8-12 foot
5-8 foot
0-3 foot
8-12 foot

Locally strong and gusty winds are expected to continue over the western waters today with strong high pressure to the north and a low to the east. The low to the east appears to have started to move towards the west, and as it does, winds will weaken over the eastern waters. Beyond the weekend, the wind forecast remains in flux as the models are continuing to handle the synoptic features differently.

Buoy 51000 to the north of the islands recently has jumped to 24 ft, 11 seconds. An ASCAT pass earlier in the night shows gale force winds upstream of the buoy, suggesting that this jump at the buoy may be those wind waves reaching the buoy. Will need to watch the next several hours at the Buoy to see how that may impact the nearshore buoys. Meanwhile the nearshore buoys exposed to the northeast have been trending up as expected as the current northeast swell continues to arrive. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for east facing shores, and a High Surf Advisory is in effect for north facing shores through today. Surf is forecast to begin to decline later today, likely falling below advisory levels along north facing shores by tonight. Surf heights along east facing shores will decline tonight as well, likely falling below warning levels. A High Surf Advisory will likely be needed for tonight and tomorrow along east facing shores. A new long period west-northwest swell is expected to build today and peak tomorrow. The latest model runs depict the swell coming in a foot or two higher than the previous run, which would indicate the resulting surf could reach near advisory levels.

The Small Craft Advisory continues for most waters, primarily for the seas generated by the large northeast swell, however some areas are expected to have some SCA level winds today as well. The SCA has been extended for most waters through tonight in response to the seas. With the new west-northwest swell coming in today and tomorrow, expect seas to remain above 10 ft in many locations, so the SCA will likely need to be further extended. Winds could exceed SCA levels late in the weekend and early next week, depending on the placement and strength of the low.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 06:53 am this morning and will set at 06:26 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 11 days old, and is in a Waxing Gibbous phase. The next Full Moon will occur at 3:53 PM on Tuesday, February 19th.

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 11am May 20th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 16th February 2019

Summary

A surface low east of the islands will lift northward through Saturday, then shift westward to the north of the state through the weekend. A trough, aloft and at the surface, will linger over the islands through the middle of next week.

Detailed Discussion

The latest surface analysis shows a 1007 mb surface low, about 180 miles northeast of Hilo near 21N153W. A strong 1040 mb high is centered far north of the area near 40N148W. The pressure gradient between the high and low is producing locally breezy north to northeast winds across the area. Satellite water vapor loops show a low aloft about 400 miles north of Honolulu with a trough extending south over the Big Island. The low is keeping the atmosphere unstable. The low level winds are carrying showery low clouds over the smaller islands, but few if any showers are reaching the Big Island. Rainfall is heaviest over windward areas, but the low clouds are tall enough, and the winds are strong enough so that showers are spreading leeward on the smaller islands. The relatively deep moisture and cold temperatures aloft will maintain the potential for additional snow and ice on the high mountain summits of Maui and Big Island. A Winter Weather Advisory continues through 10 AM Saturday.

The global models remains in fairly good agreement showing the low lifting northward through Saturday, then tracking northwest well to the north of the islands through the weekend. A trough, at the surface and aloft will move west over the islands by Sunday, then linger over the area through the middle of next week.

As the trough moves west over the area, breezy north to northeast winds will shift toward Kauai County while winds over the rest of the islands will shift out of the southeast and weaken. Precipitation will decrease through the weekend. Rainfall will shift from northeast sections of the islands to leeward and interior sections tomorrow due to afternoon sea breezes.

Rainfall will likely increase again early next week as southeast flow feeds very moist air over the islands. Thunderstorms and heavy rain will be possible, especially for the Big Island, through mid-week.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 59 to 79. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 at the shore to around 59 at 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 64 at the shore to 46 to 54 upcountry. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Haleakala Summit

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM HST THIS MORNING. Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered rain showers. Highs around 44 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. North winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.