Minor leftovers around chest-shoulder high levels should still be found along our north and northwest facing shores today, with a few larger sets still possible at the better breaks. Another large swell is expected to arrive Friday in two overlapping phases. The first and smaller swell should arrive early afternoon out of the west-northwest, and this direction is heavily shadowed by our neighbor islands. Those who know where to look may see some fun surf, but don’t count on it. The second and larger swell should arrive later in the afternoon or early evening out of the northwest, peaking overnight into Saturday morning well above advisory levels. This energy will slowly fade over the weekend and likely even into early next week. Another chance for an out-of-season southwest swell is possible Saturday, but this swell direction usually doesn’t produce any surf along Maui’s south shores due to heavy shadowing by Kaho`olawe. Better odds are on Sunday when this swell swings a bit more out of the south-southwest. the models don’t show much promise in the short-term, but a storm developing off the east coast of Japan late in the weekend is forecast to bomb early next week into a huge system. If all goes well we may see a very large swell arriving Thursday or Friday. More details will be available over the next few days as this scenario plays out.
North and northwest facing shores should still see surf around 3-5 foot under strong tradewinds. Upper West shores may see tiny surf around 1-3 foot, but don’t count on it. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores will be a sloppy 1-3 foot. South facing shores won’t see much either at only 1-3 foot. Be patient, there is some good surf on the way.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.0 foot at 12:16 AM just after midnight, dropping to a low of 1.2 foot at 6:08 AM early this morning, then rising to a high of 1.5 foot at 10:29 AM this morning, before once again dropping to a low of 0.0 foot at 5:26 PM late this afternoon
The sunrise was at 06:52 am this morning and will set at 05:47 pm this evening. The Moon is in a waxing gibbous phase and will reach Full Moon this Monday.
Strong southeast to easterly tradewinds should remain in the 10-20 mph range at most locations, with gusts as high as 45 mph in some areas decreasing to 25-30 mph later this morning. A slow decreasing trend is expected over the next few days, likely becoming light and variable southerlies over the weekend and early next week.
Sunset: 5:46 PM
Weather Outlook for Thursday
Trade winds will gradually diminish through Thursday and turn southeasterly by the weekend as another advancing front stalls briefly west of the state. Light windward showers will continue into the weekend with some afternoon cloud buildups over interior areas of the islands. The front may advance to the islands Sunday into early next week, bringing wetter weather and a slight chance of thunderstorms to the state.
Fair weather prevails over the islands this evening as only a few low clouds are present in the island vicinity. Latest satellite imagery does show an area of low clouds just east of Maui at time, and these clouds may reach the islands later this evening, providing some shores affecting mainly windward areas. The surface high pressure that has been providing trade winds to the state is moving steadily east this evening, as an advancing cold front from the northwest pushes closer to the state. This will result in trade winds decreasing through the next few days over the islands. In the mean time, trade wind weather will persist at least through rest of the evening into early Thursday morning, with few passing showers affecting mainly windward areas.
Latest forecast model solutions still indicate this approaching front will stall some ways west of Kauai in the next few days. Therefore while the southeasterly winds will spread over the western islands, more typical trade winds will prevail over Maui county and the Big Island. Thus a more convective type weather regime will slowly set in over the western islands, with land and sea breezes becoming more prominent by the weekend. Clouds and possible showers will develop over the interior sections of the islands under day time heating, while night time cooling will result in partial clearing of skies over those islands. Low clouds carried by the southeasterly winds may still affect the windward areas at times. Maui county as well the Big Island will experience more typical trade wind weather, with passing low clouds and showers affecting mainly windward and mountain areas. The southeasterly wind flow also may spread volcanic haze from the Big Island to the western islands over the weekend.
The stalled front may resume its movement towards to the islands by the later part of the weekend into early next week as another system from further northwest approaches the state. The chance of rain will increase over Kauai Saturday night as the front edges closer to the islands, then spread over Oahu and Maui county by Sunday and Monday as the front moves along. The atmosphere will also begin to destabilize as cold air aloft associated with the front reaches the state, bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday through early next week. The islands may see potentially heavier rainfall Sunday through early next week.
The global model solutions diverge somewhat in the extended period over the islands, though they do all point towards the general unsettled weather over the state through early part of next week.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast around 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph until mid morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 62 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 at the shore to around 64 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph decreasing to 30 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 at the shore to around 67 at 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph decreasing to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 67 at 7000 feet to around 63 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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