This week should be a rather wild one as the current west-northwest swell slowly fades through the weekend and the approaching Hurricane Ignacio tracks quite closely past Hawai`i, as well as a potentially decent south to south-southeast swell arrives later in the week. West-northwest swell produced by former super-typhoon Atsani has reached the islands and is providing large surf along some of Maui’s west facing shores this weekend, reaching overhead levels at the better breaks. This energy should slowly fade into Monday. Our north facing shores also have a northerly short-period swell providing some fun surf at overhead levels as well, likely holding through Sunday. Low-pressure far northeast of the islands and closer to Oregon aimed a fetch in our direction but the resulting surf will likely stay on the small side when it arrives Sunday into Monday. As of Saturday morning, the majority of surf generated by Hurricane Ignacio will be impacting the Big Island. The forecast models are suggesting that the storm will pass just to the north of the islands and it is expected to provide very large surf and very dangerous conditions through the upcoming week. A lot can change, so please stay tuned to local news and weather services including the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for more up-to-date details. This could potentially be a very dangerous storm, so please use your head before deciding to paddle out. Looking further out, a strong and broad low southeast of New Zealand is aiming a decent south swell in our direction, followed by two weaker but better aimed lows through the middle of next week. The resulting series of south swells should begin to arrive around Wednesday, spaced about two or three days apart. If that isn’t enough for you, Hurricane Jimena is strengthening far east-southeast of the islands and it too is expected to push swell toward the Big Island which would arrive around Wednesday or Thursday. It is unclear at this time how this surf will effect Maui. To broadly summarize – we are in for a lot of surf this week!
Today’s Surf Summary
Select south and west facing shores should see surf in the 3-6+ foot range this weekend but it is on the way down. Some areas may provide much larger sets, so be aware of local conditions before paddling out. North and northwest facing shores may see surf in the 2-4 foot range with the potential for higher sets at the better exposed locations. Upper West shores will likely stay around 0-3 foot due to island shadowing. East and northeast facing shores may see surf in the 2-4 foot range.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 1.9 foot at 1:49 AM late last night, dropping to a low of -0.2 foot at 7:55 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 2.7 foot at 2:37 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.3 foot at 8:55 PM early this evening
The sunrise was at 06:08 am this morning and will set at 06:44 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 15 days old, and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 9:56 AM on Saturday, September 5th.
Northeast to southeast winds of 10-15 mph are expected Saturday across most of the island, but select areas may see gusts in the 30 mph range. Similar windspeeds are expected over the next few days although out of a more northeasterly direction, but Hurricane Ignacio will likely disrupt the tradewinds around the middle of the week.
Sunset: 6:39 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
Very warm and humid conditions will continue despite the return of the trades this weekend. The trades are expected to strengthen to locally strong by Sunday night, by which time tropical storm conditions comes into play. The spotty showers today will be followed by an uptick in trade showers Sunday. The rest of the forecast hinges on the track of hurricane Ignacio with the forecast of uncertainty increasing significantly on Monday and Tuesday.
We welcome back the return of the trades and a slightly more stable and drier air mass. Believe only Oahu and Kauai had a few minor convective showers over on the interior and or leeward parts of the islands yesterday. Showers were hard to find across Maui county and the Big Island yesterday.
A more bearable air mass this early Saturday morning with dew points up to 6 degrees less compared to 24 hours ago. The latest dew point readings statewide ranged from a 67 at Kona to a 74 at Lihue. This translates to lower rh, up to 20 percent less compared to 24 hours ago. It looks like that bubble of lower precipitable water of 1.4 to 1.7 in, noted in the previous discussion, is about gone. So the islands will likely stay about 1.8 to 2.2 range area wide through today. A jucier air mass well above 2 inches should be spreading across the area tonight into Sunday as hurricane Ignacio approaches the islands from the east and southeast.
Satellite and radar shows a group of scattered showers upwind of Kauai. So it appears windward Kauai have a few passing showers this morning. It is rather dry elsewhere with isolated showers at best for at least this morning.
The forecast from Sunday night on, hinges on the track of Ignacio with the forecast of uncertainty increasing significantly on Monday and Tuesday. Please see the latest discussion issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for specifics related to the track and intensity, issued under AWIPS header TCDCP3 and WMO header WTPA43 PHFO.
Given the latest track of Ignacio, the winds should start diminishing around the islands as early as late Tuesday night, and the winds easing to a warm and muggy south direction by Thursday. Under this wind flow, not only will it be muggy but could also be voggy and also showery. Vog, haze is questionable at this time. The haze was not much of an issue a few days ago while the smaller islands were under a light southerly flow.
The cone of uncertainty, which is the potential track given historic track error, includes the entire state. If Ignacio shifts to the right, we could see light winds, more humid conditions, and localized heavy rain. On a more leftward track closer to the islands, we could see stronger/damaging winds and more widespread heavy rain/flooding. Everyone should continue to monitor the progress of Ignacio during the next several days.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 76 at the shore to around 54 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Lows around 71 at the shore to 53 to 58 upcountry. Light winds.
Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 55 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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