10-15+ foot
5-8 foot
0-3 foot
1-4 foot

The active pattern across the northern Pacific is forecast to continue through the upcoming weekend with reinforcing moderate to large north and northwest swells expected across the Hawaiian waters into next week. The first in the series peaked Wednesday, which drove surf along exposed coasts well above warning levels. The morning observations at the offshore buoys north and northwest of the islands remain elevated, but have started to slowly lower. Surf will respond and begin to ease later today, likely dropping below warning levels by this evening.

A reinforcement out of 320 deg from the same gale- to storm-force low that has essentially stalled over the Aleutians just east of the Date Line in the past 24 hrs is forecast to begin filling in this evening, peak tonight, then gradually lower through Saturday. This reinforcement will support advisory-level surf holding through the day Friday before lowering Friday night through Saturday.

The third in the series of large swell events is forecast to fill in Saturday night, peak Sunday, then slowly lower into the beginning of the upcoming week. This source will be associated with a gale- to storm-force low that has developed near the Aleutians this morning tracking east-southeastward around the Date Line. A decent sized fetch setting up from this source is forecast to focus energy toward the state within the 340-350 deg directional band (more northerly source) today. Surf along north facing shores will likely reach warning levels late Saturday night and hold through Sunday before dropping to advisory levels Sunday night.

For the long range, guidance remains in good agreement and shows a compact storm-force low lifting northeastward near the Kurils late tonight through early Saturday focusing enough energy at the islands within the 320-330 deg directional band that will support another reinforcing swell. Provided this source being around 2500 nm away, expect forerunners to fill in within the 20+ sec bands by Tuesday if this storm materializes. Although confidence remains low this far out, surf could near advisory levels for north and west facing shores as this swell peaks Tuesday through Wednesday. A gradual downward trend will likely follow through the second half of the week.

Fresh to strong trades are forecast to increase into the strong to near gale category over the weekend as strong high pressure builds north of the state. This combined with reinforcing moderate to large northwest swells will translate to small craft advisory conditions across most waters continuing through the weekend and the first half of next week. In addition to the increasing winds locally and just upstream, surf along east facing shores will become rough, likely reaching advisory levels over the weekend into early next week.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.66 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.86 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.56 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.36 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 06:48 am this morning and will set at 05:45 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 29 days old, and is in a New Moon phase. The next Waxing Crescent will occur at 2:54 PM on Thursday, November 15th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 11am December 14th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Thursday, 6th December 2018

Summary

Trade winds will weaken through tonight as high pressure to the northeast of the islands moves away. Leftover moisture from a front passing north of the state will reach the islands this weekend, with an upper level trough passing from west to east. This will increase shower activity through the weekend. A strong high pressure system building in northwest of the region will bring strong trade winds which will continue through early next week.

Detailed Discussion

A 1020 mb high about 400 miles north of the main Hawaiian islands continues to drive moderate trade winds across the area this morning. Our airmass remains very dry and quite stable, with less than an inch of PW noted in overnight soundings, along with positive lifted index values and a strong subsidence inversion base at about 5100 feet. Radar shows little to no rainfall across the area within scant low cloud cover. Satellite loop shows a frontal boundary far northwest of Kauai moving eastward slowly. Models show this front will wash out before reaching the islands, but it will cause trade winds to weaken a bit across the area for the next day or so.

Leftover frontal moisture will sink southward, reaching the islands this weekend. An upper trough will brush by the islands this weekend as well. The combination of the two will cause an increase in shower activity, but not excessively.

Strong high pressure will push in northwest of the islands Saturday and slowly move to the east. This will steepen the pressure gradient over the islands and boost trade winds across the area. Our forecast increases winds to just under advisory threshold across traditionally windier portions of the state Sunday and Monday. However, we may have to issue wind advisories within the next few days if models depict higher wind speeds. Strong trades will persist into early next week as the high moves north of the islands.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 64 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 at the shore to around 66 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67 at the shore to 51 to 56 upcountry. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.