8-12 foot
6-10 foot
0-3 foot
4-6 foot

The current north-northwest swell peaked across the coastal waters during the afternoon and early evening hours on Monday, and has been slowly declining overnight. Upstream buoys and wave guidance show that this decline will continue today. The high surf warning has been dropped and replaced by a high surf advisory for north and west facing shores of the smaller islands, while the high surf advisory continues for the north facing shores of the Big Island. Expect surf to drop below advisory levels by late this afternoon.

This swell continues to produce seas at or above 10 feet across some windward waters, and the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through today for the Maui County and Big Island windward zones. Seas should drop below 10 feet in those areas during the afternoon.

The next north-northwest swell is expected to arrive Tuesday, then peak Tuesday night into Wednesday. This swell is forecast to be even larger than the current swell, and is expected to produce warning- level surf on north and west facing shores of the smaller islands. Surf on the north facing shores of the Big Island will probably reach advisory levels in some areas, but with a lot of local variations due to the expected 330 degree direction of this swell. This swell will also bring seas back above 10 feet across most of the marine area, beginning as early as midday Tuesday for the far northwest waters, and spreading across the rest of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The next cold front is forecast to move down the island chain Tuesday through Wednesday morning, with northerly winds increasing behind the front. Winds behind this front will likely reach SCA levels across much of the area by Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 1.0 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, rising to a high of 1.9 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of 0.3 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.6 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:52 am this morning and will set at 05:47 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 23 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 6:31 AM on Monday, December 18th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

73°/75°
Wind: NE at 15 mph
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 6:06 PM
current observations as of 11pm January 15th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Monday, 11th December 2017

Summary

A cold front located around 500 miles northwest of Kauai will approach the state through the day today, then move down the island chain Tuesday morning through Wednesday. Winds will remain light today, then shift out of the southwest and strengthen tonight ahead of the front. Breezy north winds and relatively cooler conditions will fill in behind the front Tuesday through Thursday, with unsettled weather possible from Friday into the upcoming weekend.

Detailed Discussion

Satellite imagery and observations showed a band of clouds associated with a dissipated front that had stalled over the state Sunday slowly retreating northward. Showers within this band remain light with the best coverage located over the adjacent waters from Oahu to Kauai. This cloud band will continue to lift northward as a shortwave trough and its attendant cold front approach the region from the north. Ahead of this front, winds will remain light with the background flow shifting from the south-southeast this morning to the southwest later today into tonight, likely giving way to sea breezes this afternoon.

The latest hi-res model guidance remains in good agreement tonight through midweek and brings this next cold front over Kauai early Tuesday, then east of the state by Wednesday night. A better source of moisture associated with this next boundary combined with upper height falls and isentropic ascent will likely translate to decent rainfall coverage across the state. Model reflectivities depict pre-frontal showers developing over the northwest islands later today through tonight, followed by the main band of showers along the front that should reach Kauai Tuesday morning, Oahu through the early afternoon hours, then the rest of the islands Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another shot of cool and dry air will fill in (PWs down toward half of an inch; dewpoints back into the mid/upper 50s) behind this front Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds will shift out of the north-northeast and become breezy Wednesday through Thursday.

For the extended period, the latest GFS/ECMWF/CMC model cycles continue to indicate that the shortwave will develop into a cutoff low just E of the islands on Thursday, and then drift W over the islands Friday through the weekend. If this scenario evolves, island weather would become very active, with the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms, as well as snowfall and high winds at the Big Island summits. However, some of the ensemble solutions depict the upper low remaining centered east of the islands, which would correspond to a drier solution. Provided these differences, no significant changes are introduced in this morning package through this extended period.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny. Highs 82 to 87. Light winds.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 59 to 66. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph after midnight.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny. Haze in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 65 to 84. Light winds.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny. Highs around 82 at the shore to around 68 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph late in the afternoon.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Clear. Lows around 62 at the shore to around 50 upcountry. South winds up to 10 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Clear and breezy. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

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