I apologize for the lack of updates recently. With the demands of a full-time plus job and my mother in the hospital, I haven’t had time to keep the site up to date. Mahalo for your understanding, I’ll do my best to keep the site current!
Windswell out of the east-northeast will be the main source of surf over the next few days with wave heights reaching into the waist-high to near head-high range at the better exposed breaks. The bad news is that strong local tradewinds will produce poor conditions. There is a tiny combo of south to southeasterly swell along the south facing shores but it won’t amount to much. The really bad news is that there is very little surf expected throughout the forecast period. Thankfully, the southern hemisphere is shaping up to potentially deliver a bit of south swell in the next few days. A low developing southwest of New Zealand is predicted to push toward the northeast past New Zealand’s southeast coastline. Current models show this pattern lasting well into the weekend, possibly longer. Nothing significant is forecast, but a long period of small to moderate swell is likely to develop. The northern hemisphere is expected to stay rather quiet through the forecast period, but the long-range models continue to hint toward a tropical storm developing in the eastern tropics early next week. It is far too early to really discuss, but this storm could affect Hawai`i, so be sure to check back for details.
East and northeast facing shores should see moderate windswell around 3-5 foot or slightly larger at the best locations. North and northwest facing shores should stay near flat, aside from wrapping windswell around 1-4 foot. Upper West shores should be flat at 0-2 foot. South facing shores may see a bit of south to southeasterly swell around 0-4 foot, but don’t expect much.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 1.2 foot at 12:22 AM just after midnight, dropping to a low of -0.1 foot at 7:00 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 2.4 foot at 2:34 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.9 foot at 9:09 PM late this evening
The sunrise was at 05:55 am this morning and will set at 07:09 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 26 days old, and is in a Waning Crescent phase. The next New Moon will occur at 10:42 PM on Saturday, July 26th.
Increasing easterly tradewinds will build to strong levels around 15-25 mph today and some areas may see gusts reaching 40 mph or higher. The winds will remain strong and gusty through Wednesday and will then slowly drop later Thursday into Friday.
Sunset: 7:07 PM
Weather Outlook for Wednesday
The moist and humid air mass lingering over the islands this afternoon will be gradually ushered west of the state tonight and early Wednesday by building trade winds. A drier, less humid, and rather stable air mass will become established on Wednesday, as locally breezy trade winds focus modest showers across windward slopes.
Trade winds are back, but it will take a little time to get rid of the humid air mass lingering over the islands. Island observing stations showed a sharp return of the trades through the day, reaching Kauai this afternoon. Even though the trade winds make it feel a bit less humid, dew points are still stubbornly running in the low to mid 70’s. Under these moist conditions, modest showers have been falling over windward slopes, while a few spotty heavy showers briefly flared on Oahu and Kauai. In fact, a brief thunderstorm recently fired off on the middle slopes of Mauna Loa. The waning instability responsible for this convection is a rapidly weakening upper level trough a few hundred miles northwest of Kauai.
The humid air mass will be gradually pushed off to the west tonight by the strengthening trade winds, and mid level ridging will bring increased stability. The trade winds will increase as a weak surface trough northwest of Kauai fills and drifts westward, allowing a 1032 mb surface high roughly 1400 miles to our north to take over. Mid to upper level ridging moving in from the east will produce increasingly stable conditions. This process is already underway, as a developing inversion around 6000 ft can be see in the afternoon soundings.
A stable and locally breezy trade wind flow will be established on Wednesday. Dew points temperatures will drop around 5 degrees, bringing relief from recent humid conditions. Modest showers will be focused across windward slopes along with afternoon clouds and showers on the Kona slopes.
In the long term, trades will drop slightly heading into the weekend. Forecast models have been showing a small area of deeper moisture passing over the islands during the second half of the weekend. Uncertainty remains a bit high, but a boost in mainly windward rainfall is likely. The ridge aloft will be weakened by an upper level trough passing by to the north, but somewhat stable conditions look to hang on.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Breezy. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Sunny with isolated showers. Breezy. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Breezy. Highs 69 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast 15 to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 82 at the shore to around 68 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 at the shore to around 70 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunny with isolated showers. Breezy. Highs around 66 at 7000 feet to around 61 at the summit. East winds around 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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