Long-period northwest swell will continue Saturday, then gradually ease through the rest of the weekend. Surf along north and west facing shores is expected to remain below advisory levels. Another fairly small northwest swell is expected to arrive late Monday and linger through Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will remain a bit above normal, but below advisory levels through the weekend due to a long-period south swell. A similar south swell is possible during the first half of next week due to a recent active pattern across the southern Pacific. Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Saturday due to the rather light trade winds, but will begin to rise once again by the end of the weekend as the trades return and a small north-northeast swell fills in due to a gale far north-northeast of the area.
In the long term, the latest wave model guidance continues to depict a large northwest swell impacting the islands beginning next Thursday. This source will result from a broad gale to storm force low that is projected to develop near the Date Line Monday night into Tuesday, passing far north of the state Wednesday through Friday. If this feature evolves as projected, surf along exposed north and west facing shores could approach warning levels sometime Thursday or Friday.
Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail Saturday, then increase Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds north of the area. These stronger winds will be short-lived, with flow expected to weaken and veer around to the southeast on Tuesday as the high pressure area shifts eastward and another front approaches the region from the northwest. South/southwest winds may approach small-craft advisory levels across parts of the waters on Wednesday as the front moves closer to the state.
High tide at Kahului was 1.3 foot at 3:39 AM late last night, dropping to a low of 0.0 foot at 10:07 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 1.9 foot at 5:29 PM late this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.9 foot at 11:52 PM shortly before midnight
The sunrise was at 06:04 am this morning and will set at 06:46 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 19 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 10:00 AM on Wednesday, April 19th.
Sunset: 6:50 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
A drier airmass and more stable atmosphere is expected over the islands this weekend. A ridge strengthening north of the islands will bring moderate to breezy trade winds Sunday and Monday. Winds will turn southerly Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an approaching front.
Light trade winds over the islands are pushing isolated showers into the windward slopes early Saturday morning but rainfall accumulations from these showers remains light. Leeward areas have remained mostly dry since late last evening, and only limited shower activity is expected today.
An upper trough that had triggered heavier showers over the past few days is currently moving east of the area, and a more stable airmass has taken its place over the islands. At the surface, light to moderate trade winds will prevail today with some sheltered leeward areas seeing some seabreezes in the afternoon. Shower activity will be less active than the past few days with the more stable airmass keeping cloud growth to a minimum.
Sunday, high pressure will build northwest of the state and trade winds will increase down the islands from northwest to southeast with moderate to breezy conditions expected. An old frontal boundary will ride the strengthening trade winds bringing increased moderate showers to mainly windward areas with more showers expected during the nighttime hours. Moderate/breezy trade winds continue through Monday night before weakening Tuesday. The high to the north will be pushed eastward by an approaching front from the west. The front will turn islands winds southeast Tuesday and from the south Tuesday night. Humidity levels will increase with the southeast and south winds and volcanic haze may linger around the smaller islands Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Wednesday the winds continue to veer clockwise as the front approaches and breezy southwest flow is expected. Some low level moisture ahead of the front will bring passing showers mainly over the smaller islands. The main sensible weather change will be the humidity, as the southwest flow increases dew point temperatures into the low 70’s bringing sticky conditions to the state.
Models continue to agree with a late season front reaching Kauai and Thursday and Thursday night. The GFS is a bit more robust with the front and moves it as far east as Maui County before stalling and dissipating Saturday. The ECMWF is slightly slower and weaker with the front, bringing is over Kauai Thursday but stalling and dissipating near the Garden Isle through Friday. The current forecast remains on the conservative side with the front and associated showers reaching Kauai Thursday but stalling and dissipating before reaching Oahu.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 55 to 67. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 at the shore to around 48 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Partly cloudy. Lows around 64 at the shore to around 51 upcountry. Light winds.
Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.