Wind Advisory

.Strong and gusty northeast winds will continue across the State through early Saturday, and may prevail through the Holiday weekend. The island of Lanai, as well as leeward Kohala, the Kohala mountains, the north Kona district and locations south of Volcano on the Big Island will experience the strongest winds with gusts up to 55 mph.

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High Surf Warning

...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HAS GENERATED A LARGE NORTH SWELL WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH TOMORROW. SURF IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW WARNING LEVELS BY THIS EVENING... THEN REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

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10-20++ foot
8-12 foot
1-3 foot
10-15 foot

A High Surf Warning remains in effect through Friday morning for the north and east facing shores of all islands due to a very large north swell plus high wind waves due to strong to near-gale force northeast trade winds. Wave heights have been running quite a bit higher than forecast by the Wave Watch III model, so our forecast heights have been adjusted up. There will be large waves breaking in north facing harbor entrances and possibly surges in those harbors, so a Marine Weather Statement is in effect. The swell will remain quite high today, then slowly subside through Saturday. A new north swell starting on Sunday will peak on Monday and subside through Tuesday. Surf from this swell may reach advisory levels. A northwest swell, and yet another north swell are expected next Wednesday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Saturday morning for strong to near-gale force northeast trade winds and large seas due to a combination of large wind waves and the large north swell. Trade winds are expected to remain strong through the first half of next week, and a new north swell will keep the seas high, so the SCA will likely be extended.

Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.3 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 1.1 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 1.1 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.3 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:40 am this morning and will set at 05:44 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 5 days old, and is in a Waxing Crescent phase. The next First Quarter will occur at 5:03 PM on Sunday, November 26th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

78°/78°
Wind: NE at 22 mph
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM
current observations as of 1pm November 24th, 2017

Weather Outlook for Thursday, 23rd November 2017

Summary

Mostly dry and windy conditions are expected to continue through the holiday weekend. Passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas, leaving leeward locations mostly dry each day. An increase in moisture will be possible through the second half of the weekend and early next week.

Detailed Discussion

The latest short term (today-Saturday) guidance remains in good agreement and supports mostly dry and windy conditions prevailing over the state into the holiday weekend. The anomalous pattern across the northern Pacific featuring dry middle- to upper-level northerly flow across the eastern Pacific due to a blocking ridge that remains established over the central Pacific is projected to continue. Strong surface high pressure (1034 mb) northwest of the state will become reinforced Friday through Saturday as a 1040 mb high builds south-southeast from the Aleutian Islands to an area north of the state.

This pattern will support breezy to windy trade wind conditions prevailing across the state due to a strong pressure gradient south of the ridge axis. Observations overnight have reflected this with some of the typically windier locations reporting 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts nearing 40 mph. The Wind Advisory has been extended through early Friday and may end up being extended further in later packages. Showers that develop will favor windward and mauka areas each day, with very little spilling over to leeward areas due to the dry airmass in place. Model precipitable water (PW) values are expected to remain around an inch, which is below average for this time of year.

For the extended (Sunday through Wednesday), guidance supports a trend toward more of a wet trade wind pattern setting up across the state, especially over Maui County and the Big Island. This combined with falling upper heights due to a shortwave trough diving southward into the area will support increasing shower coverage by early next week. Model PWs are forecast to climb above average through this time with the greatest source of deeper moisture becoming focused over the southeastern end of the island chain (where PWs near/reach the 2″ mark by Sunday night). This deeper source of moisture combined with cooler temperatures aloft may translate to snow showers on the Summits Sunday night through early next week. Additionally, trades will likely remain breezy through this period.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY. Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph late in the night. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY. Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph late in the night. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers. Lows 57 to 68. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY. Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 66 at the shore to around 50 at 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 at the shore to 63 to 69 upcountry. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 54 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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