larger swell developing around the middle of next week for a weekend arrival, but it is still way too early for confidence. Stay tuned and keep those fingers crossed.
North and northwest facing shores should still offer small to low-end moderate surf in the 5-8+ foot range today but it will steadily decrease through the day. Upper West shores may be around 2-4+ foot at the better breaks while others come in near flat. Windswell along our east facing shores will be rough and sloppy around 3-5+ foot but some areas could see larger surf if we’re lucky. South facing shores have no swell to mention and should come in flat at 0-2 foot.
What’s New on OMaui
I am experimenting with a long-range forecast chart for both North and South shores which I hope will help people better plan their lives around the surf. The charts can be found below. The surf heights are approximate and of course may not be exact, so don’t put too much faith in them.
Extended Surf Forecast
North Pacific Outlook
A strong gale developed far northwest of Hawai`i in the area east of Japan and southeast of the Kuril Islands late last weekend and early this week that set up a long fetch that reached relative close to the islands. This energy has peaked already and will slowly fade Friday into Saturday, possibly still offering waist- to chest-high surf through Sunday. A small but strong gale set up near the Aleutian Islands Wednesday sending a minor north-northwest reinforcement that probably won’t add much size to the fading swell but it should definitely help prolong the surf through the weekend. A new low formed late Wednesday just east of Japan, briefly tracking toward the east but then shifting toward the Aleutians. This should provide Hawai`i with an upper-end small to moderate northwest swell arriving Monday, most likely only reaching a few feet overhead here on Maui. A couple of minor lows are forming east of Japan Friday that are expected to rapidly track toward the east through the weekend. The resulting swells should arrive back-to-back Wednesday and Thursday but probably won’t be that exciting at small to low-end moderate levels. Looking farther into the models we can see a strong low developing over the Kuril Islands around Tuesday and becoming a major swell producer around the end of next week. If all goes according to the forecast we could see an extra-large swell arriving later next weekend. Keep those fingers crossed!
South Pacific Outlook
Looking down to the South Pacific we shouldn’t be expecting any action. However, some energy was loosely directed up the swell window southeast of New Zealand earlier this week that has a slight chance of reaching our summer shores around Monday or Tuesday of next week. Nothing to get excited over, but small to low-end moderate surf is possible. There are no other sources for surf coming out of the southern hemisphere through the forecast period.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.4 foot at 1:08am late last night, dropping to a low of 0.6 foot at 7:50am this morning, rising again to a high of 1.2 foot at 12:19pm shortly after noon, then dropping through the afternoon to a low of -0.2 foot at 6:26pm early this evening. The sunrise was at 6:54am this morning and will set at 6:25pm early tonight. The Moon is in a waning crescent phase and will reach New Moon this Tuesday.
Maui Weather
Sunset: 7:03 PM
Strong and breezy tradewinds will continue over the islands today and through the weekend focusing showers over windward and mauka areas, although some leeward areas could see a shower or two passing over due to the strong winds. An upper-level low is deepening south of the state as a trough northwest of the islands continues to pick away at the ridge overhead. Increased moisture is likely Sunday into Monday, but the Big Island summits could see the beginning of some wintery weather beginning tonight. It doesn’t look like Haleakala will see any ice or snow at this time, but it’s not out of the question either. The weather should begin to dry out as we head into the new week. A new front is forecast to approach the islands over the first half of the week but it should not actually reach Hawai`i. Stay tuned for more details.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Windy. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Breezy. Highs 74 to 80. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Breezy. Highs 64 to 78. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Breezy. Highs around 76 at the shore to around 59 at 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Breezy. Highs around 78 at the shore to around 63 at 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Haleakala Summit
Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Windy. Highs around 60 at 7000 feet to around 55 at the summit. East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
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