I’ve decided to take a last minute short vacation and will be away until Tuesday the 18th. There won’t really be any surf aside from windswell and minor background swells while I’m gone. Thanks for your understanding.
Tiny long-period south swells will tease the summer shores but nothing really ridable will be found out there. The windswell should continue to wrap into select north and northwest shores as well, around chest to head-high levels in some areas. There are no swells on their way or expected to develop in the North Pacific through the forecast period, although smaller windswells are possible. There is a remote chance that we could see a bit of small to low-end moderate south-southwest to south swell arriving around Tuesday or Wednesday but don’t get your hopes up. The South Pacific remains in a zonal west to east pattern and little to no change is expected soon. The long-range models are hinting toward a change around the middle of next week, but no significant swell producers are appearing in the models. In other words, a fairly long period of flat to tiny conditions should be expected.
East and northeast facing shores should remain in the 5-8 foot range today but it is on the way down. North and northwest facing shores should pick up some wrapping windswell at select breaks around 3-5+ foot while other breaks stay flat. Upper West shores are also picking up some of this wrapping windswell at 3-5+ foot. South facing shores have a fading background swell around 0-3 foot. Not much is on the way… pray for surf.
Wind and Tide InformationLow tide at Kahului was 0.66 foot at 1:02 AM late last night, rising to a high of 1.0 foot at 5:29 AM early this morning, then dropping to a low of 0.42 foot at 10:57 AM this morning, before once again rising to a high of 2.02 foot at 6:25 PM early this evening. The sunrise was at 05:43 am this morning and will set at 07:09 pm this evening. The Moon is in a waxing crescent phase and will reach First Quarter Sunday.
The east to northeasterly tradewinds will continue to slowly fade but will still be around 10-20+ mph today, slowly fading into the weekend and holding, possibly increase a bit early next week.
Sunset: 7:09 PM
Weather Outlook for Friday
Breezy trade winds will continue today, before easing slightly over the weekend. Frequent showers will favor windward coasts and slopes through tonight, with some showers spreading to leeward areas on the smaller islands. Trade wind showers will remain somewhat active over windward areas through the weekend, but fewer showers are expected to spread leeward.
Breezy and wet trade wind weather in the short term will ease slightly this weekend, but trade winds and passing windward showers will continue to prevail.
Currently, locally strong trade winds are being supported by a pair of 1033 mb highs centered N and NE of the islands. Although early morning soundings show that a subsidence inversion remains in place, capping the incoming moisture to the lowest 10 kft of the atmosphere, regional satellite imagery shows the trade wind flow upstream of the islands contains scattered to broken showery low clouds, that are moving toward the WSW at speeds close to 30 mph. Thin high clouds near and W of the Big Island are associated with a weak and broad trough aloft that has an axis about 400 miles W of the islands.
The forecast calls for the surface highs to merge far NNE of the islands later this morning, with the resultant high then drifting SE and slowly weakening through Sunday, which will allow trade winds to ease slightly over the weekend. The high will then strengthen slightly early next week far NE of the islands, and moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail for most of next week. Latest global model runs continue to indicate that trade winds will ease another notch toward the end of next week as a trough develops NW of the islands.
Somewhat difficult to anticipate how much drying of the trade wind flow occurs as trade wind speeds ease over the weekend, as forecast models continue to develop a weak mid- and upper-level low near the islands. As a result, 700 mb temperatures are forecast to cool several degrees Saturday and Sunday, and it looks like a somewhat wet trade wind pattern will persist into next week. Less showers should spread leeward however as trades ease.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Frequent showers until mid morning, then showers likely in the late morning and afternoon. Breezy. Highs 66 to 83. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Mostly cloudy. Frequent showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Breezy. Highs around 81 at the shore to around 67 at 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68 at the shore to around 54 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Breezy. Lows around 50. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
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