0-3 foot
0-2 foot
1-4 foot
2-4 foot

A combination of moderate to fresh breezes locally and upstream of the islands and a small easterly swell associated with former Kenneth across the eastern Pacific are generating near advisory-level surf along east facing shores. This will likely hold through the day today, then trend down as the trades and swell ease Sunday into early next week.

Surf along south facing shores is expected to come up slightly today as a southwest (220 deg) swell from a Tasman source fills in. The buoys south of the islands are depicting this source within the 15 second band (quite small). This source will slowly ease into early next week. A combination of this southwest swell and small reinforcing small southeast (150 deg) swells will keep the surf from going flat early next week.

For the extended, a more notable south (180 deg) swell is expected to fill in and impact the south facing shores of the islands Thursday into the upcoming holiday weekend. A recent ASCAT pass showed a large batch of gales focused toward the state several hundred miles east of New Zealand. The most recent altimeter pass within this region of gale-force southerly winds showed seas up to 30 ft. This is lining up well with the latest wave model guidance, which depicts a 3 ft swell at 16-17 sec filling in across the local waters by Friday. Provided the tendency to slightly under-forecast these southerly sources, advisory-level surf is not out of question for south facing shores Friday into the weekend.

Small craft advisory conditions are forecast to continue through tonight due to strong trade winds across the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, Maalaea Bay and the waters south of the Big Island. Trades are expected to drop below small craft criteria Sunday through the first half of the upcoming week due to a weakness developing within the ridge axis as a front passes well north of the region. Fresh to strong trades will temporarily return through the midweek period as as high pressure builds northeast of the region.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Hawaii Swell Height Model


Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 1.7 foot at 5:24 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.8 foot at 11:04 AM shortly before noon, then rising to a high of 1.8 foot at 4:59 PM late this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.5 foot at 11:40 PM shortly before midnight

The sunrise was at 06:07 am this morning and will set at 06:47 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 5 days old, and is in a Waxing Crescent phase. The next First Quarter will occur at 8:14 AM on Tuesday, August 29th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

90°/93°
Wind: N at 9 mph
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 5:55 PM
current observations as of 2pm October 22nd, 2017

Weather Outlook for Saturday

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through tonight, then weaken Sunday into the upcoming week. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations each day. Moisture moving in from the southeast will support increasing shower coverage over the Big Island Sunday, then over the smaller islands Monday through midweek. Breezy trades and drier air will return through the second half of the week.

The latest surface analysis and observations showed a ridge of high pressure extending from east to west across much of the Pacific and moderate trade winds over and around the islands. Overnight rainfall has been limited, with the best coverage observed over the windward areas of the Big Island. The early morning rainfall summary (245 am HST) showed peak 12 hr totals ranging from 1-1.5″ at Kawainui Stream and Saddle Quarry on the Big Island. Elsewhere, mostly dry and stable conditions have prevailed. The Lihue sounding reflects this dry air with a precipitable water (PW) coming in at 1.07″, which is below average. This dry trend is expected to continue through tonight.

The short-term model guidance remains in decent agreement Sunday through the first half of the upcoming week and depicts a surge of moisture associated with a weak trough passing well south of the area spreading across the Big Island Sunday, then over the smaller northwest islands Monday through Tuesday. Model PWs are forecast to climb toward the 2″ mark through this period, which is above normal for this time of year. As a result, the best rainfall chances are expected through this period. A combination of increasing moisture and lighter trade winds could translate to better cloud and shower coverage over some of the leeward areas Monday and Tuesday, mainly through the afternoon and evening periods. Although upper heights are forecast to lower through this time due to an upper trough, the better instability associated with it is forecast to remain north and northwest of Kauai.

For the extended, trade winds are forecast to strengthen by the middle of next week as high pressure builds to the northeast. The previously discussed surge of moisture is forecast to shift west of the islands (PWs trending down toward normal). Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations each day Wednesday through Friday. Trade winds may then trend down as we head into the Labor Day holiday weekend as a weakness within the ridge axis develops in response to another front passing to the north.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 57 to 69. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 67 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Lows around 67 at the shore to 51 to 56 upcountry. East winds up to 10 mph early in the evening becoming light.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 46 to 51. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - August 26th, 2017