4-6 foot
1-4 foot
0-2 foot
1-3 foot

Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible over the waters through the weekend due to a lingering moisture axis associated with an old frontal boundary and an upper disturbance forecast to move over the region. Fresh to strong trades, strongest over the typically windier areas around Maui County, will hold through tonight, are forecast to weaken through the weekend as a weak surface reflection/trough develops along the aforementioned boundary. Improving conditions are expected late Sunday into next week with a return of fresh to strong trades as high pressure builds north of the region and drier conditions fill in.

A series of northwest swells is expected over the weekend and through the upcoming week. The first in the series has already begun to fill in early this morning at the nearshore buoys. Kauai has already climbed above predicted levels, but should remain below the advisory stage today as it peaks along north and west facing shores. This source will slowly fade through the second half of the weekend.

The second in the series of northwest swells is expected Monday through Tuesday from a recent storm over the far northwest Pacific. Heights associated with this source may reach or near warning levels along north and west facing shores around its peak at some point Monday night. A downward trend out of the northwest is projected through midweek.

Another long-period reinforcement is possible out of the northwest Thursday, which could become reinforced by a larger source out of the same direction Friday into the weekend. Forecast confidence, however, is low being this far out in time.

Surf along east facing shores will begin to rise next week as fresh to strong trades return locally and upstream of the state.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small with very little activity shown within Hawaii’s swell window down south.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

A single tide at Kahului will be foot at

tide at Kahului was foot at just after midnight, of foot at just after midnight, then of foot at just after midnight, before once again of foot at just after midnight

The sunrise was at 06:11 am this morning and will set at 06:43 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 22 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 1:59 AM on Monday, April 16th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 8am August 21st, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 7th April 2018

Summary

A wet weather pattern with a slight chance of thunderstorms will hold through the weekend as an upper level trough passes over the island chain and interacts with an old front. Improving conditions with a drying trend will be possible late Sunday through early next week for western end of the island chain. Clouds and showers will continue through the middle of next week for windward and mauka areas of Big Island and Maui County. A more typical trade wind weather pattern will finally return to the entire state by late next week.

Detailed Discussion

Currently at the surface, a stalled out frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of Maui and the Big Island, with a ridge of high pressure around 500 miles north of Kauai. This is maintaining a moderate trade wind flow across the island chain early this morning. Meanwhile aloft a strong shortwave trough is evident in water vapor imagery around 650 miles west of Kauai. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies in most areas, with radar imagery showing most of the shower activity focused over windward sections of the Big Island. Main short term concerns revolve around the potential for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms through the weekend.

Today through Sunday night, The strong shortwave trough will spread eastward toward the state today, halt its eastward progression in the vicinity of the central islands later tonight and Sunday, then shift eastward and away from the state Sunday night. Meanwhile at the surface, the stationary front is expected to lift northward into the central islands later today through Sunday, before shifting back southward into the eastern islands Sunday night as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Additionally, surface troughing is expected to develop along the frontal boundary later today and tonight, leading to a disruption in the trade wind flow across the island chain. The trades will then begin to return late Sunday and Sunday night from north to south across the western and central islands as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

Deep tropical moisture will remain over the islands through Sunday, with precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range. Some drier air will then begin to push southward into Kauai and Oahu Sunday night, while conditions remain really moist over Maui County and the Big Island. The combination of the deep moisture and shortwave energy over the state will lead to a fairly wet and unstable weekend in most areas, with the potential for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. As a result a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire island chain through 6 PM Sunday.

Monday through Friday, The frontal boundary and associated deep moisture will stall out over the eastern islands Monday through Wednesday keeping conditions wet particularly in windward areas. Over Kauai and Oahu, drier air filtering in from the north will keep scattered showers focused mainly over windward areas with a stray spill over shower reaching leeward areas from time to time during the first half of the work week. A more typical trade wind pattern featuring mainly windward and mauka showers appears to finally return Wednesday night through late next week as the frontal boundary over the eastern end of the state dissipates. The trade winds will slowly overspread the Big Island from north to south Monday and Monday night as high pressure ridging builds to the north of the island chain. Moderate to breezy trade winds are then expected to fill in statewide Tuesday through late next week as a series of high pressure ridges build eastward to the north of the island chain.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms and isolated showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms and isolated showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 68 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 80 at the shore to around 63 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms and isolated showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 83 at the shore to 64 to 69 upcountry. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Haleakala Summit

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 53 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph until late afternoon becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Photo of the Day