Lingering swell left over from the northwest combined with slightly increased northerly swell should continue to offer excellent surf today at overhead levels. The extra westerly component offered some fun surf for those who knew where to look, although there probably won’t be much of that left today. A new round of west-northwesterly swell is expected to arrive Saturday, but Maui will need to stay patient for the swell to work its way down the island chain. This will be a large swell that will likely raise the advisory flags, and its direction should allow some of our west exposed breaks to go off. Another larger northwest swell is expected to arrive Monday that will easily surpass advisory levels and could potentially reach near warning levels.
North and northwest facing shores should still see surf around 4-6+ foot today and some larger sets could still roll through the better breaks. Upper West shores should also continue to see a little action around 2-4 foot, again the better breaks could see a little extra size. Windswell along our east and northeast facing shores will stay relatively small at 2-4 foot but some breaks could pull in wrapping northwest swell. South shores don’t have much coming out of the south aside from tiny background swell, but some breaks could still see some westerly swell around 0-4 foot. Have fun, and get ready for the big stuff.
What’s New on OMaui
I am experimenting with a long-range forecast chart for both North and South shores which I hope will help people better plan their lives around the surf. The charts can be found below. The surf heights are approximate and of course may not be exact, so don’t put too much faith in them.
Extended Surf Forecast
North Pacific Outlook
The North Pacific is roaring back to life and has already produced a couple of good west-northwest to northwest swells this week. The next round of winter swell is on its way and should arrive Saturday near advisory levels. It was produced by a gale that formed well east of Japan and southeast of the Kuril Islands this past Wednesday. This energy was aimed well toward our islands for a couple of days before fading as it crossed the dateline Thursday. The source tracked toward the east-southeast and the remants should pass by just north and northwest of the state Saturday. The westerly component of this swell should offer large surf to some of our summer breaks for those who know where to look. A broad fetch is developing far to the west-northwest of the islands Friday and the parent low is expected to bomb in pressure which should produce a very impressive swell with seas expected well over 40 foot at the source. This energy will again be aimed very nicely toward Hawai`i. A significant northwest swell is anticipated to arrive late Monday into Tuesday and it looks like it should reach near or exceed warning levels at its peak. The models seem to fall apart in the long-term forecast so it will be difficult to predict what the rest of next week holds for Hawai`i. At the moment it doesn’t look very promising, so be sure to get what you can over these next two swells.
South Pacific Outlook
Normally we wouldn’t expect anything out of the South Pacific at this time of the year, but there is a chance for slightly enhanced background swell later in the forecast period as the storm track loosely aims some minor fetches in our general direction. By no means should this be interpretted to mean that there will be good southerly surf in our near future, but the potential for some small to moderate surf later next week and the following week is not out of the question.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.1 foot at 4:43am early this morning, dropping through the morning to a low of 0.3 foot at 11:19am shortly before noon, then rising through the afternoon to a high of 1.5 foot at 5:10pm early this evening, then dropping once again to a low of 0.6 foot at 10:39pm late this evening. The sunrise was at 7:03am this morning and will set at 6:13pm early this evening. The Moon is in a waxing crescent phase and will reach First Quarter phase this Monday.
Maui Weather
Sunset: 6:13 PM
The light and variable winds are expected to continue today with tradewinds gradually returning beginning this evening and further strengthening through the weekend. Local sea breezes will continue to focus clouds and some showers across the island interior, but showers will start to focus over windward and mauka areas. The returning tradewinds will also start to push out some of the volcanic haze that has been blanketing the islands recently. The slow moving and weakening cold front can be seen just west of Kaua`i as an upper-level trough is pasing by just north of the state. This front is expected to stall this morning.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Haze through the day. Scattered showers early in the morning. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79. South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Haze through the day. Showers likely early in the morning. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible early in the morning. Highs 75 to 80. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Haze through the day. Showers likely early in the morning. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible early in the morning. Highs 65 to 77. South winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the morning, then sunny in the morning. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 77 at the shore to around 60 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly sunny then becoming sunny late in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 78 at the shore to around 61 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Haleakala Summit
Sunny early in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at 7000 feet to around 58 at the summit. Light winds becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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