The National Weather Service has issued a High Surf Warning effective until 6pm Saturday for Maui’s north facing shores due to a fading large west-northwest to northwest swell being reinforced Friday night and into Saturday. This large swell will continue to bring high surf across north, west, and even some south facing shores through the weekend. While surf could be a slightly lower today, a reinforcing northwest swell will arrive tonight will keep surf heights along north and west shores at warning levels through Saturday. The westerly component of this swell will allow some energy to reach select areas along some south shore breaks for which an advisory is in effect. The swell will remain large and keep surf elevated through the weekend. Winds will remain light to low-end moderate offering decent conditions. This energy may sneak into some exposed south shore breaks and a High Surf Advisory has been issued for Maui’s west shores to be safe, but island shadowing will be significant.
Today’s Surf Summary
North and northwest facing shores will be in the 10-15++ foot range today, varying in size from overhead to exceeding triple-overhead at some of the outer breaks. Upper West shores will be blocked by Moloka`i and will likely not offer anything over 1-4 foot, but select breaks may pull in wrapping surf if we’re lucky. Select south shores may see westerly swell in the 4-7+ foot range while other breaks stay closer to flat. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores will be minimal, but wrapping surf could offer surf in the 1-4+ foot range, potentially higher at the best locations.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.6 foot at 4:41 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.3 foot at 11:15 AM shortly before noon, then rising to a high of 1.5 foot at 4:41 PM late this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.1 foot at 10:30 PM late this evening
The sunrise was at 07:03 am this morning and will set at 06:12 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 4 days old, and is in a Waxing Crescent phase. The next First Quarter will occur at 4:49 AM on Tuesday, January 27th.
Light to low-end moderate southerly winds in the 5-15 mph range should be expected across most of the island today but an increase in the tradewinds is expected over the weekend which could raise wind speeds into the moderate to breezy range through Monday before dropping in strength again throughout much of the upcoming week.
Sunset: 6:12 PM
Weather Outlook for Friday
A front will move across Kauai today, Oahu late in the day, and Maui county Friday evening. Clouds and scattered showers will accompany this front. The front will then stall and weaken over the weekend while northeasterly winds focus the remaining clouds and showers across windward Big Island and Maui. High pressure will move in behind the front and bring a drier airmass that will last into the middle of next week.
A cold front is located just to the northwest of Kauai this morning and is expected to track southeast across the Garden Isle today, then over Oahu late in the day and tonight, then Maui county tonight. The front is expected to weaken and dissipate near Maui and the Big Island over the weekend. The upper level dynamics associated with this system will remain to the north of Hawaii which means we expect to see associated low level clouds and scattered light to moderate showers. We do not anticipate any heavy rain, flooding or thunderstorms.
Shortwave infrared satellite shows a 150 mile wide band of clouds associated with the front just about to move onto Kauai in the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal convergence area is bringing clouds and showers across Maui county, and to a lesser extent, Oahu and Big Island. These showers will likely linger through the late morning and begin to taper off and shift east today.
Moderate to fresh southwest winds are expected out ahead of the front, already reaching Kauai and Oahu this morning and will move into Maui county today. Winds will veer west to northwest behind the front with drier and cooler air moving in.
The front is expect to weak and stall out near Maui and Big Island tonight and Saturday. Winds will shift northerly, then to trade winds by Sunday and direct the leftover frontal moisture over the windward and mauka areas of Maui and the Big Island Sunday and Monday. A dry and stable airmass will slide in behind the front. Look for the drier air to reach Kauai and Oahu by as early as Saturday.
Winds will shift easterly on Tuesday as the subtropical high moves back to a position northeast of the state. A relatively dry trade wind weather pattern will persist over the next couple of days. Another front is expected to approach Kauai from the northwest on Thursday.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 61 to 66. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY. Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 73 to 83. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 81 at the shore to around 69 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY. Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 83 at the shore to around 71 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 44 to 52. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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