The High Surf Warning has been extended through Saturday afternoon based on the latest observations from the offshore buoys northwest of the islands. The large west-northwest swell ended up coming in slightly later and a few feet larger (3 to 4 feet higher than expected at buoy 51101) than predicted at its peak around noon Friday (buoy recorded 19 ft at 19 seconds), which should correspond to low-end warning-level surf (18-25 ft faces) today as it slowly subsides. Some overwash onto vulnerable roadways can’t be ruled out through this time, which will be most likely around and through the high tide cycles. A second round of large surf/seas will become a possibility next week at some point between late Tuesday night and Thursday in response to a large gale-to-storm force low that is expected to develop across the northwest Pacific over the weekend and early next week.
Local winds are forecast to remain light through the weekend with land and sea breezes continuing each day as a ridge of high pressure remains near the islands. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast to gradually return next week as the ridge shifts farther north of the islands. Advisory-level winds (25 kts) will be possible over the typically windier channel waters by mid week.
High tide at Kahului was 2.7 foot at 4:11 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.6 foot at 10:45 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 1.4 foot at 3:31 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.2 foot at 9:36 PM late this evening
The sunrise was at 07:04 am this morning and will set at 06:06 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 17 days old, and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 10:14 PM on Thursday, January 19th.
Sunset: 6:07 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
Swells from a powerful storm in the north Pacific will produce very large surf along north and west facing shores through today. A surface ridge will remain over the islands through today and bring mostly dry and hazy weather. The ridge will shift north slowly early next week allowing trade winds to gradually build over the islands.
A ridge will remain near or over the islands through today and keep the atmosphere quite dry and stable. With the ridge axis near Kauai, fresh east winds south of the Big Island veer to south southeast over Kauai. The Big Island and Maui block much of the low level flow so winds will be light and variable on the smaller islands through this evening. Land breezes will bring clearing overnight to interior areas, but some clouds may come ashore on the windward side of the Big Island and the south side of Kauai. Sea breezes this afternoon will cause cloud cover to increase across mauka areas. The east southeast winds will carry volcanic emissions from Kilauea (VOG) over the smaller islands, so it will remain hazy through tonight.
Models show surface pressures building northeast of the state early next week. The ridge near the islands will strengthen and shift north and trade winds will build over the islands. Trade winds will help clear the vog early next week. Trade winds could become breezy by mid-week. Returning trade winds will likely bring windward showers, but our airmass is expected to remain rather stable, so total rainfall will be light.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny and haze. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Partly cloudy. Haze through the night. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 82. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Sunny and haze. Highs around 82 at the shore to around 67 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Haze through the night. Lows around 65 at the shore to 48 to 58 upcountry. Light winds.
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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