Our north and northwest facing shores will continue to see fading medium to short period swell out of the north-northwest Saturday, potentially holding onto similar wave heights through Sunday. The better exposed breaks could pull in sets reaching well overhead levels while other breaks come in closer to chest to head-high levels. Another large north-northwest swell is expected to arrive Monday to bring the surf back to advisory levels. This next swell will be an edge-pass though, so it won’t stick around for more than a few days. The south facing shores have no swell to mention at the moment and nothing more the background swell and flatness is expected throughout the forecast period. The North Pacific has an unimpressive, yet complicated weather pattern stretching from the Kuril Islands into the Gulf of Alaska. A gale developed Friday that is producing a fetch aimed further east of the islands and it is expected to continue pushing southeast to within 1000 miles of Hawai`i later in the weekend. The resulting swell should reach us by before lunch Monday morning, increasing to upper-end moderate to low-end large levels when it peaks overnight into Tuesday. It should be a relatively short-lived swell with wave heights quickly dropping to small levels by Wednesday. Looking farther west the models are showing a low pushing off from the Kuril Islands today, increasing in intensity while tracking west along the Aleutians. The resulting northwest swell should reach our shores Thursday at moderarate levels. No significant swells are expected throughout the forecast period.
Today’s Surf Summary
North and northwest facing shores should still see surf in the 5-8+ foot range with some areas pulling in sets over 10 foot on the face. Upper West shores will come in smaller at 3-5+ foot but some areas could see larger sets. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores will likely only come in around the lower end of 2-5 foot. South facing shores will remain near flat at 0-2 foot with no swell to mention.
Wind and Tide Information
Low tide at Kahului was 1.0 foot at 2:09 AM late last night, rising to a high of 1.9 foot at 9:33 AM this morning, then dropping to a low of 0.6 foot at 5:01 PM late this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.4 foot at 11:25 PM shortly before midnight
The sunrise was at 06:35 am this morning and will set at 05:45 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 23 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 12:32 PM on Saturday, November 22nd.
Light winds out of the southwest to west should be expected today, reaching windspeeds around 5-15 mph. A slight weakening is expected later in the day and overnight into Sunday as the winds swing back around to a more typical northeasterly direction over the next few days. Moderate northeasterlies should be expected through the first half of the week, potentially increaseing to breezy levels over the second half.
Sunset: 5:43 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
An upper trough will continue to produce locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning, as a weak cold front approaches the state from the northwest. The front will reach Kauai this afternoon, then move southeast over the other islands tonight through Sunday. A much drier and more stable airmass will spread eastward across the state from this afternoon through Sunday as the front moves through. Building high pressure to the north of the state behind the front will produce locally breezy trade winds from Monday through much of next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms have continued across central and eastern parts of the state during the night, with considerably less activity observed around Kauai. Some of the showers have generated locally heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, and a number of flood advisories have been issued. All of this activity is firing within an unstable and somewhat moist airmass at the base of a large mid/upper trough over the central Pacific. Water vapor imagery and the 12Z soundings indicate that a drier airmass is starting to spread into the state from the west, with a very dry profile above 700 mb at Lihue. The Hilo sounding found a much more moist profile below 500 mb, with an above normal pwat of 1.68 inches. At the surface, a cold front across the central Pacific is located about 150 miles NW of Kauai and moving SE at 10 kt.
Strong west winds continue on the Big Island summits due to the proximity of the mid level trough, and the wind advisory has been extended through 6 pm this evening. Model data indicates that winds should begin to decrease during the evening.
Today, the highest rain chances will remain focused across Oahu and Maui county this morning, where current radar trends and model data continue to indicate an area of low/mid level moisture convergence within WSW flow ahead of the front. Will include a mention of locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunder from Oahu eastward through the Big Island for this morning. A drier and more stable airmass will spread eastward across the state this afternoon through Sunday as the upper trough moves further away to the east and the surface front moves through. This should bring an end to the thunder and heavy rains, with shower coverage and intensity decreasing during the afternoon. The front is expected to reach Kauai late this afternoon and the central islands tonight. The front will then become diffuse while passing south of the Big Island on Sunday.
A stable and rather dry moderate to locally breezy trade wind pattern appears likely to develop across the state Sunday night and Monday, then persist through most of the upcoming week. An east-west surface ridge axis will remain a few hundred miles to our north, and a flat mid level ridge over the state combined with a relatively dry airmass will probably keep trade wind showers on the light side even across the favored windward and mauka areas. The latest models keep the next cold front well to the northwest of the state through next Friday, with typical trade wind weather continuing.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening,then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening,then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 63 to 69. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening,then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 57 to 68. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening,then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 66 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening,then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 66 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at 7000 feet to around 40 at the summit. West winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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