A building west-northwest to northwest swell has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a High Surf Advisory effective only through 6am Saturday morning along Maui’s north shores. However, surf heights will probably not reach levels of more than a few feet overhead here on Maui due to island shadowing, and many breaks will come in much smaller than that. The best surf should be found Saturday morning with higher odds of reaching closer to double-overhead levels early. Some of this energy may filter in to select exposed south shore breaks at waist-chest high levels. This swell should stick around through the weekend while slowly transitioning out of the northwest. Our next round of surf is developing far west-northwest of the state as a low east of Japan slowly churns toward the east. Winds associated with this low are not expected to reach impressive levels and it is forecast to fade while crossing the dateline Monday. The swell should reach Hawai`i Tuesday at small to moderate levels, similar in direction to the current swell. Looking further into the model runs doesn’t offer a lot of hope, so as always, be sure to get your fill while the surf is here.
Today’s Surf Summary
orth and northwest facing shores should rise into the 6-10 foot range today into Saturday, larger as you travel further east of Pa`ia. Upper West shores will be heavily shadowed and will likely remain tiny at only 1-3 foot. Select south facing shores with a more westerly exposure could pull in some fun surf around 3-5+ foot while other breaks stay much smaller with only windswell to offer. East and northeast facing shores won’t offer much at 1-3 foot, although some breaks may pull in wrapping swell, just don’t count on it.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.5 foot at 3:36 AM late last night, dropping to a low of 0.0 foot at 9:56 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 1.9 foot at 3:45 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.1 foot at 9:43 PM late this evening
The sunrise was at 06:50 am this morning and will set at 06:28 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 2 days old, and is in a Waxing Crescent phase. The next First Quarter will occur at 5:15 PM on Wednesday, February 25th.
The winds will be light Friday around 5-15 mph veering from southerlies to northeasterly throughout the day. Moderate easterly tradewinds are expected to develop overnight into the weekend, remaining at moderate to low-end breezy levels throughout the upcoming week.
Sunset: 6:29 PM
Weather Outlook for Friday
A cold front will move eastward across the state today and stall out near the Big Island on Saturday. Weak high pressure will build in north of the area behind the front, allowing for a short period of trade winds Saturday night and Sunday. Another front will approach the state from the west early next week, but likely stall and weaken before reaching Kauai.
Infrared satellite and radar show low clouds and scattered showers associated with a cold front moving across Kauai and Oahu this morning. The boundary looks to be just east of Kauai at this time traveling east at 15 mph. The cloud band has reached Oahu, but the width extends back just west of Kauai. The showers have been light to moderate and moving along through the morning. Soundings from this morning show a saturated atmosphere up to 11000 feet at Lihue with precipitable water value of 1.66 inches which is above average.
The front will continue to move eastward reaching Oahu this morning and Maui county by early afternoon. Southerly winds may become gusty ahead of the front, with downsloping gusts primarily impacting windward sides of the islands. Wind gusts are not expected to be advisory level or reach the threat magnitude of valentine’s day. Showers associated with the front will be mostly light to moderate accumulations. With the front pushing along, showers will not linger over the same locations for very long, thus we do not anticipate a flash flood threat. The front is expected to stall and dissipate out near the Big Island late tonight through the rest of the weekend.
Lighter northwest winds associated with a nearby high pressure system will fill in behind the front. This high will quickly move from northwest of the state today to the northeast of the state by late Saturday. As a result, winds will veer north and then back to moderate trade winds by Saturday evening. As the front stalls and weakens near the Big Island, the trades will carry the remnant clouds and showers back over windward slopes of both the Big Island and Maui. This will bring much needed rain to the windward sides of both islands.
By Sunday, another front will move northwest of Hawaii which will again push the ridge near the Big Island. As a result, east- southeast flow will prevail over the state from Sunday through the middle of next week. Winds will be more easterly near the Big Island, and more southeasterly near Kauai. Both long range GFS and ECMWF weaken this seconds front before it arrives to the islands.
However, models differ with the digging of a shortwave trough near 140Â°W on Tuesday and forming a cold cutoff low. The GFS shows a surface reflection and draws it towards the state by late next week. The ECMWF is much weaker with this feature and places it in a different path. Will continue to monitor future model runs as confidence with either solution is low.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Highs 66 to 79. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 79 at the shore to around 61 at 5000 feet. South winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 at the shore to 51 to 57 upcountry. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 38 at the summit. West winds around 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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