Flood Advisory

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM HST FOR THE ISLAND OF MAUI IN MAUI COUNTY... At 210 PM HST...radar indicated heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms moving over Maui from the southwest, with especially heavy rainfall affecting the area from Olowalu to Kihei to Makena to Kaupo. Rainfall rates up to two inches per hour can be expected in

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High Surf Advisory

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES... .A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING... * SURF...5 TO 8 FEET ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.

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Flash Flood Watch

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OAHU MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Kahoolawe, Lanai, Maui, Molokai, Oahu and the Big Island. * Through Sunday afternoon. * A front will stall over the central islands at the same time as

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4-6 foot
0-3 foot
1-4+ foot
1-4 foot


Surf along north facing shores, especially on Kauai and Oahu, has been increasing somewhat from a short-period, choppy swell associated with stronger winds that have been occurring behind the front, but it has remained below advisory conditions. A series of small, longer-period northwest swells are expected next week, and also expected to remain below advisory levels.

A series of long-period south swells will affect the south facing shores into next week. The first of these swells will continue to bring advisory level surf (8 ft) to exposed south facing shores through today. A High Surf Advisory has been posted for these areas. A reinforcing south swell will fill in Monday and Tuesday, and keep surf borderline for advisory conditions.

With a front and upper trough in the area, the chance for thunderstorms over the coastal waters will persist through Saturday and beyond.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Hawaii Swell Period Model
Hawaii Swell Height Model


Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 1.3 foot at 3:37 AM late last night, dropping to a low of -0.4 foot at 10:03 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 2.4 foot at 5:31 PM late this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 05:54 am this morning and will set at 06:51 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 4 days old, and is in a Waxing Crescent phase. The next First Quarter will occur at 2:48 AM on Wednesday, May 3rd.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

68°/°
Wind: N at 8 mph
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 6:50 PM
current observations as of 2pm April 29th, 2017

Weather Outlook for Saturday

Unsettled weather will impact the island chain this weekend into early next week, as a front stalls out in the vicinity of Maui County and a potent low aloft pivots southward across the western end of the island chain. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected in association with these features, with the most unsettled weather expected across the central and eastern islands. A return to a more typical trade wind weather pattern is then expected by the middle of next week.

Currently at the surface, a 1009 mb low is located around 550 miles north of Kahului, with a trough extending southward through Maui County. Meanwhile, a front is pushing through the eastern end of Oahu, to the west of the surface trough. Aloft, broad upper level troughing dominates the synoptic pattern over the central Pacific, with a deep upper level low located around 450 miles north of Honolulu, with the trough axis extending southward and over the island chain. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies in place from Kauai eastward to Maui, with more scattered cloud cover present over the Big Island. Meanwhile, radar imagery shows showers scattered about across the island chain, with the main focus around Oahu and Maui County. Main short term concern revolves around the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding across the central and eastern islands through the weekend.

Today through Monday night, Model solutions are in good agreement showing the front and surface trough consolidating over Maui County today, then remaining nearly stationary through Sunday before slowly dissipating heading into early next week. Meanwhile aloft, a deep upper level low will shift southward toward Kauai today and move over Kauai by late tonight or early Sunday morning. The upper low will then pivot off to the south of Kauai during the day on Sunday before stalling out around 200 miles south of Kauai Sunday night through Monday night. The deepest moisture is progged to remain over Maui County through the period, but it will remain very close to both Oahu and the Big Island. Shower activity appears to be more limited across Kauai where dry surface dewpoint air (dewpoints in the mid 50s) will remain in place through the weekend. That said, with the core of the upper level low moving over Kauai, the instability aloft will likely be enough to produce some scattered showers, the coverage should just be reduced in comparison to the other islands however.

The potential remains for a significant hydrology event over the weekend, particularly across Maui County, with the heaviest rainfall appearing to focus over the area late this afternoon through Sunday when the best forcing for ascent will be in place. In addition, the instability provided by the upper level low will keep thunderstorms a possibility across most of the state through the period, with the best chances for thunder expected across Maui County and Big Island. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Oahu eastward to the Big Island through Sunday, with the highest probabilities for flooding rains expected over Maui County at this time.

Additionally, the proximity of the deep moisture to the Big Island and the instability aloft may result in wintry conditions over the Big Island summits. The deepest moisture axis should remain west of the Big Island today, so confidence in widespread heavy snow on the summits is not high enough to warrant upgrading the watch to a warning at this time. The potential still remains for the deeper moisture to impact the Big Island tonight and Sunday, so will push the Winter Storm Watch back 12 hours, with it now running from 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday. Windy conditions have already developed over the Big Island summits early this morning, and are currently running just above advisory levels. With the upper level low dropping down toward the western end of the state through the day, winds are expected to increase to High Wind Warning levels by late this afternoon. As a result, will issue a High Wind Warning for the Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa summits beginning this morning and running through late Sunday night.

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue Sunday night through Monday night as the upper level low remains just to the south of the islands and the lingering moisture from the dissipating surface trough remains over the island chain. Due to the continued instability, thunderstorms will need to remain in the forecast in most areas, and the Flash Flood Watch may eventually need to be extended into early next week for portions of the state.

Tuesday through next Friday, Model solutions differ on how quickly the unsettled pattern will exit the region, with the GFS slower than the ECMWF moving the deeper moisture and lingering instability to the south and west of the island chain. Overall however, they both suggest that the upper level low to the south of Kauai will begin to weaken and open up on Tuesday in response to ridging aloft building in from the west. This should have a stabilizing effect on the weather over the islands, with a return to more of a typical trade wind pattern expected for the middle and latter part of next week.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 78 to 84. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming light late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Cloudy. Frequent showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Cloudy. Frequent showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 60 to 79. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 76 at the shore to around 62 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 83 at the shore to 64 to 70 upcountry. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Haleakala Summit

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Cloudy and breezy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 53 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Southwest winds around 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Photo of the Day

Surf Photo of the Day - April 29th, 2017

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