The large north-northwest swell wills stick around through the day near or above advisory levels, offering surf in the double-overhead range at many of the best breaks and well overhead surf in other lesser exposed areas. The High Surf Advisory will remain in effect through 6pm this evening, but surf heights will likely drop below the advisory criteria here on Maui earlier this afternoon. A series of reinforcing swells will keep well overhead surf active through the middle of the week. Tuesday may see a bit more west in this energy which would largely be blocked by Moloka`i, but some other areas could open up if you know where to look. An overlapping north-northwesterly swell also arriving Tuesday will keep the surf active on the north shore. Looking further out there isn’t much to look forward to as far as significant swells are concerned, but a few minor swells will keep us from going flat. It’s still a bit too early for any specifics, but at this time it looks like we’ll have to wait until next weekend before any new swells appear. There may be an edge-pass later in the week, but most of that energy will likely miss Hawai`i. Shifting focus to the southern hemisphere, a severe gale over a broad fetch southeast of New Zealand sent a moderate south-southwest to south swell our way, which should reach our south shores Sunday, peaking monday with a slow fade into the mid-week. It won’t be anything to get excited over, but maybe we’ll see a few fun sets at a few summer breaks. Another chance for southwest swell is possible around Friday or Saturday, but this direction rarely produces any surf here on Maui.
North and northwest facing shores should see moderate to large surf around 8-12+ foot at the better exposed breaks. Upper West shores should also see surf around 3-5+ foot or larger if you know where to look. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores is tiny at best, but some breaks may pull in wrapping north-northwest swell around 1-3+ foot. South facing shores may rise into the 1-4 foot later in the day as a new south-southwest swell arrives.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.3 foot at 6:53 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.6 foot at 2:19 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.2 foot at 7:48 PM this evening.
The sunrise was at 06:50 am this morning and will set at 05:46 pm this evening. The Moon is in a waxing crescent phase and will reach First Quarter Monday.
The light and variable winds will continue around 0-10 mph, primarily out of the southwest to southeast, potentially a bit stronger in some areas through early afternoon. We should get one more day of these light winds before moderately breezy easterly tradewinds reestablish Tuesday through the rest of the week.
Sunset: 5:45 PM
Weather Outlook for Sunday
Weak high pressure over the island chain will keep light winds with increasing haze and humidity during the next couple of days. An upper level low well south of the islands will push enough moisture and instability into the area for a few downpours to develop over the Big Island today, along with increasing chances of showers over the smaller islands through Monday. The trades are expected to return on Tuesday as high pressure builds north of the state.
Abundant moisture embedded in the southeast flow will continue to move across the Big Island today with better chances of rain over the southeast slopes of Mauna Loa and south portions of the leeward slopes. An upper level low can be observed in water vapor satellite imagery about 690 miles south-southwest of the island chain, which is contributing to the increase in cloud cover and shower activity across the Big Island. This low has moved little during the late night hours, but latest model guidance has it migrating east-northeast during the next couple of days.
The deeper moisture and the higher instability will continue to affect mostly the Big Island this morning, with best chances for heavy showers over the Kau district. The deeper moisture layer will gradually spread across the smaller this afternoon and through Monday, bring increasing cloud cover and shower activity. Winds will veer and weaken a little more today with possible south flow establishing in the afternoon. There will be enough moisture available for a round of afternoon showers over interior and north portions of the smaller islands if the flow weakens enough.
For the rest of the week, a mid level ridge is shown by the models establishing right over the aloha state by Tuesday, with surface high pressure also strengthening north of the island chain. This synoptic scenario will bring a return of the trades and clear out the haze and humidity, with a more typical trade wind shower regime establishing through at least Thursday.
The trades may be disrupted again late Thursday as a frontal boundary moves to the north of the islands while gradually dissipating. Another strong high will move in to the north of the main Hawaiian islands towards next weekend.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming light late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 63 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 61 to 79. Northeast winds around 10 mph until mid morning becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 at the shore to around 64 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 66 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 50 at 7000 feet to around 43 at the summit. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
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