Tiny surf should continue along our north and northwest facing shores today, but wave heights will likely only reach chest-high levels at the better breaks and will be quite a bit smaller at the lesser exposed locations. Moderate windswell should still be found near head-high levels along our windward shores, but it will be choppy and sloppy. This windswell should continue into the weekend but will then fade into next week. A low developed in the Northwest Pacific late last weekend and set up a fetch asimed fairly well toward our islands which should result in a moderate to near high northwest swell arriving late this afternoon or early evening. This energy should build overnight, holding through Thursday and then dropping to more lower-end moderate levels through Friday, but there should still be plenty of overhead surf to play on Saturday. The windswell should continue on into the weekend, but don’t expect much. Nothing more than tiny background swell should be expected along the south facing shores, but don’t be surprised if an inconsistent and small set or two limps into some breaks. We may get a little edge-pass Friday thanks to angular spreading from a low near Easter Island, but the odds are exceptionally low. As usual, get what you can while it’s here, there isn’t a whole lot of surf in the forecast. Be patient as the seasons transition, and pray that we get a good summer season.
North and northwest facing shores should be in the 2-5 foot range today, but a new swell may arrive later in the day to raise the surf to overhead levels. Upper West shores won’t see much action at only 1-3 foot, but again, rising surf should be expected later in the day. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores should stay around 4-6 foot. South facing shores have no swell to mention and should stay near flat at 0-2 foot.
Wind and Tide Information
Low tide at Kahului was 0.4 foot at 6:21 AM early this morning, rising to a high of 1.1 foot at 11:46 AM shortly before noon, then dropping to a low of 0.4 foot at 5:06 PM late this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 2.0 foot at 11:58 PM shortly before midnight
The sunrise was at 05:58 am this morning and will set at 06:49 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 23 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 6:17 AM on Tuesday, April 29th.
The east-northeast to northeasterly tradewinds will remain breezy to strong around 15-25 mph today, increasing Thursday and Friday to fairly strong levels, possibly even through Saturday. The winds are expected to slacken a bit later in the weekend, possibly down to low-end moderate levels before becoming more northeast to north-northeasterlies next week.
Sunset: 6:48 PM
Weather Outlook for Wednesday
Strong ridging north of the state will continue to drive breezy and gusty trade winds through Friday. Showers carried by the trades will continue to be focused mainly along windward facing slopes of the island chain, but some brief showers will continue to be blown over to leeward sections of the smaller islands, especially during nights and mornings. There may be a slight increase in showers across parts of the state on Thursday. The trade wind speeds are expected to gradually decline from late Saturday into early next week.
A 1029 mb surface high centered near 33°N 142°W, or more than 1200 miles northeast of Honolulu, is moving toward the southeast at about 10 mph. A surface ridge extends west southwest from this high through a point about 625 miles north of Honolulu. The relatively tight pressure gradient south of these features continues to maintain breezy and gusty trade winds across the main Hawaiian islands early this evening.
The close proximity of a strong mid-tropospheric anticyclone northeast of the islands is maintaining stable atmospheric conditions across the region tonight. As a result, the low-level trade wind inversion was below 4 thousand feet at Lihue in the early afternoon sounding, while it was about 7 thousand feet at Hilo at the same time. These relatively low inversion heights have contributed to maintaining the gusty trade winds across parts of the state today. This is especially true in valleys downwind of higher terrain, such as the Koolau mountain range. Satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data also show limited shower bearing clouds over and upstream of the state. Therefore, the stable conditions due to the mid-tropospheric anticyclone are likely contributing to the reduction of rainfall over most of the region. Note that an upper tropospheric trough near Kauai continues to send patches of cirrus moving up over the western end of the island chain at dusk this evening.
The forecast models indicate strong surface ridging will continue north of the islands between latitudes 30°N and 33°N through Friday. The tight pressure gradient south of this ridging will keep the trade winds breezy and gusty. Also, the strong mid-tropospheric ridging over the region will maintain stable atmospheric conditions through the end of the work week. At the same time, the low-level trade wind inversion will cause periods of enhanced wind gusts over and downwind of higher terrain across parts of the state. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models suggest there may be another increase in 850 mb winds by late Thursday at the same time a new surface high passes north of the state. This could lead to another round of strong trade winds, which may require the issuance of wind advisories for parts of the state.
In regards to low clouds and precipitation, the forecast guidance indicates we should continue to have a rather typical trade wind weather pattern with low clouds and showers mainly affecting windward facing slopes. However, the remnant moisture from a decaying front east northeast of the state will likely ride in on the increasing low-level trade wind flow by Thursday. As a result, there may be a slight increase in precipitation over windward and mauka areas Thursday. At the same time, the strengthening trade winds may carry some of these showers over to leeward sections of some of the smaller islands, especially during the nights and mornings. Besides the potentially wetter conditions around Thursday, the forecast guidance does not show any other organized system of showers moving into the area through this weekend.
In regards to the cirrus near the islands, the upper level trough is forecast to continue to weaken and lift out to the northeast. However, a new upper level trough moving into the area this weekend may produce high clouds again starting Saturday.
The longer range forecast models indicate the trade wind speeds will begin to decrease from later this weekend into early next week as the surface ridge to the north of the area weakens. The trade wind weather pattern is expected to continue, with mainly windward and mauka showers. However, a remnant frontal band may move southward and reach the state next week. Based on the latest guidance, this feature may enhance rainfall across parts of the state starting late Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Breezy. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 58 to 70. East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 at the shore to around 52 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 68 at the shore to around 52 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Windy. Lows around 47 at 7000 feet to around 43 at the summit. East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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