A new south-southwest to south swell may fill in along our south facing shores today that could reach into the waist- to chest-high range if we’re lucky, but don’t put too much faith in it. Very weak short-period energy out of the north-northeast may continue to offer tiny surf along exposed winter shores. Both of these sources will fade into Friday. Continuing background swell out of the south will only tease us through the weekend. A tiny northwest swell is possible but unlikely to arrive Saturday, but it would only reach waist-high if it does anything at all. It looks like New Zealand is going to kill what originally looked like it could have been a good south swell, although maybe the source low will reform in our swell window. Pray for surf.
South facing shores may see some small to low-end moderate surf around 1-4 foot at the better exposed breaks, but most areas will stay closer to flat. Lingering north-northeast swell may still be around 1-3 foot in some areas and there is a remote chance for a few slightly better sets at the best breaks. Upper West shores may also see a tiny bit of this swell around 0-3 foot but most breaks will be flat. There is no windswell to mention along the east and northeast facing shores but as with the north, select breaks may see tiny north-northeast swell at 1-3 foot. Good luck and stay positive.
What’s New on OMaui
The daily report and outlook can now be found on OMaui’s Facebook page! More stuff will be added there soon. Of course, Facebook promptly screwed everything up by forcing us to use their idiotic Timeline. You’ll have to click on the "Surf Report" now.
I am experimenting with a long-range forecast chart for both North and South shores which I hope will help people better plan their lives around the surf. The charts can be found below. The surf heights are approximate and of course may not be exact, so don’t put too much faith in them.
Extended Surf Forecast
South Pacific Outlook
The current round of fading south swell was produced last Friday into Saturday as an area of severe gales set up a wide fetch just off of the Antarctic ice shelf far south-southwest of New Zealand. The long fetch was better aimed toward French Polynesia, but angular spreading allowed some of this energy to reach our summer shores at small to moderate levels. Another low developed southeast of New Zealand last Tuesday and it was better aimed toward Hawai`i. Unfortunately, the winds weren’t quite as strong so we’ll probably only see a moderate episode when it arrives overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Maui may need to wait a while for this swell to fill in, so be patient. Not much else has happened since, but a low is expected to push up into the Tasman Sea over the next several days. It is highly doubtful that any of this energy will reach Hawai`i. The long-range models show some potential for a well-aimed storm track later in the week, but it is way too early to put any faith in that. Overall, not much is on the way.
North Pacific Outlook
High pressure west of California produced a fetch of strong winds aimed toward Hawai`i from Tuesday to Friday this week, sending a minor northeast swell in our direction. The head of this fetch was quite far away so a lot of energy will be lost during the long journey toward Hawai`i, leaving us with only a small episode. A very weak low north-northeast of the staet may be able to provide a very tiny shorter-period north-northeast swell around Wednesday, but it won’t amount to much and the odds are low. But that’s about all there is to talk about in the North Pacific. The official hurricane season begins May 15th for the Eastern Pacific but the Central Pacific doesn’t start until June 1st. There is already a disturbance forming south-southwest of Acapulco and it has fairly good odds of becoming a tropical depression as it tracks toward the northwest.
Wind and Tide Information
Low tide at Kahului was -0.13 foot at 6:15am early this morning, rising to a high of 2.1 foot at 1:23pm early in the afternoon, then dropping once more to a low of 0.8 foot at 7:30pm this evening. The sunrise was at 5:47am this morning and will set at 6:57 pm this evening. The Moon is in a waning crescent phase and will reach New Moon this Sunday.
Maui Weather
Sunset: 6:57 PM
Trade winds will strengthen tonight as high pressure builds to the north. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through Friday before dropping over the weekend. Clouds and showers will focus over windward and mauka areas, with the Kona slopes seeing afternoon and early evening clouds. The tradewinds have begun to strengthen as high pressure builds north of the state, rising to moderate to potentially fresh levels through Friday. This high is predicted to weaken as it gets pushed away by a cold front passing far to the north of the islands which will also push in a weak ridge into the region just to the north of Hawai`i. All of this will weaken the tradewinds once again, dropping to light to moderate levels over the weekend, possibly allowing land and sea breezes to take over. Mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions should prevail over Maui today although a few scattered showers are likely. The atmosphere is dry and stable.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 54 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 at the shore to around 49 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Lows around 63 at the shore to around 49 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph and gusty.
Haleakala Summit
Mostly clear. Lows around 49 at 7000 feet to around 43 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
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