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Trade winds have strengthened as a high far north of the state moves east through the weekend. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the typically windier waters adjacent to Maui County and the Big Island, and will likely continue through Sunday night. The winds will then ease and veer to the east- southeast early next week as the high moves northeast of the area ahead of a front approaching from the northwest.

Surf will remain small to moderate along south facing shores through the middle of next week. A new long-period south swell may cause surf to approach the High Surf Advisory criteria late next week.

A small northwest swell will produce a slight bump in surf for the smaller islands this weekend, before lowering into early next week. Small, choppy surf along east facing shores may get a slight boost later this weekend as the trade winds strengthen, then another increase around mid-week due to a developing fetch of moderate trades east of the islands.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

The sunrise was at 05:45 am this morning and will set at 06:59 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 15 days old, and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 4:34 PM on Sunday, May 26th.

Maui Weather

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Wind: n/a at 0 mph
Sunrise:
Sunset:
current observations as of 2am May 25th, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 18th May 2019

Summary

A modestly strong high pressure system of 1024 mb will be passing north of the islands this weekend, upholding the moderate to locally strong trades through Sunday night. A surface front stalls west of Kauai early next week, causing a brief disruption to the trade winds by replacing the trades with a muggy southeast wind flow. A true trade wind flow is slated to return to all islands by the end of next weekend.

Detailed Discussion

A 1024 mb high is centered 780 miles north of Kauai this early Saturday morning, is moving east at a pretty fast pace of 30 mph. The high is providing a nice breeze across the islands that will last through Sunday night. A change then takes place as a front stalls some 300 miles west northwest of Kauai on Tuesday . The front’s approach to the islands will cause a rapid change in our wind pattern, altering the cool east- northeast trades with a muggy southeast component on Monday. Our winds may even become light and variable over the western islands between Monday and Tuesday, before turning east- southeast on Wednesday, then slowly turning into trades by Sunday of next week.

Some differences persist between the ECMWF and GFS overall, but they tend to agree with the surface front stalling west of Kauai on Tuesday through Wednesday. In closer detail, however, the GFS stalls front closer to Kauai/Ni`ihau, thus threatening these two islands with some heavy showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. The EC on the other hand, has the front stalling further west, thus keeping the heavy weather away from Kauai and Ni`ihau. We will be watching out for this development over the weekend. We currently favors the EC solution, of course.

When the winds become southeast, and possibly south, on Monday over the western islands, an inversion will still be present between 8 and 10k feet, area wide. This inversion will aid in limiting the convective showers slated for Monday afternoon, especially over Kauai and Oahu. The forecast for the ensuing next couple of days, Tuesday through Wednesday, is uncertain at this time. As per GFS solution, the inversion is weaker, or gone by Tuesday afternoon, thus increasing the potential for heavy showers for Kauai. However, if we follow the EC, Kauai, and the other islands, will be fine, with a similar outlook to Monday. Long story short, for the winds after Wednesday, an east-southeast wind flow slowly becomes locally strong trades by Saturday, although the GFS is faster by Friday.

In the meantime, the band of moisture over Maui earlier in the evening, has shifted toward Oahu, with Kauai up next. Similar to the past couple of mornings, the showers have gone deep into leeward territory on Oahu. We expect the showers to trim back some as the day progresses or retreat to the Koolau’s. Showers may become more persistent on Kauai as the band homes in on the Garden Isle, and this may persist into Sunday. Maui should see more sunshine today, followed by Moloka`i and Lana`i by this afternoon.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds up to 20 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 15 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 at the shore to around 54 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Lows around 69 at the shore to 54 to 59 upcountry. East winds up to 15 mph.

Haleakala Summit

Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

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