The latest ascat pass around midnight showed 20 to 25 kt northwest winds in the wake of a cold front that was located around 200 miles northwest of Kauai. This boundary will quickly sweep through the state later today through Sunday. Drier and slightly cooler air along with gusty NW to N winds will fill in over the marine areas through this time. As a result, a small craft advisory for winds and seas will remain in place from this afternoon through Sunday and will likely be expanded over the Big Island waters this afternoon as the front begins to move through. Although the winds will relax Monday and Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure sets up over the state, a moderate to large NW swell will likely result in the small craft advisory being extended through Monday night. This swell will generate near advisory-level surf along north facing shores through this time.
The next large northwest swell is expected Wednesday through Thursday, which will likely generate well above warning-level surf along the exposed north and west facing shores. The latest ensemble wave guidance supports this swell building through the day Wednesday, peaking through the Wednesday night period and slowly easing Thursday through Friday. However, provided the current ensemble spread in the guidance this far out in the forecast, further fine-tuning with regard to the timing and peak will remain possible over the coming days as the strong low pressure associated with this swell evolves and lifts northeast toward the Aleutian islands through the weekend and into Monday.
High tide at Kahului was 2.5 foot at 1:52 AM late last night, dropping to a low of 0.7 foot at 8:18 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 1.4 foot at 12:54 PM just after noon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.4 foot at 7:11 PM early this evening
The sunrise was at 06:59 am this morning and will set at 06:20 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 27 days old, and is in a New Moon phase. The next Waxing Crescent will occur at 11:27 PM on Saturday, January 16th.
Sunset: 6:22 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
Fair and mostly dry weather will prevail across the state through much of today. A strong cold front will reach Kauai late this afternoon, then sweep southeast through the remainder of the state tonight into Sunday morning, bringing widespread showers and gusty north winds. Windy, cool and dry weather will spread over the islands behind the front. Winds will decrease Monday as weakening high pressure settles southward toward the islands, then gentle trade winds will prevail through the middle of the week as weak high pressure lingers north of the state.
An area of cloudiness along with widely scattered light showers continues to linger across the central islands early this morning. Cloudiness and scattered showers also persist southeast of the Big Island. Mostly clear and dry conditions prevail elsewhere across the state. Surface analysis depicts a well- defined cold front located about 250 miles northwest of Kauai as of 3 am. This front is moving quickly to the southeast at about 25 mph. High pressure is building eastward across the international dateline behind this front. Aloft, a mid-latitude trough axis is located along 165°W and is moving quickly eastward, supporting the surface cold front. The 12Z soundings at Lihue and Hilo show dry and stable conditions present ahead of the front, with inversions based around 5k feet and pwats near 0.85 inches, although mimic-tpw satellite imagery does show an area of higher moisture with estimated pwats up to 1.4 inches over the central islands.
Gentle winds and mostly dry conditions will continue across the state today ahead of the advancing cold front. The light background flow will allow sea breezes to develop, along with clouds and some light showers. The advancing cold front appears to be on track to reach Kauai late this afternoon, Oahu early this evening, Maui county during the night, and the Big Island by early Sunday morning. This front will bring a temporary increase in clouds and showers, but strong northerly winds behind the front will be the primary weather concern. We have posted a wind advisory for kauai/niihau beginning at 2 pm this afternoon, and for Oahu beginning at 6 pm this evening. This advisory will run through Sunday afternoon. Sustained winds up to 30 mph and wind gusts up to 55 mph are forecast, with the strongest winds likely downwind of higher terrain and in north-facing valleys. The wind advisory may need to be expanded across parts of Maui county and the Big Island later as the strong winds are forecast to spread over those areas overnight into Sunday, but will let the day shift make that determination.
The coolest airmass of the season will spread into the state behind the front and linger into early next week. Dewpoints will drop well into the 50s, and overnight lows will be quite cool with many areas seeing readings in the lower to mid 60s, and mid to upper 50s at some locations even in the lower elevations. Sunday and Monday nights will see the coolest temperatures. Daytime highs Sunday and Monday will be rather cool as well, with highs only in the 70s for most areas.
Winds will decrease across the state on Monday as high pressure weakens and settles southward to near Kauai. It appears that a weak ridge will then remain just north of the state through much of next week, maintaining gentle trade wind flow over the islands. The latest GFS and ECMWF keep the next front north of the state around midweek, although the earlier 00Z GFS run brought the tail end of the front or shear line through the western islands during that time. Otherwise, a dry and stable airmass will remain over the state through next week, with little rainfall expected.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then mostly clear late in the evening. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers after midnight. Lows 72 to 78. North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Breezy. Mostly clear in the evening, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the morning. Lows around 73. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Breezy. Mostly clear in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers early in the morning. Lows 62 to 77. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Partly cloudy in the evening. Isolated showers early in the evening. Scattered showers in the late evening and early morning, then frequent showers early in the morning. Lows around 75 at the shore to around 56 at 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph with gusts to 30 mph shifting to the north with gusts to 45 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 74 at the shore to 53 to 65 upcountry. Northeast winds up to 10 mph with gusts to 40 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 38 at the summit. West winds around 10 mph early in the evening becoming light, then becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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