Forerunners of a large incoming west-northwest swell have been arriving on schedule at buoy 51101 to the northwest of Kauai as of Saturday morning. A Friday evening satellite altimetry pass showed that this swell appears to be running close to the Wavewatch guidance levels, and the latest wave model has also come into much better agreement with the Wavewatch on the timing of this swell. Surf on Kauai is expected to build to warning levels (25 ft north/20 ft west) during the day, then peak Saturday night into Sunday morning. Warning level surf should continue through the day Sunday, before gradually subsiding early next week. The more westerly direction of the swell will likely cause Kauai to shadow the other smaller islands. The current forecast continues to hold surf for exposed north and west facing shores of Oahu and Maui County just under warning levels. A slightly larger more northwest swell could bring warning level surf to Oahu and Maui County as well. Surf along west facing shores of the Big Island is also forecast to reach low-end warning level (12 ft) Saturday night through Sunday night. A high surf warning has been posted for north/west facing shores of Niihau and Kauai, and for the west facing shores of the Big Island. A High Surf Advisory has been posted for north/west facing shores of Oahu and Molokai, and for north facing shores of Maui.
Otherwise, small long period south swells will continue through this weekend and into next week, with a slightly larger long period south swell forecast for Wednesday night through Friday. High pressure strengthening northeast of the state will provide locally breezy conditions through the weekend. Another large west-northwest swell will be possible from next Friday into the following weekend.
High tide at Kahului was 2.2 foot at 1:14 AM late last night, dropping to a low of 0.3 foot at 7:37 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 1.6 foot at 1:09 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.1 foot at 7:08 PM early this evening
The sunrise was at 06:22 am this morning and will set at 06:39 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 27 days old, and is in a New Moon phase. The next Waxing Crescent will occur at 11:33 AM on Sunday, March 5th.
Sunset: 6:38 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
A persistent ridge of high pressure north of the islands will keep trade winds blowing across local waters through the week, with a slight increase into the locally breezy range expected through this weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward slopes, especially at night and in the mornings. Slightly weaker trade winds are expected by midweek as upper troughing develops across the area.
A surface ridge extending east to west along 27N, to the north of the main Hawaiian islands, keeps moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds blowing across local waters this morning. Remnant moisture from an old frontal boundary passed west of the islands overnight, leaving a typical trade wind weather pattern of clouds and showers locally.
Satellite loop shows scant low cloud cover statewide, with scattered clouds lingering mainly across windward shores and slopes of the smaller islands. Earlier cloud cover across the Big Island has decreased dramatically, leaving mostly clear skies everywhere except for along windward shores and slopes, where scattered low clouds persist. Radar shows very little shower activity, mainly as isolated light showers embedded within trade flow upwind from Oahu and the Big Island. A single notable shower has formed over land near Kailua-Kona on the Big Island.
Models show the ridge will remain north of the islands through the forecast period, with no areas of enhanced moisture or disturbed weather expected through the weekend and into early next week. High pressure along the ridge will consolidate north and northwest of the islands, tightening the local pressure gradient and causing trades to increase today across the eastern half of the main island chain. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with leeward areas of the Big Island expected to cloud up each afternoon and evening, then clear out each night. Deep troughing forecast during the middle of next week west of 170W will weaken the pressure gradient across the islands, causing trade winds to decrease slightly from Tuesday onwards. An uptick in windward rainfall may occur Tuesday or Wednesday as ridging aloft is eroded by a trough skirting by to the north.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM HST MONDAY. Sunny and breezy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM HST MONDAY. Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM HST MONDAY. Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 at the shore to around 66 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 68 at the shore to 52 to 57 upcountry. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.
Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
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