The National Weather Service has extended the High Surf Advisory through 6am Monday morning as the series of large south swells continues with surf coming in at well overhead levels along much of our south shores. A tiny northwest swell will continue to slowly fill in along the north and northwest shores but we’re talking waist-high at best. Another round of reinforcing south to south-southeast swell is due to arrive today but this round will be a little smaller than the previous swells, so don’t expect any more size but rather consider this an extension. It is likely that the advisory will be dropped Monday morning but the waves should continue through Tuesday when yet another swell in this series is expected to arrive, also at a smaller magnitude. The final swell in this series is due to arrive Friday at smaller levels. The models are showing the potential for enhanced background swell developing over the next few days but it won’t be aimed well and the winds won’t be at all impressive. Looking now to the northwestern North Pacific, a gale set up well east of Japan that is aiming a nice fetch in our direction. This energy is expected to fade over the next 48 hours but a upper-end small to potentially moderate sized northwest swell is expected to arrive around Wednesday. More details to come.
South facing shores should continue around 5-8 foot with occasionally higher sets still likely at the better breaks. North and northwest facing shores may come in around 2-4 foot due to a very small northwest swell. Upper West shores may also see a little of this around 1-3 foot but don’t count on it. East and northeast facing shores will stay near flat at 1-3 foot. Those who know where to look will score!
Wind and Tide InformationLow tide at Kahului was 0.33 foot at 4:40 AM early this morning, rising to a high of 1.32 foot at 11:15 AM just before noon, then dropping to a low of 0.88 foot at 4:13 PM late this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.66 foot at 10:08 PM shortly before midnight. The sunrise was at 05:45 am this morning and will set at 06:59 pm this evening. The Moon is in a waxing gibbous phase and will reach Full Moon Friday.
Light northerly winds of 5-15 mph should be expected today with a bit of a westerly component likely later in the day. The light winds should continue through mid-week but will then build back to moderate levels over the second half of the week.
Sunset: 6:58 PM
Weather Outlook for Sunday
A low aloft will linger northeast of the island chain producing unsettled weather through midweek. Locally heavy rain will be possible today with a slight chance for thunderstorms on the Big Island. A sharp trough will produce light background flow resulting in a land and sea breeze pattern near the surface in the short and midterm. Trade winds will return late this week.
A complicated weather pattern persists across the state early this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a cold upper low north of the islands digging to the southeast. Meanwhile, at the surface, a sharp inverted trough has an axis across Maui and is stationary. To the north, a cold front is located about 75 miles away from Kauai and moving south towards the state at 15 mph. The front is being overrun by breezy northerly winds associated with high pressure behind it. Current radar shows slow moving scattered showers directed in nearly a counterclockwise motion across the island chain. This is due to that sharp trough axis focused on Maui this morning. The greatest areal shower coverage is off the windward and southeast coast of the Big Island, and the least coverage around Kauai. Soundings from this morning show weak elevation inversions at 10 kft at Lihue and 14 kft at Hilo, with precipitable water values of 1.16 inches at Lihue and 1.53 inches at Hilo. The light background flow resulting from the presence of the surface trough will allow sea breezes to build over the islands again today. Kauai will be the exception with moderate northerly winds expected. Clouds and showers associated with the approaching front should arrive in Kauai late this morning and afternoon, before washing out over Oahu tonight. For Oahu and Maui county, the sea breezes will bring clouds and showers onto the island interiors and leeward sections this afternoon and evening. The instability aloft from the upper low will cause locally heavy rainfall on all islands except Kauai today, though chances for rain will remain high on Kauai with the frontal passage. The Big Island will also be a focus for chances of heavy rain and a slight chance for thunderstorms given the pool of nearby moisture. Land breezes will set in tonight pushing most of the clouds and rain offshore late. Oahu could still remain wet tonight as that front stalls and falls apart. The surface trough will linger near Maui through Monday, then slowly weaken and move off to the west. Aloft, a low will persist northeast of the area through midweek. Light winds associated with the surface trough and instability from the low aloft will continue this diurnal convective pattern over all the islands through Wednesday, and into Thursday for some leeward areas. There is a possibility of locally heavy showers across island interiors Monday and Tuesday given the proximity of the upper low, but not very confident in timing and location of these showers due to the complex situation. Will hold off on putting this in the forecast for now. Long range models are in good agreement showing the trade winds becoming well-established by Friday, and locally breezy next weekend. The convective pattern will end and the trades will bring focus lighter showers to windward and mauka areas. Another trough aloft may dig down over the area next weekend and may enhance the trade wind showers.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 82 to 88. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 78 to 86. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible early in the evening. Lows 55 to 67. North winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible early in the evening. Lows around 67 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 87 at the shore to around 69 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the late morning and early afternoon, then shifting to the north late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible early in the evening. Lows around 47 at 7000 feet to around 42 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
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