The National Weather Service has issued a High Surf Advisory effective through 6pm this evening for Maui’s north facing shores. A new round of north-northwest swell is expected to fill in today to offer surf at near double-overhead levels at our better exposed breaks. This swell is shorter period than what we’ve been used to recently, so don’t expect as much power. The exceptionally light winds should offer excellent conditions though. This energy should stick around at decent levels Saturday and could still be fun Sunday. Additional reinforcements from the north should ensure a very fun weekend of surf. Next week looks like it’s going to be big and nasty as a series of powerful swells reaches Hawai`i beginning Monday with back to back reinforcements expected through the entire week.
North and northwest facing shores should offer plenty surf today out of the north-northwest with a little leftover from the west-northwest in the 8-12+ foot range at the best locations, slightly smaller at the lesser exposed breaks. Upper West shores may get in on this action around 3-5+ foot, possibly higher at the best exposed breaks while some areas see near flat conditions. The windswell has dropped to nothing, but some east and northeast facing shores could see some energy wrapping in around the 3-5 foot range, just don’t count on it. Get what you can this weekend as next week is going to be nasty.
What’s New on OMaui
I am experimenting with a long-range forecast chart for both North and South shores which I hope will help people better plan their lives around the surf. The charts can be found below. The surf heights are approximate and of course may not be exact, so don’t put too much faith in them.
Extended Surf Forecast
North Pacific Outlook
The fading but long-lived west-northwest to northwest swell was generated by a very strong low pressure system that originated east of the Kuril Islands late last week into the weekend. The storm generated hurricane-force winds over a broad fetch with sea heights well over 45 foot. This swell would have been even larger if if hadn’t been created so far away, since the energy had a long distance to travel. Although there will still be plenty action leftover Wednesday, the longer wavelength swell has passed and the shorter period surf won’t jack up as high as the past couple of days. The swell will fade rather quickly to small levels into Thursday. The jetstream is taking on a more zonal pattern this week, and another swell is on its way toward our winter shores. A low developed near the dateline that should provide us with our next swell which is due to arrive late Thursday into Friday. The fetch was small and pretty limited, so we shouldn’t expect the surf to grow above moderate levels here on Maui, but some breaks may be able to pull in some sets near advisory levels. The models are showing a low developing just east of Japan Wednesday that is forecast to intensify well southeast of Kamchatka. This storm should open up over a pretty wide fetch and could produce another very large swell that would arrive later Monday. Keep ‘em coming.
South Pacific Outlook
Not much is expected to come out of the South Pacific through the forecast period besides maybe some tiny to small background swell off and on again. The southern jetstream is modeled to sag further southeast under New Zealand which will keep any potential for surf at nearly 0%.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.1 foot at 12:59am after midnight last night, dropping to a low of 1.0 foot at 8:05am this morning, rising very little to a high of 1.04 foot at 10:56am shortly after, then dropping through the afternoon to a low of -0.1 foot at 5:42pm early this evening, then rising once more to a high of 2.3 foot at 1:24am late this evening. The sunrise was at 7:01am this morning and will set at 6:18pm early this evening. The Moon is in a waxing gibbous phase and will reach Full Moon this Tuesday.
Maui Weather
Sunset: 6:18 PM
The tradewinds will drop rather quickly through the day today, offering light winds and overall dry conditions across the state. Another front approaching the state later in the weekend will likely reach the islands Monday and will stick around through the middle of the week bringing clouds, moderately strong winds and a little rain to the area. But today the atmosphere should remain dry and stable with little to no rain expected over Maui. A subtropical ridge is forecast to shift south over the next 24 hours which should stall over the islands, dropping the winds to near calm levels. However, land and sea breezes may develop later this afternoon and evening. A series of strong troughs are predicted to move over the North Pacific later this weekend, and it looks like one rather strong front will approach out of the northwest. Despite some weakening before it reaches the islands, the models show some strengthening and enough energy to push all the way down past the Big Island by Wednesday. It’s too early to know how wet this event will be, but extremely dry air ahead of the front won’t help much. More details to come through the weekend.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 80. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs 76 to 81. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs 66 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 77 at the shore to around 61 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly sunny. Isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 at the shore to around 64 at 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Haleakala Summit
Sunny. Highs around 60 at 7000 feet to around 55 at the summit. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
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