2-4 foot
1-3 foot
0-2 foot
1-3 foot

High pressure well north of the state will shift eastward over the next several days, keeping moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place across the marine area. A Small Craft Advisory remains in place for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through Tuesday. A large northwest swell is expected to move into the region from northwest to southeast Tuesday and Tuesday night, so the SCA will likely need to be expanded to include the remaining marine zones through the end of the work week due to seas at or above the 10 foot threshold. A weakening front will pass by to the north of the islands Wednesday through Thursday, and this should decrease the trade wind speeds a bit, with a strong new high then building northwest of the island chain Thursday night through the weekend, bringing strong trades to the entire marine area. In fact, SCA level winds appear likely across all marine zones over the weekend, with Gales possible in the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island.

The current small northwest swell will slowly fade through Tuesday. Surf associated with this swell will remain well below the advisory level. A new large northwest swell associated with an intense low over the northwest Pacific, will build through the day on Tuesday, peak Tuesday night and Wednesday, then slowly lower through the remainder of the week. Warning level surf is expected along exposed north and west facing shores during the peak of the event, with advisory level surf possibly continuing through Friday.

Short period choppy surf will gradually increase along east facing shores during the first half of the week as trade winds increase to moderate and locally breezy levels. East shore surf will then decrease a bit Wednesday night through Friday due to a slight decrease in the trade winds upstream of the state. Friday night and over the weekend the trades will strengthen once again upstream of the islands, increasing east shore surf, possibly to advisory levels. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the forecast period.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.03 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.93 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.85 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.10 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 06:47 am this morning and will set at 05:45 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 26 days old, and is in a Waning Crescent phase. The next New Moon will occur at 7:21 AM on Friday, December 7th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 8am March 26th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Monday, 3rd December 2018

Summary

A high pressure system north of the state will bring moderate to breezy trade winds through Wednesday as it slowly drifts eastward. A weak cold front will move into the region on Thursday with clouds and showers drifting in from the northwest over the islands on Friday and Saturday. Showers will linger over the Big Island as another high pressure system north of the state brings strong trade winds to the islands lasting through the upcoming weekend.

Detailed Discussion

A 1025 MB high pressure center just north of the Hawaiian Islands will drift slowly eastward producing moderate to breezy trade winds through Wednesday. Stronger winds are likely to develop on the summits of Maunaloa and Maunakea on Tuesday and Wednesday. Elevated moisture and unstable clouds linger just to the east of the Big Island this morning associated with the remnants of a dissipated cold front. These unstable clouds will recycle back towards the west, increasing the trade wind inversion heights, and producing enhanced trade wind showers through Wednesday.

A drier trade wind pattern will develop on Thursday ahead of a shallow cold frontal band of clouds and showers approaching this islands from the northwest. The latest model guidance shows this frontal cloud band reaching Kauai on Friday morning and Oahu by Friday afternoon and evening. The latest American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models show cloud heights only up to 10,000 feet with this frontal passage. At these cloud depths showers will tend to favor windward and mountain areas with scattered showers drifting over leeward areas along the frontal cloud zone. The cold front will diminish as it passes through the islands. Trade winds will increase behind the front with breezy to locally windy conditions expected through the weekend, with wind speeds approaching Wind Advisory levels on Saturday and Sunday.

The overall weather pattern this week looks fairly consistent with moderate to breezy trade winds through Thursday resulting in mostly windward and mauka showers. Global weather models are in decent agreement with this forecast solution in a high confidence trade wind weather pattern. The biggest challenges to the forecast might develop in the timing and intensity of the showers during the cold frontal passage on Friday and Saturday. However the timing on the frontal rainfall will likely improve later this week as the forecast time period grows shorter.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Breezy. Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Breezy. Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 71 at the shore to around 54 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 at the shore to 53 to 59 upcountry. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.