Small and short-period northwest swell will only offer surf around waist-high levels, potentially reaching chest-high at the best locations. A small to low-end moderate windswell may provide a little something to ride along our east and northeast facing shores and maybe even wrapping into select north shore breaks. The weather will be rather unsettled today with scattered showers across the island, likely heavy at times. Tiny leftovers may still be found along select south and west shores today, but nothing over waist-high should be expected. We may see a new south-southeast swell arriving overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, but wave heights are not expected to rise above small levels. Our next chance for any decent surf will arrive overnight Sunday into Monday reaching moderate levels at best. This swell was produced as a low developed near the international dateline late last week, occluding Friday while aiming a captured fetch toward Hawai`i. We may see forerunners arriving as early as sunset Sunday, but it is far more likely that we’ll have to wait until Monday morning here on Maui. This energy will peak Monday morning and will then slowly fade into Wednesday. Another low developed near the Kuril Islands Friday but it is already breaking up. Energy from this storm would only reach small levels due to the short fetch duration and long-distance travelled. Although another Kuril low is forecast to develop Monday, this low is predicted to track toward the northeast without aiming much of a fetch in our direction and it is doubtful that we would see any swell at all. Looking further out doesn’t hold much promise, so cross those fingers and pray for surf.
Today’s Surf Summary
North and northwest facing shores may reach into the 2-4 foot range or slightly higher at the best locations, potentially a little larger on Sunday. Upper West shroes will likely stay closer to flat at 1-3 foot. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores may reach 3-5 foot if we are lucky. South facing shores have only lingering surf in the 1-3 foot range.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.0 foot at 12:29 AM just after midnight, dropping to a low of 0.7 foot at 7:25 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 1.0 foot at 11:33 AM shortly before noon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.1 foot at 5:40 PM late this afternoon
The sunrise was at 06:44 am this morning and will set at 06:31 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 10 days old, and is in a Waxing Gibbous phase. The next Full Moon will occur at 6:06 PM on Thursday, March 5th.
Northeasterly tradewinds may reach 10-20 mph today with gusts possibly reaching 30 mph in some areas. The winds are expected to increase over the next several days.
Sunset: 6:30 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
A weakening front currently near Maui will drift slowly eastward today. Moisture along this front combined with instability aloft due to an upper trough will produce locally heavy downpours along with a slight chance for thunderstorms across the eastern half of the state. Drier weather will prevail across the western sections. Trade winds will spread across the state on Sunday as the front dissipates, but lingering enhanced moisture and instability will remain near the Big Island with locally heavy rains once again possible. A wet and breezy trade wind pattern will prevail across the state from Monday through at least the middle of next week.
Widely scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms have persisted around the Big Island during the night, although most of the activity has remained offshore. Radar returns streaming over Maui county appear to be caused by thick mid level clouds, with rain gauges showing very little recent precip there. Mostly dry conditions prevail further west over Oahu and Kauai, with just some isolated light rainfall amounts measured during the night. Surface analysis depicts a weak front through the center of the state, likely located near Maui at this time. Northerly low level winds have spread over Kauai and Oahu to the west of this boundary, while light NE to E winds prevail to the east. Aloft, the state lies under the exit region of a 100+ kt jet streak over the central Pacific, and in the southeast quadrant of a mid level trough. The 12Z Lihue sounding measured cold 500 mb temps of -14C, but a rather meager pwat of only 1.06 inches, and an inversion based around 8000 feet with a very dry profile above. In contrast, the 12Z Hilo sounding was notably moist and unstable, with pwat of 1.61 inches, sbcape over 1800 j/kg, no convective inhibition, 500 mb temp of -11C and a lifted index of -6.
Mimic-tpw satellite imagery shows a band of enhanced moisture over the central and eastern parts of the state, with estimated pwats up to 1.7 inches. A considerably drier airmass has pushed into Kauai and is spreading into Oahu.
For today, the weak front/trough will continue drifting east to near the Big Island, with n/ne low level flow spreading across Maui county in its wake. Enhanced low/mid level moisture will remain pooled along and to the east of the trough, and the atmosphere will remain unstable aloft as the mid level trough and the upper level jet stream exit region moves only slightly eastward. As a result, a chance for scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist over the Big Island and Maui county. Models have trended to a drier solution for Oahu, and have removed mention of heavy rains there. Mainly dry weather will continue across Kauai today, with scattered showers confined to the northern slopes and mountains.
Tonight and Sunday, the dissipating front/trough will continue drifting slowly eastward. Enhanced moisture along the front combined with continued instability aloft and the nearby jet stream will maintain the chance for locally heavy rains and isolated thunderstorms over eastern sections of the state. Further to the west, scattered showers will become focused over windward and mauka sections of Oahu as trade winds increase. Drier conditions will continue on Kauai with just some light showers possible in the mountains and on the windward slopes.
A wet and breezy trade wind pattern will likely develop statewide Sunday night and Monday, then persist through at least the middle of next week. A lingering mid/upper level trough overhead will maintain somewhat unstable conditions aloft with the usual mid level inversion likely remaining weak or absent, and model consensus shows plenty of available low level moisture being pushed against the terrain by brisk trade wind flow.
The latest ECMWF and GFS diverge somewhat toward the end of next week. Both models keep strong trades in place, but the ec pushes a drier airmass south across the state while the GFS keeps moisture further north in response to a developing low pressure area near the dateline.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 58 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 69 at the shore to around 52 at 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows around 67 at the shore to 51 to 58 upcountry. Light winds. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows around 41 at the visitor center to around 35 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
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