4-7 foot
1-4 foot
0-3 foot
1-4 foot

Surf along north and west facing shores will continue to subside through most of today as the old north-northwest swell fades out. The next north-northwest swell is forecast to arrive during the afternoon and build quickly tonight into Sunday morning. This swell will likely produce warning-level surf for north and some west facing shores as it peaks on Sunday, before subsiding on Monday. Will let later shifts make the final decision on high surf warning issuance for this swell.

Another even larger north-northwest swell is forecast to arrive late Tuesday, peaking Tuesday night into Wednesday. This swell will very likely produce warning-level surf on north and west facing shores.

Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels across the Hawaiian coastal waters through today, as a weak ridge lingers across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. This front is forecast to reach Kauai late this afternoon, then move over the central islands tonight, before stalling over Maui County on Sunday. A brief period of increased north-northeast winds is expected soon after the front moves through, with winds possibly reaching SCA levels in some areas around Kauai and Oahu. Gentle to moderate trades will briefly prevail across most areas Sunday into Sunday night as the front dissipates, then winds will swing around to south then southwest Monday into Tuesday as the next front approaches. This front is currently forecast to move down the island chain Tuesday through Wednesday, with winds shifting to north and increasing behind the front. N/NE winds appear likely to reach SCA levels across many areas from Wednesday night or Thursday through the end of next week.

Seas will remain below 10 feet through today, then build rapidly tonight into Sunday morning as the next north-northwest swell moves into the area. This swell will push seas back above 10 feet for many areas. Seas should subside below 10 feet again on Monday, then build rapidly once again late Tuesday into Wednesday as another even larger north-northwest swell arrives.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.2 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.7 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.0 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a of foot at just after midnight

The sunrise was at 06:50 am this morning and will set at 05:46 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 21 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 6:31 AM on Monday, December 18th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 4am September 26th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 9th December 2017

Summary

A weak cold front will approach the state through the day today, reach Kauai this evening, then stall across the central islands Sunday before dissipating. A few showers along and ahead of this front will be possible through early Sunday. Drier and relatively cooler conditions will fill in across the state following the front Sunday through Monday. A stronger front will move southeastward down the island chain Tuesday and Wednesday, with breezy north winds filling in behind it.

Detailed Discussion

The progressive pattern will continue across the region into the upcoming week featuring back-to-back cold fronts and potentially a Kona low developing east of the state late next week. Recently animated water vapor loop showed west-northwest flow aloft over the state between an upper ridge to the west and a broad upper trough to the north, which should hold through the first half of next week. This upper pattern will feature a couple of shortwave troughs diving southeastward across the region, driving two cold fronts toward and through the islands.

The latest short-term (today-Monday) guidance remains in decent agreement and shows the first cold front approaching the state through the day today, reaching Kauai and Oahu this evening, then stalling and dissipating over the central islands Sunday and Sunday night. Similar to the front earlier in the week, moisture will be limited and focused within a narrow band along and ahead of this boundary as it moves down the island chain. Model precipitable water (PW) values do manage to climb to around normal within this band (1.2-1.4″), but mostly confined within the lower levels or up to around 8 KFT from the surface. The hi-res model reflectivities depict a few showers developing over/around the islands out ahead of the front through the day, followed by a narrow line of scattered showers moving over Kauai later this afternoon, Oahu through the evening hours, then to Maui County after midnight tonight. The best chance for showers on Sunday will remain over Maui County and the Big Island where the front is forecast to stall and dissipate. A drier and cooler airmass will follow Sunday through Monday with dewpoints forecast to dip back into the mid 50s. Winds will shift out of the north tonight, then to the east and weaken through the day Sunday. On Monday, the low-level flow will quickly shift out of the south-southwest and increase into the light to moderate range by the end of the day as the next front approaches.

For the extended (Monday night-Friday) period, decent agreement is now shown between the ECMWF and GFS solutions through midweek. They depict the second, stronger, cold front reaching Kauai late Monday night into Tuesday, then clearing the Big Island Wednesday through Wednesday night. A deeper source of moisture along and ahead of this boundary is shown with model PWs climbing above normal (1.5-1.8″). This moisture combined with upper height falls and isentropic lift will translate to better rainfall coverage across the state as is advances down the island chain. Guidance suggests this boundary pushing east of the state with another shot cool and dry air filling in (PWs down toward half of an inch; dewpoints back into the mid 50s) beginning Tuesday night.

Although forecast uncertainty begins to rise through the second half of the upcoming week, the GFS and ECMWF both depict a low developing along this frontal boundary east of the state in response to a cutoff low aloft, then drifting westward and over the islands next weekend. Will continue to monitor later model cycles and refine the forecast over the coming days as confidence rises through this period.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 65. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 68. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 55 to 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 68 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph early in the evening becoming light, then becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Lows around 64 at the shore to around 52 upcountry. Northeast winds up to 10 mph early in the evening becoming light.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the late evening and overnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Photo of the Day