4-6+ foot
2-4 foot
0-2 foot
1-3 foot

A weakening front will move through Maui today, then dissipate over the eastern end of the island chain tonight. Light to moderate northerly winds are expected behind the front, with the wind direction shifting around to the northeast tonight. Ahead of the front, light and variable winds are expected today, with winds becoming northeasterly tonight.

High pressure will then build north of the island chain Sunday through early next week, bringing a return of moderate to locally breezy trade winds through the first half of the work week. The trades may diminish a bit Wednesday into early Thursday as a weakening cold front approaches from the northwest. Strong high pressure building northwest of the state is then forecast to usher in strong trade winds across the island chain late Thursday into the next weekend.

The latest buoy observations as of 3 AM indicate that the current northwest swell is beginning to peak at Hanalei, while continuing to build at Waimea Bay. The swell will bring High Surf Advisory (HSA) level surf to north and west facing shores of Kauai and Niihau through the morning hours, but should drop below advisory levels by noon based on upstream buoy observations at NOAA Buoys 51001 and 51101. Also due to the elevated swell, Small Craft Advisory level seas will affect the exposed waters of Kauai and Niihau through noon today.

A much larger northwest swell is expected to fill in on Tuesday, peak on Wednesday, then slowly decrease through the end of the work week. Although the storm has yet to develop, the latest model guidance continues to show a hurricane force low developing east of Hokkaido, Japan this weekend, with a large area of Gale to Storm force winds directed at the islands. So far, Wave Watch has a max 12 to 13 foot swell at 18 to 20 seconds. These figures translate to warning level surf for the north and west shores of Kauai, Niihau, Oahu, and Molokai, and at least advisory level surf for north facing shores of Maui and the Big Island. Wave heights will likely be smaller than the northwest swell event from last week, but still in the extra large category.

Minimal surf is expected along south and east facing shores this weekend. The boost in the trades next week will bring an increase in surf along the east facing shores, but heights should remain below HSA levels. Waters will be rough and choppy as well, and with the potential strong trade winds and extra large northwest swell, seas will likely exceed the SCA threshold of 10 feet, for the marine zones not covered by the strong trade winds.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 0.91 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, rising to a high of 2.06 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of 0.26 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.69 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 06:45 am this morning and will set at 05:44 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 24 days old, and is in a Waning Crescent phase. The next New Moon will occur at 7:21 AM on Friday, December 7th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 8am March 26th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 1st December 2018

Summary

A weakening cold front over Maui this morning will continue to weaken as it moves to the Big Island today. Some clouds and showers are associated with the front. Northerly winds filtering in behind the front are bringing cooler and drier air over Kauai which will spread to Oahu and portions of Maui County later today. Showers are expected to linger over the Big Island into the start of the new week as trades build in as a new high pressure system sets up north of the islands.

Detailed Discussion

No significant changes to the forecast with the morning package. The cold front over Maui this morning continues to weaken as it moves down the island chain. Last evening, a defined band of rain began to move over Moloka`i, but the band is no longer very defined. The back end of the cloud band is over Oahu this morning, but is also starting to dissipate. Anticipating plenty of sunshine to begin the day on Kauai and to quickly spread to Oahu. Clouds will likely linger over Maui County this morning, but it appears rainfall will be limited. Have backed of on the PoPs for the Big Island this morning, as the front weakening and the mostly clear skies overhead at 3 am. Anticipate more clouds and showers over the Big Island this afternoon.

Cool, dry air has moved into Kauai, and should spread over Oahu this morning. Dewpoints on Kauai have dropped into the low 50s overnight and into the mid 60s on Oahu. The northerly winds behind the front ushering in this cooler air will be short lived, as a new high pressure moving in to the northwest will move to the east, and turn winds to the northeast by tomorrow over the smaller islands and tomorrow night over the Big Island. Trade winds are expected to build as we head into the middle of the week as the high moves to the northeast of the islands.

A front that will pass to the north of the islands during the second half of the week could bring some more moisture into the islands. While most of the shower activity would be focused over the windward and mauka areas, increased moisture sinking in from the north could bring showers to other areas. A new strong high pressure system moving in northwest of the islands at the end of the week which will bring stronger trades to the region as we head towards next weekend.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 60 to 66. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 56 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 66 at the shore to around 49 at 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then clear after midnight. Lows around 64 at the shore to 48 to 53 upcountry. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.