4-6 foot
4-6++ foot
5-8++ foot
4-6++ foot

Hurricane Lane, currently located around 225 nautical miles south of Kailua-Kona, is now tracking toward the northwest around 6 knots and is forecast to pass very close to the leeward waters of the smaller islands Thursday through Saturday. Conditions have already begun to deteriorate over the Big Island and Maui County waters due to a large area of heavy showers and strengthening winds. A similar trend is expected across the Oahu and Kauai waters late tonight through the day Thursday as Lane approaches.

Impacts associated with Lane tonight through Saturday will include: hazardous seas, life-threatening surf (warning level; quickly building overnight through Thursday night), beach erosion, overwash onto vulnerable coastal roadways as Lane makes its closest approach, and storm surge (surge guidance estimating ranges from 2 to 5 feet with impacts potentially occurring on all islands) along exposed coasts/harbors.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 1.34 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.03 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 2.46 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.79 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 06:06 am this morning and will set at 06:49 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 12 days old, and is in a Waxing Gibbous phase. The next Full Moon will occur at 11:58 AM on Sunday, August 26th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 5am September 26th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Thursday, 23rd August 2018

Summary

Outer rain bands of Hurricane Lane are sweeping across the Big Island and Maui this evening. Expect increasing showers spreading further northwest to the rest of Maui County and Oahu later tonight and to Kauai by Thursday morning. Expect increasing threats for flash flooding as Lane moves northwestward and these heavy rain bands intensify over the islands. Hurricane Lane will likely bring life threatening conditions across Hawaii through Saturday with damaging winds, dangerous surf, coastal storm surge and intense flooding rains.

Detailed Discussion

Please note that tropical cyclone operations are in effect. To incorporate the latest forecast information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), public forecast updates from the Honolulu Forecast Office will be delayed to immediately follow the latest forecast package from CPHC.

The outer rain bands from Hurricane Lane are surging northward this evening across the Big Island and eastern Maui County. Expect the deep unstable tropical moisture to spread these clouds and showers across the rest of the state this evening. Shower intensity within these bands will increase as Hurricane Lane approaches the islands with rapidly increasing threats for flash flooding as Lane moves northwestward. Hurricane Lane will likely bring life threatening conditions across Hawaii through Saturday with damaging winds, dangerous surf, coastal storm surge and intense flooding rains. Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

Expect increasing winds as a strong high pressure ridge far north of the islands interacts with Hurricane Lane approaching the Hawaiian Islands from the south. As of 8 PM HST, Hurricane Lane was located roughly 260 miles south of Kona and moving northwest at 7 MPH. The movement on Lane has slowed a down a bit as the steering flow changes with Lane moving around the upper level ridge axis. The forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) continues to track Lane north-northwest towards the center of the state. Based on the latest CPHC forecast advisory #34 at 8 PM HST the center of Lane will pass roughly 125 miles west of Kona on Friday morning around 8 AM HST.

The location of these damaging wind impacts will depend heavily upon the final track of Hurricane Lane as it tracks. The onset of tropical storm force winds on the Big Island could start by early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected in some areas Thursday afternoon or Thursday night. The highest wind threats for the Big Island will develop along the western slopes of the island as strong and gusty down slope winds interact with mountainous terrain. Over Maui County, damaging tropical storm conditions will likely begin by Thursday, with dangerous hurricane force conditions expected starting on Thursday night into Friday morning. On Oahu, damaging tropical storm conditions could begin late Thursday night into Friday morning, with dangerous hurricane conditions are expected starting Friday afternoon into Friday night. Hurricane Warnings may need to be expanded to include Kauai County as Lane draws closer.

Deep tropical moisture surrounding Lane will also drift northward ahead of the hurricane through the weekend. Extreme moisture levels surrounding Lane will create an unstable environment with muggy and humid weather conditions along with frequent showers. Heavier rain shower bands will develop with some thunderstorm activity as the extreme moisture interacts with mountainous terrain on each island. These conditions will likely lead to periods of hazardous flash flooding threatening all islands. Hence, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire state of Hawaii through Saturday. Flood Advisories and Flash Flood Warnings will likely be issued for local areas across the state as the heavy rain intensifies.

The combination of a deep moist unstable layer and strong low level wind shear along and to the east of the track of Lane will make tornadoes and large waterspouts a distinct possibility in the rainbands across the right semicircle of the hurricane. These continue to be included in the TCV and HLS products as an elevated threat from Oahu to the Big Island. Will be able to better refine the threat as Lane approaches each island.

Unfortunately it’s not possible to know which islands will see the worst storm effects right now due to the close proximity of the hurricane track to the Hawaiian Islands and uncertainties in Lane’s track caused by increasing wind shear through the atmosphere as Lane moves northward. The CPHC forecasts continue to show that all islands are at risk from direct effects from the core of Hurricane Lane. Everyone should take this hurricane very seriously and should prepare accordingly. It’s also important to expect future adjustments to the track and intensity forecast, particularly with the challenging recurvature forecast that Lane is presenting. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Sunday through Tuesday, there remains a considerable amount of uncertainty in the model guidance as to when the deep moisture in the wake of Lane departs the region. The American GFS model continues to show a deep moisture plume lingering over the entire state through the weekend and into the first half of next week. While the European (ECMWF) model shows a large area of drier air moving in with the easterly trade wind flow. We will need to wait to see how fast Lane transits the Hawaiian Islands and watch for the models trending towards a more consistent solution over this time period.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST EARLY THIS MORNING… …FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT… …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT… …HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY. Breezy. Cloudy with frequent showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST EARLY THIS MORNING… …FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT… …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT… …HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY. Breezy. Cloudy with frequent showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 81 to 90. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT… …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT. Breezy. Cloudy with frequent showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 71 to 85. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT… …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT. Breezy. Frequent showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 84 at the shore to around 73 at 5000 feet. East winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST EARLY THIS MORNING… …FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT… …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT… …HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY. Windy. Cloudy with frequent showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 89 at the shore to 75 to 80 upcountry. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Haleakala Summit

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT… …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT. Windy. Cloudy with frequent showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 62 to 75. East winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.