0-2 foot
0-2 foot
0-2 foot
0-2 foot

Trades are forecast to steadily increase through the weekend and hold in the fresh to strong category as high pressure builds north of the state. The small craft advisory remains in effect for most waters east of Oahu through Sunday. Seas will respond and become rough, potentially reaching the advisory level of 10 ft across the Alenuihaha Channel and waters south of the Big Island. Although the trades may slightly back off briefly by Monday, locally strong trades will remain likely over the typical channels around Maui County and south of the Big Island.

Surf along east facing shores will become rough through the weekend as the trades increase locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific. After the trades briefly weaken around Monday, a surge upstream and locally will likely translate to increasing surf that may near the advisory level by midweek.

Surf along south facing shores is expected to trend back up next week as overlapping long-period south swells fill in due to recent activity across the southern Pacific. The first swell is currently building at the American Samoa buoy within the 14-16 second bands this morning, which should continue through the weekend as the second source fills in. The latest WAVEWATCH III guidance depicts this source peaking Monday at the Samoa buoy at 7 ft 15 seconds. Locally, surf will begin to build along south facing shores from the first source Tuesday, then become reinforced by Thursday as the second/larger source fills in. Surf may reach the south shore advisory level at the peak of this reinforcement by Thursday.

Looking ahead into the first week of July, the active trend could persist along south facing shores. The latest ECMWF and GFS guidance supports a gale-force low passing just south of the Tasman Sea and New Zealand today through Monday with gales setting up within Hawaii’s swell window.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was -0.05 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, rising to a high of 2.02 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of 1.03 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.45 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 05:45 am this morning and will set at 07:11 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 11 days old, and is in a Waxing Gibbous phase. The next Full Moon will occur at 4:54 AM on Thursday, June 28th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 11am June 23rd, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 23rd June 2018

Summary

A strong high pressure system will be passing north of the islands over the weekend, resulting in breezy trade winds. Accompanying the trades will be the trade showers that will be favoring the windward and mountain areas. Some of these showers will be spilling over into the lee areas of the smaller islands from time to time.

Detailed Discussion

Scattered loose showers embedded in the trade wind flow continue to blow through the islands this early Saturday morning. A large patch of low clouds with embedded showers that was nearing windward Big Island and Maui at sunset, moved ashore shortly thereafter. It continues to make its way across these two islands this hour. The northern fringe of the cloud mass over Maui has broken up some, and its affect on Oahu will be limited. Kauai should be drier today compared to yesterday, although there will be a couple of brief cloudy and showery periods. As for Maui County and the Big Island, these clouds could be out of the way by mid morning. Thus far, these clouds have produced up to half an inch or so of rain across windward Big Island in the past 6 hours ending at 1 am HST. The clearing line or the back edge of this cloud mass is only some 40 miles east of Cape Kumukahi. A 150 miles clear area extend upwind to the next cloud mass. So, windward Big Island is in line for another sunny afternoon. It should be noted that with the low level trades clocked at 25 mph, these clouds and showers are moving by pretty fast.

We are expecting a little more clouds and trade showers for Sunday. The GFS solution has the marine layer lifting up to the summits of the Big Island in the afternoon. This is in tandem with the rise of the precipitable water, from an inch area wide this afternoon to between 1.2 and 1.45 inches Sunday, meaning an uptick in trade wind clouds and showers for Sunday.

The upper low is 515 miles northeast of the Big Island or at 23N148W. It is moving west at 20 mph. The models have not deviated from earlier runs, and direct the low toward the north after reaching 150W longitude this evening.

The surface high is currently 1200 miles north-northwest of Kauai, with a 1033 MB center. It is moving east at 20 mph, and is on track to pass north of the islands later this afternoon and tonight with a 1034 MB center. By Monday evening, the high will be 1650 miles northeast of the islands, with the trailing ridge extending to 720 miles north of Kauai. Strongest winds will occur between now and Sunday. Models are not very excited about the trades reaching Wind Advisory criteria for the lower elevation, that is sustained winds of 30 mph or higher. This could be due to the fast forward speed of the high, moving east at 20 mph. The trades are expect to drop a notch or two on Sunday night into Monday. The GFS is indicating some resurgence of the breezy trades on Tuesday. Summer time trades will prevail through the rest of the new work week.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 55 to 72. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 71 at the shore to around 54 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 73 at the shore to 54 to 59 upcountry. East winds 15 to 25 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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