4-6+ rising
1-3 foot
0-2 foot
0-3 foot

Fresh to strong northerly winds in the wake of a cold front that is forecast to shift eastward over the Big Island waters through the weekend combined with a rising north-northwest swell (12-13 sec periods) will lead to dangerous boating conditions today. Small craft advisory seas are expected over the exposed northwest waters through the weekend. Winds are forecast to quickly drop off into the light to moderate range out of the north tonight through early next week as the aforementioned front stalls in the vicinity of the Big Island.

A reinforcing north-northwest (330 deg) swell associated with a storm-force low around 800 nm north of the state is expected to fill in through the day today, peak Sunday, then fade into the upcoming week. Swells associated with nearby sources like this typically come in on time, but larger than projected by a few feet around the peak. The overnight ASCAT pass showed storm-force northerly winds focused at the islands associated with this source, which was 5 to 10 kt stronger than predicted and should correlate to larger seas/swell by a couple of feet. As a result, warning-level surf will be likely for Kauai and Niihau, then advisory-level surf for exposed coasts on Oahu, Molokai and Maui as the swell peaks tonight through Sunday night. A gradual downward trend is expected Monday through Tuesday.

A new south-southwest (200 deg) swell from recent activity near New Zealand is expected to arrive tonight into Sunday, which will translate to rising surf along south facing shores. A similar reinforcement is expected by midweek.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the first half of the upcoming week as the winds remain light locally and upstream.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 1.91 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of -0.24 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 2.14 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.34 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 05:55 am this morning and will set at 06:50 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 13 days old, and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 2:11 AM on Tuesday, May 8th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 10pm August 17th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 28th April 2018

Summary

Showers are developing across Maui County this morning as a shallow cold front continues to move southeast down the island chain. The frontal band will reach the Big Island by this afternoon and stall just to the east of the island on Sunday. Cool and dry air will move in behind the cold front with a drying trend for most islands through Monday. Lingering unstable moisture will continue to drift over the windward Big Island through the upcoming week. A building high pressure ridge east of the state and a developing low pressure system to the north of the islands will slowly draw up the unstable cloud band back northward across the islands from Tuesday through Friday. Expect scattered to numerous showers affecting mainly Kauai and Oahu from Wednesday through Friday as the unsettled cloud band stalls across the northwestern side of the state.

Detailed Discussion

In the big picture, a cut off low continues to spin roughly 800 miles north of Oahu. The low remains cut off from the midlatitude steering flow and will maintain its position for the next several days. GOES Satellite imagery this morning also shows a large band of high level cirrus clouds produced by the Sub-tropical Jet stream. These upper level cirrus clouds are obscuring a shallow low level cold front with light to moderate showers shown on doppler radar moving through Maui County. The remnants of this front will continue to move into the Big Island later this afternoon enhancing showers across the island. Drier and cooler air with northerly winds will move in behind the front, decreasing shower activity across most of the state with dew point temperatures already falling to near 60 degrees Fahrenheit on Kauai and Oahu this morning.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Big Island summits through Sunday morning. Summit wind speeds will likely increase from Sunday night through Monday and a High Wind Warning for the Big Island summits may be needed during this period.

A drier and cooler air mass will linger over Kauai, Oahu and Maui County on Sunday and Monday with decreasing northerly wind speeds. Large scale wind speeds will be light enough on Monday for an onshore sea breeze setting up over Kauai and Oahu with afternoon interior cloud build ups and a few showers possible.

On Monday and Tuesday, a building high pressure ridge to the east and a low pressure trough to the north will combine forces and draw the unstable cloud band near the Big Island slowly northward across the state. The Big Island and Maui will see increasing clouds and enhanced showers on Monday and Tuesday as the unstable band drifts northward.

Wednesday through Friday…The unsettled band of clouds will reach Oahu and Kauai on Wednesday and the forward motion of the unstable cloud band will stall out just as an upper level short wave trough begins to sweep across the northern half of the state. Divergence aloft ahead of this upper trough will cause deeper convection and shower activity along the cloud band, producing scattered and numerous showers over Oahu and Kauai with possible thunderstorms and periods of locally heavy showers for the end of the week. The timing of this rainfall remains a combination of model solutions and we are using this approach to smooth out forecast model run to run inconsistencies. Additional details on rainfall impacts and potential thunderstorms will become clearer as the time period gets closer. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast as next weeks weather pattern evolves.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM HST MONDAY. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 80. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM HST MONDAY. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 76. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM HST MONDAY. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 74 at the shore to around 60 at 5000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 64 at the shore to around 51 upcountry. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph after midnight, then becoming light early in the morning. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain 20 percent.

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