7-10+ foot
4-7+ foot
0-3 foot
2-4+ foot

Due to a diminishing yet still large north-northwest swell, a High Surf Advisory is posted through Friday, with surf along exposed north and west facing shores expected to decrease below advisory levels by the end of the day. Another large north-northwest is expected Saturday night and Sunday, likely producing warning-level surf along most north facing and some west facing shores before diminishing Monday. An even larger north-northwest swell is indicated by forecast models to occur around the middle of next week, once again producing warning-level surf.

Winds will remain well below Small Craft Advisory levels (SCA) through at least Saturday as a nearby surface ridge supports light winds. An approaching front will push the ridge south-east toward the Big Island on Saturday, and then bring a bring short-lived increase in northeast winds late Saturday and Sunday. Winds may briefly reach SCA speeds, especially near Kauai and Oahu, as the front stalls and weakens near the central portion of the island chain. Winds will shift to the east and weaken through Sunday as a weak high moves rapidly from west to east along 28N, and the trailing ridge is shunted toward the islands as another front approaches. The ridge will get pushed well south-east of the islands in advance of the front on Monday, and increasing southwest winds are expected. The front is currently expected to move down the island chain on Tuesday, with winds shifting to the north after it passes.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.4 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.8 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.0 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.4 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:50 am this morning and will set at 05:46 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 20 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 6:31 AM on Monday, December 18th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

73°/75°
Wind: NE at 15 mph
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 6:06 PM
current observations as of 11pm January 15th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Friday, 8th December 2017

Summary

A ridge of high pressure will keep winds light over the islands through Saturday. Most areas will be rain-free, but clouds, and possibly a few showers, will focus over island interiors Saturday afternoon. A weak cold front will move down the chain later Saturday and Saturday night, bringing an increase in northerly winds and a narrow band of clouds and showers. The front may push south of the Big Island Sunday morning as it dissipates, and winds will diminish as they turn back toward more typical trades. Yet another front will move down the chain early next week.

Detailed Discussion

A relatively dry and stable airmass covers the state this evening, with afternoon soundings showing precipitable water near or below an inch, with low inversions and stable lifted index values. Satellite loop shows patchy broken low clouds across Kauai but scattered low clouds to clear skies elsewhere. Radar shows no discernible shower activity.

The current weather pattern will continue for the next day or so, but with some subtle changes. The subtropical ridge will remain over or near the islands through Friday night, keeping our winds light and variable. Some limited remnant moisture associated with an old front to the north of the islands will sink southward towards us overnight. This should not be enough to keep land breezes from clearing out across most areas tonight, but on Saturday there could be a few more afternoon clouds and a spotty shower or two, mainly over island interiors.

A weak cold front will approach Kauai later Saturday which could increase clouds and showers there late in the day. Models are beginning to show otherwise, but until recently showed this front pushing down the chain Saturday night with enough low level moisture and convergence to bring a narrow band of clouds and showers down the chain. However, instead of moving through the state, GFS now shows the front stalling across the island chain and washing out in place during the day Sunday. If this depiction persists through the 06Z run, we will adjust Sunday’s POP/Sky/Wx grids for more cloud cover and moisture.

The surface ridge will push south of the islands early next week, allowing a slightly stronger cold front to reach the islands Monday night. Ahead of the front, winds will turn to locally breezy southwesterlies on Monday, and increase a little more Monday night, possibly to locally windy levels. Not expecting a lot of problems at this point, but will keep an eye on model trends since southwesterly winds can have more impacts, particularly from climatological- windward side downslope accelerations. The front will be followed by a reinforcing surge of cool, dry, brisk northerlies with low precipitable water values through the middle of next week. These will turn to windy trades by Thursday as a strong high pushes north of the islands.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY. Mostly clear. Lows 55 to 60. Light winds.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Sunny. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the west in the afternoon.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY. Mostly clear. Lows 50 to 61. Light winds.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY. Mostly clear. Lows 57 to 63 at the shore to around 46 at 5000 feet. Light winds.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 at the shore to 63 to 71 upcountry. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

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