A large long-period south-southwest swell is expected to arrive as early as late Saturday but more likely overnight into Sunday, with surf heights likely reaching advisory levels or higher along our south facing shores at its peak. This swell should offer great surf through Tuesday with a gradual fade through Thursday. Be aware that this is looking to be the largest south swell of the season so far. Extreme tidal changes will also lead to locally strong currents. Although it is still a little too early to issue a high surf advisory, a marine weather statement has been issued to help increase awareness. Another smaller swell is forecast to arrive Thursday. Elsewhere, small and relatively short-period west-northwest swells are also expected to arrive over the next couple of days, which will bring in small surf along select north facing shores. Local winds are expected to remain light to moderate through the weekend and into early next week, but stronger trade winds are forecast later in the week around Maui and the Big Island. Looking further out, there isn’t much happening in the North Pacific aside from a pair of hurricanes far east-southeast that will have no affect on Hawai`i. A minor northwest swell is possible Friday, but don’t expect much. Get as much surf time as you can on this south swell as there isn’t a lot on the horizon. Also, be careful as the shorebreak may be quite heavy in some areas.
Today’s Surf Summary
South facing shores will start off small this weekend around 2-4+ foot but will rapidly rise into the 5-8+ foot range Sunday. Windswell along east and northeast facing shores will stay rather small at 1-3 foot. North and northwest facing shores have nothing but tiny and weak surf around 1-3 foot. Upper West shores won’t do any better at only 1-3 foot. Be aware that some areas may pull in larger sets and the currents may be quite strong, so use your head before paddling out.
Wind and Tide Information
The winds will remain light to moderate out of the east to northeast around 10-15 mph today and through most of next week, likely rising slowly over the second half of the week into next weekend.
Low tide at Kahului was -0.2 foot at 6:20 AM early this morning, rising to a high of 2.1 foot at 1:29 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of 0.8 foot at 7:33 PM early this evening, before once again rising to a of foot at just after midnight
The sunrise was at 05:43 am this morning and will set at 07:04 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 12 days old, and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 3:43 PM on Tuesday, June 9th.
Sunset: 7:02 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
The light to moderate trades continue through the rest of the weekend. Only exception will be around the Big Island where light and variable winds will prevail. The trade winds will continue to bring clouds and showers over windward and mountain areas, with higher chances of rain over Kaua`i and Oah`u. Sea breezes will also bring afternoon and early evening periods of clouds and showers over leeward areas, with generally clear skies during the nights and mornings.
Light to moderate trades continue today, stronger around Kaua`i and Oah`u, and turning more northerly near the Big Island. Model and satellite data still suggest the presence of a weakening surface trough extending northeast from near the Big Island. This feature continues to keep higher than normal moisture upstream and around the island chain. Meanwhile, latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough around 400 miles northeast of the state gradually migrating further east, allowing for gradients aloft to relax. Thus, the strong winds over the Big Island summits are now subsiding.
The light to moderate northeast winds will also keep passing showers and clouds over windward and mountain areas, especially Oah`u and Kaua`i for the next couple of days. On the other hand, land breezes should also help in clearing out most leeward locations of the smaller islands at night.
The current light to moderate trade wind regime is expected to prevail through the rest of the weekend as high pressure remains located to the northwest of the islands. Meanwhile, a band of enhanced moisture is approaching the islands from the north, with guidance bringing this band into the vicinity of Kaua`i later this morning. The combination of this enhanced moisture and developing sea breezes could bring active afternoon and early evening shower periods over leeward areas of the smaller islands Saturday and again Sunday.
Pressure gradients across the area should remain weak enough to keep the trades generally light to moderate through at least the first half of next week. The aforementioned high northwest of the islands will gradually migrate east during the next several days, while the weakening surface trough northeast of the Big Island or its remnants seem to drift west and over the smaller islands. In addition, models show a sharp mid-level trough moving west to east across the area during the weekend and into early next week. This synoptic scenario could further enhance shower activity in addition to the sea breeze convection.
Latest model guidance suggest the return of a fairly seasonable trade wind pattern for the middle and latter part of next week.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 56 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 63 at the shore to around 50 at 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 65 at the shore to 50 to 55 upcountry. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph until early morning. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Photo of the Day