The current northwest swell should still offer plenty chest- to head-high surf today but the stronger tradewinds will chop it up. East-northeasterly windswell along the east shores should continue to provide our windward shores with surf as well. Another northwest swell is expected to arrive overnight tonight into Friday with a better chance at reaching advisory levels when it peaks Friday with a slow fade into Saturday. An even larger northwest swell is setting up far west-northwest to northwest of the islands. The first part of this swell will arrive out of the west-northwest Sunday, heavily shadowed by Moloka`i. But Monday should see more energy from the northwest, peaking well above advisory levels. This swell is still developing, so check back for updates. Increasing upstream tradewinds will produce a building windswell over the next few days, possibly reaching advisory levels of 8 foot faces or more along the windward shores later this weekend and early next week. The long-range models show a complex low developing in the far northwest North Pacific late in the weekend into next week, but at the moment it looks like it will be poorly aimed in our direction. More details to come.
North and northwest facing shores should still offer plenty surf in the 3-5 foot range and some breaks could still pull in larger surf if you know where to go. Upper West shores won’t offer much more than 1-3 foot, but the better breaks could offer slightly larger sets. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores will likely stay in the 1-4 foot range today but it will be building over the next few days. South facing shores have no swell to mention and will remain flat at 0-2 foot, although some areas could get a bit of wrapping windswell over the next few days.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 1.91 foot at 4:34 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.14 foot at 11:09 AM shortly before noon, then rising to a high of 1.62 foot at 5:33 PM late this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.75 foot at 11:04 PM shortly before midnight. The sunrise was at 06:54 am this morning and will set at 06:25 pm this evening. The Moon is in a waxing crescent phase and will reach First Quarter this Sunday.
Sunset: 6:14 PM
Weather Outlook for Thursday
High pressure to our north will strengthen over the next several days. Trades will start to increase Friday and continue strengthening Saturday. Strong trades will persist Sunday through Tuesday. The weather should stay fairly dry for the next couple of days. An upper level trough developing near the islands this weekend will produce a small increase in showers.
No significant changes to the ongoing forecast reasoning are expected. Strengthening high pressure over latitudes north of Hawai`i signals increasing trades locally over the next several days. A developing upper-level trough will produce less stable conditions and better vertical development of any showers, however moisture will remain limited. Expect short lived yet isolated downpours at times along windward zones. A brief increase in coverage is possible Friday night to Saturday afternoon.
Next week high pressure in the eastern North Pacific will become even stronger resulting in sustained fresh to strong tradewinds locally. Wind advisories and perhaps warnings for some of the notoriously windy areas are possible Sunday through the middle of next week.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly sunny with isolated showers. Breezy. Highs 63 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 72 at the shore to around 58 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 75 at the shore to around 61 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the late morning and early afternoon, then shifting to the southeast late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Sunny. Highs around 58 at 7000 feet to around 51 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph.