The surf along the north and northwest facing shores should offer fun-sized sets in the chest to head-high range at the better exposed breaks. This energy is on the way down, however, and will likely drop to waist-high later in the day. Another round of northerly swell is expected to arrive around the middle of the week, potentially reaching advisory levels if all goes well. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores should be around thigh to chest-high levels although a few larger sets may be found at the better exposed breaks. We may also get a minor south-southwest swell around the middle of the week as well. It’s a bit early for confidence, but another upper-end small to moderate northerly swell is possible late in the week and over the weekend. The current north swell was produced by an Aleutian low with an associated fetch stretching from the central to eastern Aleutians around the middle of last week. Much of this energy was aimed further east of the islands leaving us with more of an edge-pass. This swell should slowly fade into Monday or possibly even Tuesday. The remnants of Ana is merging with a larger low north of Hawai`i, and a minor fetch may be aimed in our direction. At this time it looks like only a small episode is likely to arrive Wednesday into Thursday. The forecast models are showing the development of a low near the eastern Aleutian islands far north of the state. Check back for updates as this develops. A relatively large and strong high pressure system is also forecast to develop later in the week which would ramp up the windswell over the weekend and into next week. We may see a little bump along the south shores around Wednesday, but the odds are low.
Today’s Surf Summary
North and northwest facing shores should still offer surf around 4-6 foot at the better breaks, possibly a bit higher from time to time at the best locations. Upper West shores may be around 1-4 foot but larger sets are possible at the best breaks. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores should be around 3-5 foot and sloppy. South facing shores don’t have much to mention at only 0-3 foot.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.5 foot at 5:04 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.9 foot at 11:20 AM shortly before noon, then rising to a high of 1.6 foot at 3:57 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.1 foot at 10:27 PM late this evening
The sunrise was at 06:25 am this morning and will set at 05:54 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 3 days old, and is in a Waxing Crescent phase. The next First Quarter will occur at 2:48 AM on Friday, October 31st.
The east to east-northeasterly tradewinds will remain at moderate to strong levels of 10-25 mph today with gusts around 30 mph likely in some areas. The winds should drop a bit later in the day and should level off at moderate to fresh speeds through at least the first half of the upcoming week.
Sunset: 5:50 PM
Weather Outlook for Sunday
A band of low clouds and showers associated with an old front are moving down over the island chain this morning. A weak surface ridge north of the aloha state will maintain light to moderate trade winds through mid-week. The trades will keep low clouds and showers focused across windward and mauka areas from tonight through Wednesday. A cold front is expected to push through the islands later this week, bringing another increase in showers and stronger trade winds starting Thursday.
A surface ridge extends west southwest from a 1025 mb surface high near 35Â°N 135Â°W through a point about 375 miles north of Honolulu. The pressure gradient south of this surface ridge is maintaining light to moderate trade winds across the island chain. A band of low clouds and showers associated with a former front is in the vicinity of the islands. This band, which is moving slowly southward, also extends far east northeast of the Big Island.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge above the state, and an upper level trough far to the east and an upper level low west southwest of Kauai. The ridge aloft is maintaining relatively stable atmospheric conditions across the region. Even with these stable conditions, the early morning soundings from Hilo and Lihue do not show a distinct trade wind inversion. The precipitable water values from these soundings were near 1.6 inches at Hilo and Lihue.
This band of low clouds and showers is forecast to push through most of the area later this afternoon/evening. The forecast model guidance shows stable conditions and decreasing moisture depth during tonight and Monday. The surface ridge north of the islands will maintain light to moderate trade winds. The low-level trade wind flow will keep showers focused mainly across windward and mauka sections of the state. With the upper level ridge remaining in the area, we expect rainfall amounts will be rather meager due to the drier and more stable air mass early this week. Conditions start to change by mid-week as the upper level low to the west southwest starts moving toward the islands. This low aloft is expected to weaken as it moves into the vicinity of the state. However, this feature aloft may weaken and raise the inversion height slightly by tuesday/wednesday. This may enhance trade wind showers, especially along windward facing slopes.
Toward the end of the work week, a front approaching from the north may bring a noticeable change in local weather conditions. As a new high passes far north of the region, guidance remains in good agreement that a cold front will push down through the islands. This front will bring a band of low clouds and showers from Thursday into Friday. Breezy trades and cooler, drier air will likely follow behind this front by this weekend. The forecast reflects the current timing of the front, with an increase in showers from Thursday into Friday. There are still some uncertainties in the timing of this front and its associated changes to our weather, so there may be adjustments to the forecast in the next couple of days.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 at the shore to around 55 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Lows around 68 at the shore to around 56 at 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 52 at 7000 feet to around 49 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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