5-8+ foot
4-6 foot
0-2 foot
4-6 foot

Winds over the coastal waters have been veering from the southeast to south as a low northwest of the area tracks to the east. A front associated with the low will begin affecting the islands today through, at least, tonight. The feature will bring widespread showers and periods of thunderstorms to much of the area, which may include lightning, low visibilities, and strong and gusty winds.

A reinforcing north-northwest swell has begun turning more northerly. Surf along east facing shores with a more northern exposure will likely see elevated surf for the smaller islands, and later this morning for the Big Island. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is posted for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Maui, Molokai, and the Big Island through this afternoon.

The low mentioned above is forecast to move to a position north of the state around Wednesday. Model runs have backed off a bit on the strength of the winds in the fetch directed at the islands. Thus, surf is now expected to stay just below HSA criteria for north facing shores. A HSA for the exposed east facing shores would become more likely. The swell, however, is highly dependent on the position and strength of the low.

Most south facing shores may see a slight bump in surf this week from a series of small long-period south-southwest and southwest swells.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 1.0 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, rising to a high of 1.9 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of 0.4 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.4 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:59 am this morning and will set at 05:54 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 8 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 2:25 AM on Tuesday, January 2nd.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 4am October 22nd, 2018

Weather Outlook for Tuesday, 26th December 2017

Summary

A cold front will approach from the northwest today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the western islands this morning, then spread eastward into Maui County and the Big Island this afternoon and tonight. A cold front will shift eastward across the state Wednesday and Wednesday night, bringing improving conditions and a decrease in showers in its wake. Trade winds along with drier and more stable conditions will begin to return on Thursday, with locally breezy trade wind weather feature mainly windward and mauka showers then expected through early next week.

Detailed Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1004 mb low is located around 500 miles northwest of Kauai, with a weakening ridge of high pressure centered around 1000 miles northeast of Honolulu. Light to locally moderate southeasterly winds are in place across the eastern islands, with southerly winds over the western end of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows increasing cloudiness, particularly over the central and western islands. Meanwhile, radar imagery shows increasing particularly over Oahu and to the west of Kauai, with some windward shower activity over Maui and the Big Island as well. Main short term concern continues to revolve around the storm system that will move through the island chain today through Wednesday.

Today through Wednesday night, Model solutions remain in decent agreement showing an area of low pressure tracking eastward to the north of the state today and tonight, with a trailing cold front approaching from the northwest. The cold front is then expected to shift slowly eastward across the island chain Wednesday and Wednesday night, exiting east of the Big Island around or shortly after daybreak on Thursday.

Deep moisture will increase on southerly (Kona) winds in advance of a cold front today. Showers will increase across Kauai and Oahu this morning, then spread into Maui County this afternoon into this evening, and into the Big Island tonight. The front will be weakening as it pushes slowly eastward across the island chain Wednesday and Wednesday night. A trailing band of clouds and showers associated with the front, along with another shortwave trough moving overhead, will keep conditions somewhat unsettled, particularly from Oahu eastward to the Big Island.

Attention then turns to the potential for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms moving across the state in association with the approaching storm system. Increasing deep layer moisture in combination with strong forcing for ascent provided by a sharp negatively tilted upper level trough, is expected to lead to thunderstorm development across the western and central islands this morning and continuing through tonight. Although conditions are not as ominous as the models depicted 24 hours ago, ingredients still remain favorable for organized convection over the western and central islands. Surface based CAPE values are expected to climb into the 1000 to 1500 J/KG range, with H7 to H5 lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/KM, and 0-6 KM Bulk shear values of 30 to 40 knots. As a result, we expect increasing thunderstorm development beginning this morning and continuing through tonight as the deepest moisture and strongest forcing for ascent most closely align. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong and possibly severe from Kauai eastward into Maui County. The main hazards from the strongest storms that move through the area are expected to be straight line damaging winds and hail.

Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the thunderstorms as they move through the area as well, but given the strong deep layer flow, the thunderstorms should be progressive and not linger in any particular location for an extended period of time. As a result, flash flooding is not anticipated.

Additionally, University of Hawaii’s Vog Model shows the plume from Kilauea remaining over the smaller islands today, resulting in hazy conditions. Vog will decrease over Kauai and Oahu tonight as showers scour out some of the vog and the flow turns more southwesterly. The southwesterlies are then expected to pull the vog plume off of Maui by daybreak Wednesday, but it will continue to affect windward Big Island through at least Wednesday night.

Last of all, winds are expected to increase to advisory levels over the Big Island summits later today and continue through tonight. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Big Island summits beginning at noon today and running through 6 AM Wednesday.

Thursday through next Tuesday, More settled weather will overspread the island chain as high pressure builds in to the north of the state, and the cold front continues to shift eastward and away from the area. Moderate north-northeasterly winds are expected behind the front, with moderate trades then returning Friday through early next week. More typical trade wind weather is expected statewide, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas through the period.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Haze through the night. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 61 to 66. South winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Haze. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 63 to 69. Southwest winds up to 10 mph until early morning becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 62 to 81. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 74 to 80 at the shore to around 66 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Haze through the night. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 66 at the shore to 49 to 55 upcountry. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible after midnight. Lows around 41 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

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