4-6+ foot
2-4+ foot
1-3 foot
0-1 foot

An incoming north-northwest swell has shown signs of reaching Buoy 51101 to the northwest of the islands overnight. Expect this swell to increase over the next few hours, and will likely reach Kauai by this afternoon. A High Surf Advisory has been posted for the north and west shores of Kauai and Niihau, and the north facing shores of Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Advisory level surf will likely reach the central islands late today or this evening. The Big Island shores will likely reach advisory levels tonight. Expecting the swell to peak tonight and then begin to subside tomorrow.

The Small Craft Advisory remains posted for waters around Maui County and the Big Island due to the strong winds. Winds are expected to veer from a north to northeast direction to a more typical trade wind direction today, and drop below SCA levels later today.

Seas associated with this swell will bring SCA conditions to the waters as early as midday today to the northern waters, and spread down the island chain into the evening hours. Overnight Saturday, seas will begin drop below 10 feet over the northern waters, but will linger above 10 feet for the southern half through Sunday. Have issued the SCA for the waters that will be impacted by the swell through Sunday. Some areas will likely see seas drop below 10 feet before the end of the day on Sunday.

A slightly bigger, north-northwest swell will arrive next week Wednesday, likely resulting in advisory level surf for north facing shores. A small, long period south swell is expected to arrive Monday afternoon or evening, and persist into the middle of the week.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.3 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.8 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.1 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.4 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:58 am this morning and will set at 05:52 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 5 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 2:25 AM on Tuesday, January 2nd.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 11pm October 22nd, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 23rd December 2017

Summary

Cool, locally breezy trade winds will continue through the weekend, bringing periods of cloudiness and a few light showers to north and east facing slopes and coasts. Trade winds will weaken Monday and shift to the south Monday night as a front approaches, with locally gusty southwest winds possible on Tuesday. The front is expected to bring showers as it stalls near the islands around the middle of next week. Increasing trade winds are in the forecast for Thursday and Friday.

Detailed Discussion

The current weather pattern over the islands is characterized by cool NE winds that are delivering varying amounts of stable low clouds to N and E facing slopes and coasts, while leeward areas are mostly clear. While areas exposed to the wind remain somewhat breezy, light winds are being observed in sheltered leeward areas. 12Z soundings show the base of a robust subsidence inversion between 4000′ and 5000′, thus precluding most of the incoming low clouds from producing much (if any) precipitation. Area radars have been detecting only isolated light showers, and have been switched to clear-air mode. Although low-impact, the biggest short-term forecast challenge hinges on the ability of the low clouds to produce measurable precipitation, with the current forecast expecting little.

A relatively weak 1023 mb surface high is centered about 800 miles N of the islands, while a deep-layer complex low dominates the area just E of the islands, thus supporting the NE low-level winds. The low cloud field upstream of the islands is dominated by broken to overcast stratocumulus that are prone to dissipate/develop in response to gravity waves, as well as daytime heating/overnight cooling, thereby complicating the windward sky forecast.

The surface high will track rapidly NE through Sunday, with persistent troughing remaining just E of the area. This evolution is expected to allow winds to back to the ENE and weaken slightly today. However, a new high building far NW of the area Sunday is expected to bring a slight increase in trade winds as they briefly back toward the NE again, with latest GFS guidance indicating that some moisture pooled E of the islands will move into windward Big Island Sunday and Sunday night. As this high tracks E and dissipates on Christmas Day, a developing low passing relatively close to the N of the islands will lead to weakening E winds that will allow this moisture to slide NW toward Maui county.

By Monday night, the flow is expected to become southerly, with this moisture moving NE of the islands. Increasing SW winds are expected Tuesday as the low approaches, with this convergent low-level flow bringing showers over the islands from the SW, thereby focusing them over leeward areas. Moisture associated with the front may linger in the area on Wednesday as it gradually dissipates, with forecast models still waivering on the details.

A new high building far NW of the area may bring increasing NE winds Thursday and Friday. The very low confidence forecast for New Year’s Eve/Day features a fairly typical trade wind flow.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Sunny and breezy. Highs 76 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly clear. Breezy. A 20 percent chance of light showers in the evening. Lows 61 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. A 20 percent chance of light showers. Highs 59 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph until late afternoon.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of light showers. Highs around 76 at the shore to around 62 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Lows around 64 at the shore to 48 to 53 upcountry. East winds up to 10 mph early in the evening becoming light.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of light showers. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. Light winds becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the late evening and overnight.

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