Windswell out of the east-northeast will continue to provide small to moderate but sloppy surf along our east and northeast facing shores. Fading south-southwest swell may be found along select south facing shores as a new small south swell arrives. However, wave heights should not exceed waist-high levels, so don’t expect much action. Hurrican Guillermo continues to churn out a large easterly swell that should reach our windward shores late Sunday or more likely Monday, quite possibly triggering a high surf advisory. Moderate to large surf should continue through the middle of the week, but the storm’s track may bring it close to the islands which could greatly impact the quality of the surf. Another round of southwest swell is expected to arrive Monday through the middle of the week thanks to a strong low east of Tasmania last week, however, swell from this direction tends to be shadowed by Kaho`olawe. Another fetch set up east of New Zealand last Tuesday and although it was aimed fairly well in our direction, its swell is only expected to reach small to low-end moderate levels at best when it arrives Friday into the weekend.
Today’s Surf Summary
East and northeast facing shores should see small to moderate windswell around 2-4 foot. North and northwest facing shores will stay rather small at 1-3 foot with some slightly larger windswell wrapping into select areas. Upper West shores will likely stay tiny at 0-3 foot. South facing shores may rise into the 1-4 foot range but southwest swells tend to get blocked from most of our shores.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 1.7 foot at 2:37 AM late last night, dropping to a low of -0.4 foot at 8:45 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 2.8 foot at 3:43 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.4 foot at 10:09 PM late this evening
The sunrise was at 05:59 am this morning and will set at 07:05 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 16 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 2:05 AM on Friday, August 7th.
northeasterly winds will be in the 10-15 mph range in most areas over the weekend, with gusts nearing 30 mph in some areas. A slow decreasing trend is expected over the next few days as the remnants of a tropical depression near the islands and disrupts the local tradewind pattern. Light winds should be expected through most of the week.
Sunset: 7:02 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
Moderate trades will continue through the rest of the weekend and into Monday. Showers will increase as remnant moisture associated with former tropical depression 8-E reach the islands today and on Sunday, with best chances of rain over windward and mauka areas. Some of the larger showers will reach leeward locations at times. The forecast for next week will be highly dependent on the eventual track of hurricane Guillermo.
A broad high pressure system remains centered far north of the state and keeping moderate trades across the islands through Monday, along with trade showers affecting mainly windward and mountain areas. Data from the doppler weather radar network showed the most active showers overnight affecting windward Oahu, especially the Koolau mountains. However, the showers have been moving with the trades and rainfall accumulations remained light to moderate.
Shower activity should increase today as moisture associated with the remnants of tropical depression 8-E reach the eastern half of the island chain. Best chances of rain will reside over windward Big Island areas this afternoon and evening. The area of moisture will spread across the rest of the islands on Sunday, still with best chances of rain over windward areas. The trades will remain strong enough to push some of the larger showers into leeward locations at times.
Model data show the trades being disrupted early next week as hurricane Guillermo moves closer to the state from the east. At 3 am HST, Guillermo was located about 1180 miles east-southeast of Hilo, and is expected to enter the central Pacific waters later this morning. The tropical cyclone will then bring the aforementioned disruption of the trades, but it is too early to have a concrete idea of specific impacts for the islands. The winds have been updated to reflect a period of lighter wind speeds across the islands and shifting directions around the periphery of Guillermo for the Wednesday time frame. However, it is important to keep in mind that the overall forecast scenario will continue to evolve during the next several days as new model data becomes available.
Regardless of the final outcome of Guillermo, the solutions on global guidance suggest increasing cloud cover and showers across the island chain for the second half of next week as Guillermo, or its remnants, move to the north of the state.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with showers likely after midnight. Lows 62 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 73 at the shore to around 56 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72 at the shore to 56 to 61 upcountry. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 52 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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