The National Weather Service has issued a High Surf Advisory in effect through 6pm Sunday evening for Maui’s north and east facing shores due to a rising large north to north-northwest swell. this large swell and strong trades will keep surf heights above advisory levels over north and east facing shores now through Sunday evening and will likely remain elevated from Sunday night through the first half of next week thanks to another smaller northwest swell which is expected to arrive Monday evening. A moderate south-southeast swell is expected to arrive Monday through Wednesday of next week due to an oriented fetch created by a tropical disturbance currently south of the Big Island. Conditions will not be very favorable due to strong local winds.
An exceptionally strong storm is passing under New Zealand this weekend with the potential to send up some significant energy, but its track is fairly zonal. The storm is expected to rapidly track from west to east which limits the fetch aimed in our direction. However, angular spreading should allow some decent energy to be sent our way, arriving around Friday the 9th. Additional activity through the rest of the forecast period may keep our south shores active for quite a while. Two tropical systems near the islands may produce rough short-period swell from the south to southeast over the next few days, but the life cycle of these systems will be very difficult to predict as will any swells produced. All in all, there should be plenty surf to be found throughout the forecast period.
Today’s Surf Summary
North and northwest facing shores should build to levels well overhead around the 8-12++ foot range depending on exposure. Upper West shores may see some action as well in the 4-6+ foot range, possibly much larger at the best locations. Windswell and wrapping northerly swell should be found along east and northeast facing shores around 5-8+ foot as well. South facing shores may have small to moderate surf around 2-4+ foot.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.1 foot at 7:05 AM this morning, dropping to a low of 1.2 foot at 2:29 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.2 foot at 4:33 PM late this afternoon, before once again dropping to a of foot at just after midnight
The sunrise was at 06:16 am this morning and will set at 06:12 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 21 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 12:06 AM on Tuesday, October 13th.
Northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph should continue across most of the island today and trough the next several days, likely increasing further around the middle of the week.
Sunset: 6:08 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
Breezy and gusty trades will prevail through the next several days as the islands remain between high pressure to the north and two tropical systems to the south. Increasing tropical moisture from the south and a wetter weather pattern will affect the islands during the rest of the weekend with best chances of rain over the eastern half of the state. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms for the Big Island from later today through Sunday. The western half of the island chain should remain under a trade wind regime with a little more showers tracking through.
Surface analysis and model data show a strong surface high pressure system centered far north of the state while two tropical systems remain to the south of the islands. This synoptic scenario is keeping rather tight pressure gradients across the area through early next week.
The rather benign weather pattern from the past couple of days will gradually deteriorate starting later today and through early next week as tropical depression Seven-C moves closer to the Big Island. Increasing moisture and even a few thunderstorms associated with Seven-C could reach the Big Island this evening. Better chances of rain will reside over the eastern half of the island chain. The forecast will also continue to carry a slight chance of thunderstorms for the Big Island from tonight and through late Sunday, and could be expanded into Maui county as new model data becomes available today.
For Oahu and Kauai, the forecast will closely depend on the outcome of the aforementioned tropical systems, especially Seven-C currently lingering south of the Big Island. At this time it is too early to tell what kind of impacts, if any, these systems will bring to the islands particularly over Maui county and the Big Island. Stay tuned for updates regarding the progress of this rather complicated forecast scenario for the next several days.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 71 to 78. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 84 at the shore to around 71 at 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 74 at the shore to 56 to 63 upcountry. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Scattered showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible after midnight. Lows around 57 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
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