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A ridge northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain gentle to locally fresh easterly trade winds over the southeast half of the offshore waters and the coastal waters around the Big Island of Hawaii through next week. A north-south surface trough has formed over the western offshore waters ahead of a front approaching from the northwest. The trough will maintain gentle variable winds elsewhere over the Hawaiian offshore and coastal waters through tonight. The front will move into the northwest offshore waters tomorrow and dissipate tomorrow night. High pressure building northwest of the area will bring fresh northeast trade winds spreading southeastward over the area tomorrow night through Monday night. Fresh northeast to east trade winds will persist through mid-week.

The current small north-northeast swell will persist through tomorrow morning, then fade out. A moderate northwest swell arriving later tomorrow will peak early Monday, then gradually subside through midweek. Another northwest swell is expected to arrive Wednesday night, peak Thursday, then slowly decline through Friday. Surf from these swells will remain below advisory levels. Surf along east facing shores will remain small since no strong trade winds are expected. A series of south swells will maintain small surf through the middle of next week.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 05:56 am this morning and will set at 06:50 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 23 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 10:47 PM on Saturday, May 4th.

Maui Weather

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Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 10am May 20th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 27th April 2019

Summary

Daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes will dominate through Monday, with showers favoring interior and mauka areas each afternoon and evening, and locations near the coast each night. An upper level trough passing over the state could bring some locally heavy showers and possibly a thunderstorm each afternoon and evening through Monday. High pressure will then build north of the islands Tuesday through late next week, bringing a return of more typical trade wind weather featuring windward and mauka showers.

Detailed Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1034 mb high is centered around 2200 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, while a weakening cold front is located around 375 miles northwest of Kauai. Light trade winds continue to hold on across the eastern end of the state, while light and variable winds have taken hold across the central and western islands. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies in place due to a combination of high and low clouds. Meanwhile, radar imagery shows scattered showers over the coastal waters, with mainly dry conditions over land areas, with the exception of windward Big Island where scattered showers continue to roll onshore. Main short term concern revolves around the potential for locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms through early next week.

Model solutions are in good agreement showing a weakening cold front edging slowly eastward towards the island chain through the weekend, then stalling out and dissipating just to the north of Kauai on Monday. This will keep a light wind regime in place across the state, with overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes expected in most areas. A new area of high pressure will build well to the northwest of the islands on Monday, then shift eastward well to the north of the area through the remainder of the work week. This will allow light to locally moderate trade winds to return Monday night, with moderate trades then expected Tuesday through Thursday. The trades may then ease again late next week as a front passes by to the north of the island chain.

The airmass will gradually de-stabilize through early next week, as upper level troughing becomes better established each day through Monday. The unstable airmass and light wind regime will result in afternoon/evening convective shower development each day, particularly over interior and mountain areas. Showers should fizzle out each evening, with some showers possible near the coast through the overnight hours. There remains a slight chance for thunderstorm development and locally heavy rainfall each afternoon and evening through Monday, with the thunderstorms most likely on Monday when the coldest air aloft swings over the state.

We should see more typical trade wind weather begin to fill in Monday night, with some evening convective showers diminishing over interior and leeward areas, before the focus returns to windward and mauka areas overnight. Trade showers should then take hold through the remainder of the work week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. A stray shower may reach leeward areas from time to time, but mainly during the overnight and early morning hours.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms and isolated showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows 61 to 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows 62 to 68. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows 54 to 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows around 65 at the shore to around 50 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows around 64 at the shore to around 53 upcountry. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.