The current northwest swell has continued to decline both at the nearshore buoys and at buoy 51001 overnight into Saturday, and the earlier high surf advisory for north facing shores was dropped shortly before midnight. Surf will remain below advisory levels on all shores Saturday, but then a moderate northwest swell appears set to produce the next round of low-end advisory level surf on north and west facing shores Sunday into Monday. Increasing northeasterly trades may also produce high surf along east facing shores of some islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind speeds are running lower than expected across the waters from Maui through Kauai, but high resolution model guidance insists that the winds should increase considerably by morning, and will keep the existing small craft advisory in place today for all of the same zones except for Maalaea Bay. The small craft advisory may need to be extended into tonight for some zones around the Big Island, but will let the day shift make that decision. The small craft advisory could be expanded for seas on Sunday due to another northwest swell, and will likely be needed across the entire area once again early next week for areas of strong northeast trades and hazardous seas. There are no significant swells appearing on the long-range forecast, however, there is potential for a large northwest swell developing early next weekend that would arrive late Sunday or more likely early Monday morning. More details to come.
High tide at Kahului was 1.9 foot at 5:28 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.1 foot at 12:20 PM just after noon, then rising to a high of 1.5 foot at 7:06 PM early this evening.
The sunrise was at 06:55 am this morning and will set at 06:24 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 6 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 6:20 PM on Monday, February 22nd.
Sunset: 6:23 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
Locally breezy easterly trade winds will persist through Sunday across Maui county and the Big Island, while gentle east to southeast winds allow for leeward land and sea breezes on Oahu and Kauai. Stable conditions will focus passing showers over windward slopes, mainly on Maui and the Big Island. Northeasterly trade winds will increase early next week as strong high pressure builds northwest of the state. Showers are expected to increase over the area as frontal remnants are carried across the state from Monday night through Wednesday.
Scattered showers embedded in the trade wind flow have continued to move into some windward areas of the Big Island, Maui and Molokai overnight, and showers have persisted along the windward Oahu coast and over the Koolau range as well. Dry weather prevails over the remainder of the state. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered far to the northeast, with a ridge extending westward to the north of the islands, and a cold front over the northwestern Hawaiian islands about 700 miles west- northwest of Kauai. The trade winds are strongest over the eastern half of the state, while weaker east-southeast flow prevails over the western half. Mimic-tpw satellite imagery shows a generally dry and stable airmass surrounding the state, although the 12Z Hilo sounding shows a bit more moisture there with the inversion up to 10k feet and pwat of 1.14 inches. The 12Z Lihue sounding remained quite dry with the inversion base near 7000 feet and pwat just below 0.9 inches. Water vapor imagery shows a strong mid level ridge centered almost directly over the state.
Little change is expected through the weekend. High pressure will remain far northeast of the state, driving moderate easterly flow across the Big Island and Maui county, veering to gentle east/southeast flow over Oahu and Kauai. Showers will be most prevalent over windward sections of the Big Island and Maui, but even there rainfall amounts will be relatively light due to limited moisture. Mainly dry conditions will prevail over Oahu and Kauai, as this flow regime will keep those islands in the rain shadow of the Big Island. Scattered showers will be possible over windward Oahu at times, as that area can be favored for rainfall in east-southeast flow. Afternoon sea breezes across leeward sections should produce some clouds but little rainfall is expected. Winds are expected to shift back to a more typical trade wind direction by late Sunday as a cold front approaches Kauai.
A transition to a breezy and rather wet trade wind pattern is forecast during the first half of next week. Strong high pressure building far northwest of the state will push a dissipating frontal boundary close to Kauai on Monday. An increase in rainfall is likely on Kauai by Monday night as the front drifts over that island, with the band of moisture spreading over Oahu and Maui county on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the dissipating front continues drifting to the southeast. The GFS and ECMWF continue to depict breezy/gusty trade winds spreading across the state Monday night and Tuesday, and continuing on Wednesday.
Longer range models depict the strong high to our northwest sinking gradually southward Wednesday night and Thursday. This pushes the lingering moisture south of the Big Island and brings a much drier airmass over the state for the later part of next week. Breezy trades will continue, although winds may not be quite as strong as those observed earlier in the week.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 65. Light winds.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Clear. Lows 61 to 67. Light winds.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 53 to 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 65 at the shore to around 50 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Lows around 63 at the shore to around 51 upcountry. East winds up to 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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