I apologize for the lack of updates recently. With the demands of a full-time plus job and my mother in the hospital, I haven’t had time to keep the site up to date. Mahalo for your understanding, I’ll do my best to keep the site current!
Small south-southeasterly swell should continue around knee-waist high levels today, possibly a bit higher from time to time at the better exposed breaks. This swell is on the way down but another minor south to south-southeasterly swell should reinforce this to keep similar surf breaking through the next few days. There may still be a little leftover west to west-northwest swell at select breaks but that energy is on the way down and out. Continuing east-northeasterly windswell should keep some weak surf along the east and northeast exposed breaks today, potentially increase later in the day. However, the breezy east-northeasterly local tradewinds will produce sloppy conditions. There are still no significant swells expected throughout the forecast period, so keep those fingers crossed for something good soon. In fact, there won’t be much surf to speak of at all through much of the period. A more favorable pattern is forecast to emerge early in this upcoming week as the southern storm track shifts into our favored swell window southeast of New Zealand. If all goes well, this track will allow a bit more energy to be sent in our direction, but at the moment no swell producing lows are expected to actually develop in this area. However, the long-range models do show the potential increasing later in the week, so check back for updates and pray for surf. The weather should be ok today but the arrival of a deep tropical system later this evening into Sunday will bring the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding to the islands over the next several days.
South facing shores should still see surf in the 1-4 foot range due to a combination of sources, but don’t expect anything good. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores should come in around 2-5 foot but it will be sloppy and choppy. North and northwest facing shores may see poor windswell wrapping in around 0-3 foot or slightly higher at the best exposed locations. Upper West shores should stay closer to flat at 0-2 foot.
Wind and Tide Information
Low tide at Kahului was 0.2 foot at 3:25 AM late last night, rising to a high of 1.6 foot at 11:14 AM shortly before noon, then dropping to a low of 1.3 foot at 4:24 PM late this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.5 foot at 8:35 PM early this evening
The sunrise was at 05:54 am this morning and will set at 07:10 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 23 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 10:42 PM on Saturday, July 26th.
The east to northeasterly tradewinds will remain around moderate levels of 10-20 mph today with a slight decrease likely over the next couple of days. Wind speeds are expected to increase into the fresh to strong range beginning late Monday or Tuesday, lasting through most of the upcoming week.
Sunset: 7:08 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
The moderate trade winds will continue through the rest of the weekend and into Monday with clouds and showers focusing over windward and mountain areas. Deep tropical moisture spreading across the island chain will bring the potential for heavy rain, flash flooding and a slight chance of thunderstorms through Monday. The trades will regain strength and bring back a more stable weather regime across the main Hawaiian islands by the late Tuesday and into Wednesday next week.
High pressure located far north of the main Hawaiian islands will keep a generally moderate trade wind pattern in place through the rest of the weekend and into Mon. Radar and satellite data show just a few showers passing over windward/mountain areas of the smaller islands during the overnight hours. But the first swath of enhanced tropical moisture associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Wali can already be observed on radar about 50 miles southeast of Hilo, gradually approaching windward and southeast areas of the Big Island.
Showers across the Big Island and Maui county will gradually intensify today, then the arrival of an upper level low over the western half of the island chain will provide additional atmospheric instability for periods of heavy rain to develop. There is also potential for isolated thunderstorms during the next couple of days. Mimic analyses show pwats of well over 2 inches within the bulk of the deep moisture field around 500 miles southeast of the Big Island, which will keep moving towards the aloha state through the morning hours.
For the smaller islands, increasing showers will begin around midday today, then becoming more intense in the afternoon and evening. A flash flood watch is already in effect for the Big Island and Maui county, then expanding into Oahu and Kauai county Saturday evening. The watch will remain in effect through at least Monday afternoon and could be extended if necessary. Please refer to the weather.gov/hawaii for more detailed information. A slight chance of thunderstorms is also expected due to the cooler air aloft and dynamic forcing caused by the trough.
Basically, all the islands will be impacted by heavy rain at some point, but with the moderate trades still focusing the bulk of the rain over windward and mountain areas. Leeward areas, which are typically drier, do not require as much rainfall to see flash flooding. So the threat will encompass all areas of the aloha state through Monday.
From Monday night and through the middle of next week, the tropical airmass is expected to slowly depart Monday night and Tuesday with a gradual decrease in showers. The trade winds will regain strength and become fresh by Wednesday, bringing back a more stable weather regime across the main Hawaiian islands.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY. Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Showers likely. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY. Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 82 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY. Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 68 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY. Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 82 at the shore to around 68 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY. Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 at the shore to around 69 at 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the south in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY. Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Frequent showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 65 at 7000 feet to around 60 at the summit. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
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