Small surf should continue around head-high levels along Maui’s north and northwest facing shores today and Friday, possibly still holding on at waist to chest-high levels Saturday. Another small northwest to north-northwest swell is expected to arrive Sunday, but let’s not expect too much. Moderate windswell out of the east-northeast will continue around head-high levels today as well, but it is expected to drop over the next couple of days. This should be a brief decline, however, and another round of short-period windswell is expected to rise to advisory levels once again Sunday into te upcoming week. The jetstream has take on a more zonal west to east-northeasterly pattern which will limit our surf through the forecast period. A minor low is currently crossing the dateline taking aim at the Pacific Northwest. Fetch from this low is not aimed well toward our shores. The resulting swell should arrive overnight Saturday into Sunday at small to low-end moderate levels. The models show another low forming southeast of Kamchatka late in the weekend. A short-lived fetch may produce a northwest swell that would arrive around next Thursday. It’s too early to speculate about wave heights, so check back for updates. The long-range models also hint toward a fetch taking aim out of the Gulf of Alaska early next week which could possibly produce a north to north-northeast swell that would arrive Wednesday or Thursday of next week. More details to come. High pressure north of the islands is expected to build another round of large windswell, so at least there will be some action through the period. Nothing more than tiny background swell and a slight possibility of wrapping windswell will be found along our south facing shores today.
North and northwest facing shores should still see surf in the 3-5 foot range at most exposed breaks, likely a little higher at the best locations. Upper West shores will be smaller at 1-3 foot. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores should be around 4-6 foot and will slowly build into the weekend. South facing shores have no swell to mention and will remain near flat at 0-2 foot.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 1.5 foot at 3:58 AM late last night, dropping to a low of -0.4 foot at 10:21 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 2.3 foot at 5:28 PM late this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.7 foot at 11:43 PM shortly before midnight
The sunrise was at 06:03 am this morning and will set at 06:47 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 17 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 7:53 AM on Tuesday, April 22nd.
The east to east-northeasterly tradewinds will remain rather strong around 15-25 mph today, likely holding at similar or slightly stronger levels through the forecast period.
Sunset: 6:45 PM
Weather Outlook for Thursday
Moderate trade winds continue as high pressure north of the islands remains in place. Winds are expected to increase during the upcoming weekend and into early next week as reinforcing high pressure north of the area develops. Clouds and showers will continue to favor windward and mountain areas. Leeward areas of the Big Island will see increased clouds and showers each afternoon and early evening.
A strong surface ridge remains north of the area and keeping a tradewind weather regime across the islands. In the meantime, water vapor imagery depicts a persisting upper level trough over the area, which may keep enhancing the trade showers especially at night.
Latest model guidance suggest a gradual reduction of pressure gradients during the next couple of days as the high north of the area migrates east and weakens. Thus, trade wind speeds should continue to decrease and remain moderate through the rest of the work week. Then, an even stronger high pressure system seems to build behind the current one and strengthen as it moves north of the islands. This will bring back increasing trades with breezy conditions returning during the upcoming weekend.
In general, expect trade wind showers to continue through the rest of the forecast period with rainfall focusing over windward and mountain areas. Only exception will be the leeward side of the Big Island where afternoon clouds and showers are expected as onshore develops each day.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Sunny, breezy. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 69 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 at the shore to around 66 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 at the shore to around 70 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunny with isolated showers. Windy. Highs around 68 at 7000 feet to around 63 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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