Surf Outlook for Saturday, June 15th 2019

South Shores:
building to 6 to 9 feet through Saturday
East Shores:
2 to 3 feet through Saturday
North Shores:
3 to 5 feet tonight, rising to 4 to 6 feet Saturday
West Shores:
4 to 6 feet through Saturday

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui late Saturday into early next week.

Elevated surf is expected along south facing shores through the weekend. A new south-southwest swell will peak late tonight through Saturday. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is in effect through Saturday along south facing shores. The swell will gradually decline Sunday, with south shore surf dropping back to average summertime levels on Monday. Several reinforcing south-southwest swells will continue to produce average summer surf through middle of next week.

A small northwest swell filled in Friday. An additional reinforcing northwest swell is expected late Saturday into Sunday and will continue to produce surf in the small to moderate range along north facing shores through the weekend. Additional pulses of tiny northwest swell are expected through next week. Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the weekend, then rise close to the summertime average early next week.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 05:43 am this morning and will set at 07:09 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 13 days old, and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 9:48 AM on Tuesday, June 25th.

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 15th June 2019

Summary

Moderate trade wind speeds will increase this weekend between a weak ridge to the north and a passing trough south of the state. A dry trade wind weather pattern will continue for most islands into the first half of next week. One exception to this dry pattern will develop over the Big Island later tonight through Saturday, as an area of unstable moist air will moves over the island. Trade wind speeds will trend lower on Monday and Tuesday.

Detailed Discussion

Satellite imagery this evening shows a very stable pattern across most of the Hawaiian Islands. However, a large area of unstable clouds associated with a weak trough is moving into the eastern side of the Big Island this evening.

A high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep trade winds in the forecast for the next seven days. This ridge will build slightly this weekend and pressure gradients will increase as a weak trough passes south of the state. Expect increasing trade wind speeds into the Moderate to Breezy category through Sunday. The ridge to the north of the state will weaken next week with more light to moderate trade wind speeds from Monday through Wednesday of next week.

Overall an upper level ridge will keep Hawaii in a very stable weather pattern, minimizing clouds and showers over most of the state into the first half of next week. One exception to this dry weather will occur over the Big Island tonight through Saturday, as a weak trough will bring an area of deeper unstable moisture into the east to southeast sections of the island. This trough will drift westward in the trade wind flow and pass south of the rest of the island chain. The best chances for scattered showers for next week will favor typical windward and mountain areas in the overnight through early morning hours. Elsewhere only isolated showers are forecast.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY. Sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY. Sunny. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 57 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Partly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 68 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY. Sunny. Highs around 89 at the shore to 70 to 77 upcountry. East winds up to 10 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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