Fading northerly swell should be expected today with overhead surf still likely at the better exposed breaks and occasional higher sets at the best locations. This energy should slowly drop through Wednesday and into Thursday. A new swell is expected to arrive late Thursday into Friday out of the northwest to north-northwest but the size will be rather small, most likely barely even reaching chest-head high levels. A more west-northwesterly swell is forecast to arrive Saturday, but it too will probably stay on the small side. Tropical Storm Ana is modeled to recurve to the northwest of the islands later in the week before racing off toward the Gulf of Alaska through the weekend. This shouldn’t aim much surf toward our islands, but a little extra bump is possible over the weekend. All-in-all, tiny to small surf is possible along the winter shores through most of the period but nothing signficant is expected. There is no surf expected out of the southern hemisphere through at least Tuesday of next week. Get it while it is here as there won’t more than small stuff.
Today’s Surf Summary
North and northwest facing shores should have surf in the 4-7+ foot but it is on the way down. Upper West shores may see surf around 2-4 foot. Select south facing shores maymay see tiny surf around 1-4 foot but it will be weak and sloppy at best. East and northeast facing shores may have tiny windswell around 1-4 foot.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.3 foot at 2:43 AM late last night, dropping to a low of 0.6 foot at 8:42 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 2.0 foot at 2:16 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.0 foot at 8:34 PM early this evening
The sunrise was at 06:22 am this morning and will set at 05:57 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 28 days old, and is in a New Moon phase. The next Waxing Crescent will occur at 7:33 PM on Wednesday, October 1st.
The easterly tradewinds will remain rather light today around 5-15mph, stronger in the afternoon hours. Wednesday should be similar to today but a slow increasing trend should be expected through Friday before dropping a little further over the weekend.
Sunset: 5:53 PM
Weather Outlook for Wednesday
Tropical storm Ana continues to move away from the main Hawaiian islands. A ridge northeast of the Big Island will produce southeast flow over the main Hawaiian islands through tomorrow. A high building far north of the area will bring moderate trade winds Thursday and Friday. Winds will weaken and shift out the southeast again over the weekend as a front approaches from the northwest.
At 200 pm HST, tropical storm Ana was located about 400 miles west of Kauai and about 150 miles south of French Frigate Shoals. Ana is moving northwest around 10 mph away from the main Hawaiian islands and toward the Papahanaumokuakea marine national monument.
Satellite cloud motions continue to show east southeast flow across the main Hawaiian islands, but the Big Island is partly blocking the flow, so winds have been relatively light over the smaller islands, with local sea breezes. Satellite and radar loops show partly cloudy skies and very few showers over the islands this afternoon. It looks like one towering cumulus cloud did pop up over the slopes of Mauna Loa this afternoon, but very little rainfall was recorded through 200 pm.
An east to west ridge far northeast of the Big Island and the circulation around tropical storm Ana will combine to maintain gentle to moderate east southeast flow over the main islands through tomorrow. The east southeast flow will push some showers ashore over windward areas overnight. With the east southeast flow partly blocked by the Big Island, winds will be light enough over the smaller islands for sea breezes to dominate again tomorrow afternoon and bring some clouds and showers to leeward and interior areas. The afternoon showers may be more active tomorrow than today since the remnant of an old frontal cloud band will provide some additional moisture.
Although winds will be rather light around the smaller islands through Wednesday evening, the low level flow will remain stronger near the Big Island. Also, the east to east southeast flow will accelerate around the Big Island and could approach small craft advisory strength there.
The global models are in good agreement showing a surface high far north northwest of the area building southeast by Wednesday night. The surface ridge northeast of the islands will strengthen, and moderate to fresh east northeast trade winds will build back over the main Hawaiian islands by Thursday. The trades will persist through Friday focusing showers over windward areas with mostly dry weather over leeward areas.
The surface ridge will weaken and move south again over the weekend as a front approaches from the northwest. The winds over the main islands will weaken and shift out of the east southeast. That wind flow will likely bring scattered nighttime showers over windward areas and some clouds and showers over leeward areas in the afternoons.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning,then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 87. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 85. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning,then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 at the shore to around 69 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 at the shore to around 72 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming light late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 71 at 7000 feet to around 66 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph until late afternoon becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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