5-8 foot
3-5 foot
0-3 foot
5-8 foot

The north-northwest (330 deg) swell that peaked over the past couple of days will continue to ease through the weekend. Surf associated with this source along exposed north and west facing shores will respond and trend down. The high surf advisory for north facing shores has been dropped this morning.

The latest surface analysis showed a large gale-force low (964 mb) parked over the western Bering Sea. Satellite data showed a persistent area of gale-force westerly winds to its south over the far northwest Pacific centered around the 320 degree directional band relative to the islands. Altimetry data over this fetch region has been showing seas hovering around 25 ft (was 30 ft Thursday night) over the past couple of days. Wave model guidance supports long-period forerunners associated with this source filling in across the local waters through the day Sunday and Sunday night out of the northwest (320 deg), then building into the upcoming week. This source will become reinforced Monday night through midweek as a decent sized area of gales develop out of the north trailing a cold front projected to move down the island chain.

Surf along exposed north and west facing shores associated with this active pattern could near advisory levels again Monday, then potentially reach warning levels Tuesday through midweek as the reinforcing northerly swell and strong northerly winds fill in behind the front.

Large surf associated with this northerly swell coinciding with strong northerly winds, peak monthly tides, and beach erosion from recent large surf events could translate to some overwash onto vulnerable roadways Monday night through Wednesday. The best chance for overwash will be centered around the early morning high tide cycles Tuesday through Wednesday (prior to daybreak).

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through the weekend due to the strong trades expected. Additionally, a reinforcing northeast (050 deg) swell associated with low pressure developing several hundred nm northeast of the state will likely keep the surf elevated along east facing shores early next week as the winds shift around out of the north. Satellite data already depicts this scenario evolving around 1000 nm northeast of the state this morning.

Surf along south facing shores will come up slightly through the weekend due to low pressure that tracked south-southeast of New Zealand last weekend. A similar source will be possible by midweek.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.7 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.8 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.8 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.6 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:46 am this morning and will set at 05:45 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 14 days old, and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 7:53 AM on Sunday, December 10th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

65°/°
Wind: SE at 5 mph
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:45 PM
current observations as of 3am December 11th, 2017

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 2nd December 2017

Summary

High pressure north of the state will keep breezy to locally windy trades blowing through the weekend. Unsettled weather will continue today due to deep tropical moisture and an upper trough in the vicinity of the islands, although gradually improving conditions are expected as the weekend progresses. The trade winds will ease on Monday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front along with a band of showers is expected to move southward through the island chain Monday night and Tuesday followed by strong north to northeast winds. Cooler, drier and very pleasant conditions are expected for the middle and latter part of next week.

Detailed Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1031 mb high is located around 1150 miles off to the north-northeast of Honolulu, and is driving breezy to locally windy trades across the island chain early this morning. Aloft, an upper level trough is oriented west-southwest to east northeast, just to the north of Kauai. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy to overcast conditions across the state, with radar imagery showing numerous showers moving into windward areas, particularly from Oahu eastward to the Big Island, with some showers reaching leeward areas as well. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and the locally strong trade winds through the weekend.

Today through Sunday, Deep moisture will slowly decrease today and tonight as the upper level troughing shifts southward through the islands. Precipitable water (PW) values currently range from 1.2 inches over Kauai to 1.9 inches over the Big Island based on the 12Z soundings from PHLI and PHTO. PW values are expected to steadily drop today and tonight, falling to 1 inch or below by daybreak Sunday. As a result, we should see wet trade wind continue across the entire island chain this morning, with conditions improving over the Kauai and Oahu this afternoon, while remaining rather wet over Maui County and the Big Island. Conditions will further improve over the western islands tonight, with shower coverage also diminishing over Maui County and to a lesser extent across the Big Island. Much nicer weather is expected statewide for Sunday as PW values drop into the 0.7 to 0.9 inch range, and upper level ridging builds southward helping to further stabilize conditions across the island chain. Shower coverage will remain highest over the Big Island Sunday morning, with fairly dry conditions expected statewide by Sunday afternoon.

Breezy to locally windy trades are expected through the weekend as the gradient remains tight across the island chain due to high pressure north-northeast of the state. A few locations continue to meet or exceed Wind Advisory thresholds from time to time. With the trades expected to strengthen further Today and Tonight before easing a bit on Sunday, a Wind Advisory remains in effect for the island of Lana`i, as well as leeward Kohala and the Kohala mountain areas on the Big Island where the strongest winds are expected.

Precipitation has diminished considerably over the Big Island over the last couple hours, and with a drier airmass building in today, the threat for Winter Weather has decreased. As a result, the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled.

Sunday night through Friday, A cold front will approach from the northwest Sunday night and Monday, easing the trade winds across the island chain. The front is expected to shift southward through the western islands Monday night and through the rest of the state on Tuesday. Strong north- northeasterly winds are expected to build in behind the front. The strong winds should occur for a relatively brief period however, as high pressure will quickly settle southward toward the state Tuesday night and Wednesday, then over or just to the north of the islands Thursday through Friday. As a result, light to moderate trades on Wednesday will become light statewide Thursday through Friday.

As for sensible weather details, rather dry conditions are expected Sunday night and Monday, with PW values running in the 0.7 to 0.9 inches. A band of clouds and showers is expected to shift southward through the islands Monday night and Tuesday, followed by very dry conditions, along with cooler temperatures, lower humidity and plenty of sunshine from Wednesday right through the end of the work week.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy. Windy. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 70. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 67 to 72 at the shore to around 53 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 68 at the shore to 52 to 57 upcountry. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Windy. Scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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