The National Weather Service has issued a High Surf Advisory for Maui’s north shores effective through 6am Sunday morning. Surf heights will reach into the 10-15 foot range through the day today peaking Sunday around triple-overhead levels or higher at select breaks, possibly triggering a high surf warning. Continuing south-southwesterly swell will decrease along our south shores although some areas may still pull in waist-high or below sets from time to time. Leftover north-northeasterly windswell will still be found along windward shores as well as strong onshore winds whip up large and sloppy surf. Another round of large northwest swell is expected to arrive Tuesday into Wednesday around similar levels as the current swell. The new long-period northwest swell was generated earlier this week by a very powerful storm packing hurricane-force winds near the Kuril Islands. A long-lived fetch was aimed in our direction over several days and is just now leaving our swell window. The resulting swell will last for several days reaching near extra-large levels at its peak. Another low developed closer to Japan and is currently approaching the international dateline Saturday on an east to east-northeasterly track. The resulting swell will reach Hawaii overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, likely reaching similar levels as the current swell this weekend. The long-range models continue to forecast another low developing near the Kuril Islands around mid-week with the potential to produce an even larger swell for the weekend, quite likely to exceed warning levels.
North and northwest facing shores should be in the 10-15+ foot range with larger sets likely at the better locations. Upper West shores will likely be in the 8-12+ foot range. Windswell along east and northeasterly shores should still be around 4-6+ foot or higher in select areas. South facing shores will be mostly flat but some areas may still pull in weak sets around 1-3 foot, just don’t count on it. Plenty surf is expected along the north shores throughout the week.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.7 foot at 4:23 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.9 foot at 11:01 AM shortly before noon, then rising to a high of 1.4 foot at 3:15 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.2 foot at 9:34 PM late this evening
The sunrise was at 06:43 am this morning and will set at 05:44 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 18 days old, and is in a Waning Gibbous phase. The next Last Quarter will occur at 7:42 AM on Thursday, December 3rd.
Northeasterly tradewinds will be in the 15 to 25 mph across much of the island with gusts reaching over 30 mph in some areas. A slow decline is expected over the next few days, but wind speeds are forecast to increase to breezy levels again around mid-week.
Sunset: 5:43 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
The start of a drier trade wind pattern is on tap for this afternoon, and is expected to last through most if not all of the upcoming week. Breezy, locally gusty conditions will persist through Sunday before easing off slightly between Sunday night and Tuesday. Even lighter trades are expected over the second half of next week as a front threatens the islands. These trade showers will be favoring the windward and mountain areas, with a few of the showers drifting into the leeward areas of the smaller islands.
One more batch of showers to deal with before the start of a drier trade wind regime. So far this batch of showers has reached Maui but appears to be struggling further westward. The ECMWF and GFS models are hinting that this shower area to dissipate over Maui and the Big Island this morning. Mid level ridging will settling over the islands this morning, aiding in this drier and stable environment. It is forecast to stick around the islands through the new work week. Kauai is still getting a good bit of trade showers this early Saturday morning, but satellite shows a thinning out of the low cloud field upwind of the island. So, we are anticipating a drier sunrise there. Under this trade wind regime, the showers will increase during the overnight and early morning hours, and be rather dry by mid-morning or the afternoon hours.
Breezy trade winds should last another day or so as a tight pressure gradient remains over the islands. The models are pointing to a slightly stronger and stiffer trade wind flow today and tonight. So the winds for these 2 periods have been beefed up, especially in the windier areas of the Big Island such as the Waimea saddle and parts of the Puna district. These winds have the potential of reaching wind advisory criteria which is sustained winds of 30 mph at the lower elevations. So we will be monitoring the situation closely. This gradient should start relaxing about Sunday with trades lowering to moderate to locally strong by Tuesday. The trades may rebound briefly to locally strong about Wednesday as a 1025 mb high pressure system passes due north of the islands. This high scoots off to the east rather fast where the trades will fall off to light to moderate speeds by Friday night. This is due to a dissipating cold front approaching the islands from the northwest.
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough about to move through the central islands from the north.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs 67 to 82. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 at the shore to around 68 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Lows around 70 at the shore to around 57 upcountry. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Breezy. Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows around 52 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
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