An extended run of south swell generated by several lows in the deep South Pacific over the last week will bring somewhat elevated surf to Maui’s south facing shores for the next week. Surf heights are expected to remain below advisory levels for the bulk of the time but overlapping swells from Sunday into Tuesday could bring surf to near advisory levels along the best exposed south facing shores. A moderate north-northeast swell is expected to arrive on Sunday and linger through Monday, but relatively short swell periods should result in surf well below advisory levels on north facing shores. Otherwise, a couple of small swells from the north-northwest and west-northwest are expected over the weekend and early next week with surf heights well below advisory levels.
A low currently southwest of New Zealand is tracking northeast toward the east coast of the southern island this weekend. Although initially the peak winds will be over land or too close to shore to really produce much swell, the models show this storm tracking to the east early next week while bombing in central pressure. The resulting winds should be able to produce a significant swell aimed quite nicely toward Hawai`i over the course of several days. The swell it produces should arrive next Saturday, most likely exceeding advisory levels and potentially reaching warning levels. Another much weaker low is forecast to push into this same area of elevated seas around the second half of next week which may send another smaller south swell in our direction, providing a bit more surf later in the week.
Today’s Surf Summary
South facing shores should build into the 3-5+ foot range Saturday with a slow rise to near advisory levels over the holiday weekend, slowly fading into the middle of the week. North and northwest facing shores should see rising surf into the 2-5 foot range over the weekend with higher sets possible at the better exposed breaks. Upper West shores should get some of this swell also but only reaching 1-4 foot, although select breaks could pull in better sets. East and northeast facing shores won’t have much windswell Saturday at only 1-3 foot but slowly rising short-period windswell should fill in over the next few days. Plenty south swell through the week with more developing for next week.
Wind and Tide Information
Low tide at Kahului was 0.8 foot at 1:34 AM late last night, rising to a high of 0.9 foot at 4:59 AM early this morning, then dropping to a low of 0.3 foot at 11:02 AM shortly before noon, before once again rising to a high of 2.0 foot at 7:00 PM early this evening
The sunrise was at 05:44 am this morning and will set at 07:01 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 5 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 4:21 PM on Tuesday, June 2nd.
The winds will be primarily out of the north at light levels around 10-15 mph with little change expected through the upcoming week aside from a slow transition to a more easterly direction by the middle of the week.
Sunset: 7:02 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
West winds have increased to low-end advisory levels on the Big Island summits during the evening, due to the mid level trough passing by the state to our north. Have issued a wind advisory for the summits through noon Saturday.
A weak cold front moved over Maui county last night and will move over the windward Big Island Saturday and Saturday night, before dissipating south of the Big Island on Sunday. A brief period of breezy northeast winds will accompany the front, focusing most of its associated moisture along windward slopes and coasts. After the front passes, light to moderate northeast to north winds will prevail into early next week, with brief showers favoring windward areas, especially during nights and mornings. However, a cloud band moving over the islands on Sunday may bring a few extra windward showers.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly cloudy with showers likely until mid morning,then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 81. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy. Frequent showers until mid morning,then showers likely in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 62 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Highs around 78 at the shore to around 63 at 5000 feet. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 at the shore to 65 to 71 upcountry. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
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