High Surf Warning

...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND... .A LARGE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE TONIGHT. THE SURF WILL LIKELY DROP TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY.

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8-12+ foot
5-8+ foot
0-3 foot
3-5 foot

The north-northwest swell at Buoys 51101/51000 is running close to Wavewatch guidance currently, and is still forecast to peak later today around the islands. This swell will produce warning-level surf for north and some west facing shores of most smaller islands, before subsiding on Monday. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for today and tonight for those areas. North facing shores of the Big Island will be under a High Surf Advisory for today and tonight. Warning-level impacts are not expected on the Big Island due to the 330-340 swell direction, and the peak of the event occurring closer to low tide. Tidal impacts are not expected to be an issue as the predicted astronomical tides are lower than with the last event.

Seas will build rapidly above 10 feet this morning as the next north-northwest swell fills in. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most of the coastal waters through tonight. Seas should subside below 10 feet again on Monday, but build quickly once again late Tuesday into Wednesday, as another even larger north-northwest swell arrives.

Another even larger north-northwest swell is forecast to arrive Tuesday afternoon, peaking Tuesday night into Wednesday. This swell is expected to produce warning-level surf on north and west facing shores.

A weak cold front should stall near Maui later today. North-northeast winds have increased somewhat behind the front, but based on available land-based observations during the night it appears likely that these winds will remain below 25 knots. Winds will quickly veer around to the east and weaken later today, then veer to the southeast tonight as the dissipating front lifts back to the north. Gentle to moderate S/SW winds are forecast Monday into Tuesday as another, stronger front approaches. This front is currently forecast to move down the island chain Tuesday through Wednesday morning, with winds shifting to north and increasing behind the front. N/NE winds will likely reach SCA levels across most areas from Wednesday night or Thursday through Friday.

Hawaii Wave Height Model

Tide Predictions

Low tide at Kahului was 0.8 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, rising to a high of 2.0 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then dropping to a low of 0.5 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.3 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon

The sunrise was at 06:51 am this morning and will set at 05:47 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 22 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 6:31 AM on Monday, December 18th.

Hawaii Wind Report

Maui Weather

65°/°
Wind: SSE at 6 mph
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:45 PM
current observations as of 2am December 11th, 2017

Weather Outlook for Sunday, 10th December 2017

Summary

A weak cold front will stall and dissipate over the central islands today. Winds will quickly shift out of the east by tonight, then out of the south on Monday ahead of a stronger front, which is expected to cross the state Tuesday through Wednesday. Breezy north winds will fill in behind the front Wednesday through Thursday, with unsettled weather possible Thursday night into the upcoming weekend as an upper low develops and drifts over the area.

Detailed Discussion

Satellite imagery and observations showed a weak cold front moving into Maui County with the bulk of its moisture remaining confined from the surface to 8 KFT. Radar imagery showed a narrow band of scattered, mainly light, showers along and ahead of it impacting windward Oahu and portions of Maui County. The latest rainfall summary depicted peak accumulations associated with this activity across Kauai and Oahu up to half of an inch through the overnight hours. Expect similar amounts over Maui County today as the boundary stalls and weakens.

Although there is a significant amount of dry air behind the front (MIMIC TPW values of 0.5-0.7 inches), it won’t make much southward progress across the islands today through Monday. The trailing high will quickly pass north of the state today, with its surface ridge expected to shift southward over us tonight/Monday. The weak gradient will lead to another period of locally-driven land and sea breezes tonight into Monday, as the low-level background flow quickly veers from the east tonight to the south and southwest Monday.

For the extended (Monday night-weekend) period, decent agreement is now shown between the ECMWF and GFS solutions through much of the week. They depict a second, stronger, cold front reaching Kauai late Monday night into Tuesday, then clearing the Big Island Wednesday through Wednesday night. A deeper source of moisture along and ahead of this boundary is shown with model PWs climbing above normal (1.5-1.7″). This moisture combined with upper height falls and isentropic lift will translate to better rainfall coverage across the state, especially along and ahead of the boundary as is advances down the island chain. Guidance suggests this boundary pushing east of the state with another shot of cool and dry air filling in (PWs down toward half of an inch; dewpoints back into the mid 50s) beginning Tuesday night. Winds will shift out of the north-northeast and become breezy Wednesday through Thursday.

Although forecast uncertainty begins to increase through the second half of the week and into next weekend, the GFS and ECMWF both continue to depict a cutoff low developing near or just east of the islands by Thursday. This upper feature and a broad surface trough associated with the old frontal boundary that pushed through the islands Wednesday are forecast to slowly drift westward into the area, which could translate to a more unsettled pattern across the islands going into next weekend. Despite the model differences (ECMWF more aggressive solution) shown, this package will introduce an upward trend in rainfall chances Thursday night through Saturday.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 59 to 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 62 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 79 at the shore to around 65 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62 at the shore to around 50 upcountry. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

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