Fading northwest swell along our north and northwest facing shores will continue to drop but should still offer plenty decent sized surf today. A new northwest to north-northwest swell is expected to arrive later in the day, building overnight into Tuesday to reach moderate levels Wednesday. This swell will have a bit of a westerly component to it, so much of the energy will be shadowed by our neighbor islands. On the other hand, select west exposed breaks could pull in good sets if we’re lucky. Another larger west-northwest to northwest swell will arrive Thursday into Friday, peaking Saturday near advisory levels, but probably topping out at solid moderate heights here on Maui. Long-range forecast models continue to show activity in the North Pacific through the forecast period, but nothing significant is expected any time soon. Our south facing shores may begin to feel some weak southerly background swell throughout the period, but nothing has been aimed well in our direction. We’re approaching the time when early season south swells develop, so keep checking back for updates.
North and northwest facing shores should see surf in the 6-10 foot range at the better breaks, slightly smaller elsewhere. Upper West shores may also come in around 3-5 foot or a bit better if we’re lucky. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores is still at a minimum around 2-4 foot. South facing shores should stay near flat at 0-2 foot, but west exposed shores may pick up some larger surf in select areas.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 1.9 foot at 1:29 AM late last night, dropping to a low of 0.7 foot at 8:16 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 1.1 foot at 12:51 PM just after noon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.2 foot at 6:48 PM early this evening
The sunrise was at 06:36 am this morning and will set at 06:35 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 9 days old, and is in a Waxing Gibbous phase. The next Full Moon will occur at 5:10 PM on Sunday, March 16th.
Light northeasterly winds should be expected around 5-15 mph today with a gradual increase over the next few days. Much stronger winds are forecast for the weekend, beginning late Friday, lasting for at least several days.
Sunset: 6:34 PM
Weather Outlook for Tuesday
Trade winds will prevail across the main Hawaiian islands through the week with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas. An upper level trough east of the islands may enhance showers through Tuesday. A cold front will reach the islands Friday, bringing strong and gusty trades in its wake for the weekend.
High pressure far northeast of the aloha state and its associated surface ridge are keeping moderate trades across the area. A persisting pattern of low clouds and passing showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas through the week. Radar and satellite data showed showers with localized heavy rain affecting areas of Kauai, interior and south Oahu during the afternoon hours as sea breezes developed and pushed inland.
Model guidance show an upper level trough east of the island chain becoming stronger by the middle of the week while gradually moving away from the area. The influence of this trough may be strong enough to bring enhanced showers through Tuesday, especially around the Big Island. For tonight, some lingering clouds and showers will remain around interior and leeward areas during the early evening hours, then most of the shower activity will focus over windward slopes through Tuesday.
The aforementioned high pressure system is expected to move further to the east and away from the islands by midweek, quickly followed by another much stronger high pressure cell moving in from the west. By Tuesday, the incoming high will move to the north of the island chain and bring back a moderate trade wind regime through Friday before a cold front reaches Kauai late Friday. But this weak front is not expected to bring significant impacts across the area as it quickly dissipates, except for winds weakening a little but still remaining mainly from the east. High pressure north of the islands will intensify during the weekend and bring increasingly strong and gusty trades across the islands.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 66 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 at the shore to around 61 at 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 at the shore to around 65 at 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunny with isolated showers. Windy. Highs around 61 at 7000 feet to around 55 at the summit. North winds around 10 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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