High Surf Warning

...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND... .Surf is currently peaking this evening and will steadily lower tonight. Another large northwest swell is expected on Tuesday.

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15-20+ foot
8-12+ foot
0-3 foot
2-4+ foot

High pressure to the north will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through tonight. A front approaching from the northwest will shift the high further to the east, which will decrease the trades some for Monday. The front is expected to begin impacting the northwest waters around Kauai on Tuesday, and pushing down the island chain reaching the waters around Big Island Tuesday night. Strong north winds are expected with and behind the frontal passage. High pressure is expected to return northeast of the state for the end of the week.

The new long-period northwest swell reached buoy 51101 to the northwest of the islands overnight, a bit smaller than expected, and a few hours delayed. The Hanalei Bay buoy has started to show this as well, so have lowered swell and wave height grids to better account for the buoy observations. The forecast reflects low end Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters through tonight due to a combination of winds and seas.

Surf is still expected to rise today, so the High Surf Warning for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui and High Surf Advisory for north facing shores of the Big Island remains in effect through tonight. However with the swell coming in lower than expected, have lowered the surf heights.

An even larger northwest swell is expected to build late Monday, peaking well above warning levels Tuesday night. Exposed coastal waters will once again rise to over 10 feet as these swells come rolling through. This new swell, coupled with the increasing winds behind the above mentioned front, will likely lead to a SCA for most, if not all, waters into midweek.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 1.12 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, rising to a high of 1.79 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of 0.40 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.55 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 06:54 am this morning and will set at 05:49 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 9 days old, and is in a Waxing Gibbous phase. The next Full Moon will occur at 5:50 PM on Saturday, December 22nd.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

°/°
Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 2am December 17th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Sunday, 16th December 2018

Summary

Dry and pleasant conditions associated with high pressure will hold into the start of the upcoming week. Trade winds will gradually trend down through Monday, potentially becoming light enough for land and sea breeze conditions for a brief period late Monday through early Tuesday for some portions of the state as a weak cold front approaches and moves into the area. The front is forecast to quickly advance down the island chain late Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing increasing rain chances. Gusty northerly winds along with drier and cooler conditions will follow Wednesday through Thursday. A return of a more typical trade wind pattern will be possible Friday into next weekend.

Detailed Discussion

Short-term (through Monday night) guidance remains in good agreement and reflects the dry pattern holding through Monday due to deep layer ridging and a strong subsidence inversion. Precipitable water values are forecast to range from three quarters of an inch to around an inch, which is below average (drier) for this time of year. After a long stretch of breezy to windy trades, the pressure gradient is forecast to relax over the state as a weak cold front and upper trough approach from the northwest. Trades will respond and gradually trend down, potentially becoming weak enough for localized land/sea breezes late Monday through Monday night.

For the extended (Tuesday through Friday), guidance remains in decent agreement through midweek and shows the aforementioned cold front advancing down the island chain beginning late Tuesday for Kauai, then clearing the Big Island by the end of the day Wednesday. A slight increase in moisture (albeit shallow) combined with this boundary and upper trough will support increasing rain chances, especially late Tuesday through Wednesday, as the boundary moves down the island chain. Breezy northerly winds along with much drier conditions will follow its passage Wednesday through Thursday. Dewpoints are forecast to dip into the upper 50s for the smaller northwest islands. High temperatures may struggle to reach the 80 deg mark Wednesday afternoon. The dry and pleasant conditions will likely hold into the second half of the week with a return of a more typical trade wind pattern by the weekend.

Winds at the summits of the Big Island have mostly remained below advisory levels overnight, except for a few observations that neared criteria. A gradual downward trend is anticipated through the day today.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Sunny and breezy. Highs around 84. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 65. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 at the shore to around 65 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Lows around 61 at the shore to around 50 upcountry. East winds up to 15 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph.

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