4-6+ foot
1-4 foot foot
0-3 foot
2-4 foot


Conditions will continue to deteriorate across the Hawaiian waters as a cold front moves into the area. Heavy showers that are currently impacting the northwest waters early Saturday morning will continue to shift eastward down the island chain through the day. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible over the waters through this time.

In addition to the deteriorating weather associated with the cold front, a moderate west-northwest swell associated with a storm-force low that developed east of Japan earlier this week will peak through the day Saturday, then steadily subside later in the evening through Sunday. This swell combined with advisory-level winds out of the southwest generating short-period/choppy seas locally will continue to generate rough conditions across the waters, which will persist through the evening before trending down. This swell will also continue to generate advisory-level surf along exposed north and west facing shores through Saturday.

Conditions will steadily begin to improve as the front stalls and dissipates over the state and the west-northwest swell eases Sunday. Local winds are forecast to shift out of the west across the Kauai and Oahu waters behind the front at light to moderate speeds tonight, then shift out of the southwest and increase once again Sunday into Sunday night.

Scattered showers are expected before the next front’s arrival later in the week, as the active period across the northwest Pacific is forecast to continue. The latest ensemble and deterministic wave model guidance remain in decent agreement with the large scale pattern and depicts a very large west-northwest swell filling in late Monday and persisting through mid-week before trending down. Fresh to strong southwest winds will remain likely Monday through Tuesday as another cold front moves into the area.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Hawaii Swell Height Model


Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.6 foot at 3:12 AM late last night, dropping to a low of 0.4 foot at 9:34 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 1.6 foot at 2:46 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.3 foot at 8:50 PM early this evening

The sunrise was at 06:56 am this morning and will set at 06:24 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 15 days old, and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 7:35 PM on Saturday, February 18th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

81°/84°
Wind: NNE at 10 mph
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 6:18 PM
current observations as of 6pm September 24th, 2017

Weather Outlook for Saturday

A strong cold front will approach from the west and reach Kauai toward mid morning, and continue eastward on to Oahu and Maui this afternoon and evening. The wind dies down and the showers lessens briefly while the front falls apart over Maui and the Big island Sunday. Moderate to strong southwest winds and a chance of showers returns to most islands Sunday night and last to about Tuesday while another front approaches the islands from the west.

There are a couple changes during the overnight hours. First…the slow down of the front poses a threat of flooding for Maui County especially this afternoon where the front is expected to almost stall. So, the Flash Flood Watch has been extended to cover all of Maui County, to 6 am HST Sunday morning.

Kauai has been swamped by some locally heavy showers and thunderstorms up to now. However, no flash flood warning as of yet. The Hanalei river did reached flood stage momentarily but receded. The Wailua River came close. It is not over yet for Kauai. More rough and rainy weather will come until the front reaches the island at around mid morning. Six hour rainfall totals up until 330 am HST for a few of the more outstanding amounts across Kauai are as follows. Wailua Ditch 2.92 inches. Mount Waialeale 2.57 inches. Lihue Var. Stn. 3.10 inches. Omao at 2.41 inches.

As of 330 am HST, Oahu is about to get swamp as a large area of rain and embedded thunderstorms advances in from the Kauai Channel. Scattered showers are forming in the convergent southwesterly wind flow peppering the islands of Maui County, and also south and west facing shores of the Big Island.

The front should start weakening late tonight with the front easing toward the Big Island. The dynamics supporting the front should be well north of the Big Island leaving little if any for any chance of excessive rains for the Big Island.

Second, models suggests 30 to 35 knot winds to buffet the Haleakala summit today. Given the effect of terrain, we expect winds to reach advisory criteria of 45 mph. The winds may ease off after 6 pm HST this evening but we elected to maintain the advisory level winds for most of the tonight period. So, may be a bit over done but prefer to err on the high end. The sensors atop Haleakala are apparently down, so are relying on the models for this wind advisory.

Third, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) due to winds has been expanded to cover all Hawaiian waters including Maalaea Bay Maui, and this SCA is good until 6 amd HST Sunday.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION… A cold front is located 210 miles northwest of Kauai this evening, just west of buoy 51001 and 51101 as of 7 pm HST. Over Kauai, breezy and gusty low level southwest winds of 30 knots are being noted on the derived radar winds from the Kauai NEXRAD. The southerly winds will be strengthening over the other smaller islands at the progresses. Satellite imagery shows lots of layered clouds covering the smaller islands. Radar imagery shows one batch of showers moving through Kauai with more stratiform type rains following it. There also a thunderstorm about 110 miles southwest of Port Allen Kauai that we will be watching closely as the storm moves northeastward at around 25 mph. Conditions will worsen further especially Kauai County with increasing showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the night.

A measure of of the instability of the atmosphere foScattered showers are expected before the next front’s arrival.r severe weather or CAPE, is expected to climb further more the rest of tonight across Kauai and Oahu. Although we do not expect a thunderstorm to become severe over land, there is a good bet to support strong thunderstorms over the surrounding waters of these two counties the rest of tonight, and may spread to Maui County on Saturday. The CAPE values starts lowering Saturday evening as the dynamics starts to lift northward.

Thus far, the speed of the front is about 14 mph, and is a bit slower that what models were saying. Latest GFS has the front reaching Kauai around mid morning Saturday, passing through Lihue at 11 am HST, and Oahu early Saturday evening around 8 pm HST. The dynamics lifts north rapidly and the front is slated to gradually fall apart across Maui County Saturday night into Sunday.

Currently, there have been passing showers for the other smaller islands so far this evening, but more is expected for the rest of the night, especially across Oahu. Some of the showers are falling from the thick layered clouds running well ahead of front. We will be watching closely for the Big Island summits where these layered clouds may pose a threat for precip earlier than expected. The weather there, other than for the warning level winds, will hold up overnight, but may settle in sooner than Saturday night with short spurt of possible snow showers. But other than that, the Big Island is on tap to stay dry.

We will also be looking at a possible wind advisory for Maui’s Haleakala summit for Saturday.

The weather pattern will be evolving into a giant cyclonic gyre across the entire North Pacific Ocean over the weekend, where the main Hawaiian Islands will be under a persistent southwesterly wind flow to until the next front arrives which is about Tuesday night at the earliest. A moderate to locally strong southwest wind flow will reestablish across the area by Sunday night with a bit of strengthening Tuesday a few hours before the arrival of the next front.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM HST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. Cloudy and windy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible late in the afternoon. Highs around 76. Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM HST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. Cloudy and breezy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall, then some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds late in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible late in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 76. South winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM HST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. Cloudy and breezy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible late in the afternoon. Highs 61 to 74. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM HST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Scattered showers through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible late in the afternoon. Highs around 75 at the shore to around 57 at 5000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph shifting to the northwest with gusts to 30 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to the southwest 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 50 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM HST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. Cloudy and breezy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible late in the afternoon. Highs around 75 at the shore to 57 to 63 upcountry. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph shifting to the southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Haleakala Summit

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM HST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. Mostly cloudy. Very windy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible late in the afternoon. Highs around 52 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. Southwest winds 30 to 45 mph. Gusts up to 65 mph increasing to 70 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - February 11th, 2017