A new south-southwest swell should be on the rise today but it may be a bit slow building in. Wave heights should be in the chest to shoulder-high range at the better locations, perhaps a little higher at the best breaks. This energy should continue through the week, offering plenty surf along our summer shores. Short-period windswell out of the east-northeast should keep surf along the windward shores around chest to head-high levels. Rising easterly swell from Hurricane Marie is expected to arrive Thursday, potentially rising above advisory levels. Another larger south-southwest swell is anticipated to arrive overnight Wednesday into Thursday, most likely building above advisory levels. The combination of all of this swell should keep plenty action well into the holiday weekend. Hurricane Marie reached category 5 strength Sunday as she tracks toward the northwest and slowly decreases in power. A large swell was generated and should provide us with above advisory level surf peaking around Friday with a slow fade into the weekend. A severe gale near New Zealand last Monday and Tuesday produced the current swell which should peak around moderate levels Thursday. Another broad low far east of New Zealand pushed yet another south swell toward our summer shores, combining with additional south-southwest swell pushing up the Tasman Sea. This combination should keep our south shores at moderate to near high levels through Friday and into the weekend. Enjoy.
Today’s Surf Summary
South facing shores should be in the 4-6+ foot with a slow rise into Thursday expected. Rising windswell along the east and northeast facing shores should build into the 4-6 foot range. North and northwest facing shores are essentially flat at 0-3 foot but select breaks should pull in larger windswell near head-high levels. Upper West shores will stay near flat at 0-2 foot.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 1.9 foot at 4:10 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.3 foot at 10:07 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 2.3 foot at 4:28 PM late this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.3 foot at 10:47 PM late this evening
The sunrise was at 06:07 am this morning and will set at 06:47 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 1 days old, and is in a Waxing Crescent phase. The next First Quarter will occur at 11:11 AM on Tuesday, September 2nd.
Moderate northeasterly tradewinds will continue around 10-20 mph today and through Wednesday before dropping to lighter levels over the second half of the week. Moderate winds will return over the holiday weekend.
Sunset: 6:45 PM
Weather Outlook for Wednesday
Trade winds will gradually weaken over the next couple days, and will be light from Friday through the weekend. One more batch of moisture will enhance trade wind showers tonight, then conditions will dry out briefly beginning Wednesday afternoon. Another increase in showers and unstable conditions is possible by Saturday. With weaker trade winds, localized land and sea breezes will be more common.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low several hundred miles west-northwest of Kauai, with a longwave ridge near/just east of the Big Island. At the surface, high pressure is located far northeast of the state, and a low is located far to the east-northeast. 00Z soundings show weak inversions near 7-8kft, with both profiles showing continued mid-level warming. Precipitable waters range from 1.18 inches in Lihue to 1.35 inches in Hilo. Early afternoon mimic total precipitable water imagery shows another pocket of moisture with PW values up to 1.5 inches within 200 miles northeast and east of the state, with much drier air farther upstream.
Even though the Lihue sounding is drier than Hilo, both have only 2-3C dewpoint depressions below the inversion. Forecast soundings/cross sections show moisture depth decreasing wednesday/wednesday night, and remaining relatively low through the rest of the week. Trade winds will gradually diminish, but will be strong enough to keep clouds and showers focused primarily across windward sections for the next day or two. After one more showery period tonight, rainfall chances will return to more normal values by Wednesday night.
The low currently far east-northeast of the state, which is the remnant circulation of former Lowell, will track northwest for the next several days. By late in the week, this low will pass between us and the subtropical high. It will be far enough away that we will not see any direct impacts, but it will interrupt the trades and weaken the gradient across the islands. Light easterly winds will continue for friday/saturday, which will allow for locally driven land and sea breezes. This type of pattern usually leads to interior clouds and showers during the afternoons and evenings with clearing at night. Localized sea breezes may develop as early as Thursday.
By early next week the low passes farther northwest, and a new surface ridge builds in north of the state behind it. Trades will gradually return to moderate levels from Sunday into Monday, with rainfall returning to a more typical windward and mauka distribution.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 71 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 at the shore to around 70 at 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88 at the shore to around 70 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at 7000 feet to around 56 at the summit. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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