The National Weather Service has issued a High Surf Advisory for Maui’s north shores effective through 6am Sunday morning due to a large northwest swell building over the weekend. It may take a little time for the swell to swing far enough out of the northwest rather than west-northwest, so don’t be surprised if we have to wait until Saturday for any decent sized sets to fill in. Thankfully, leftover swell will keep wave heights in the overhead to well overhead range at many of our north shore breaks while we wait. This new swell is expected to rise to double-overhead levels Saturday with a slow fade through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Swell production west of the dateline will be minimal this week due to a ridge of high pressure near Kamchatka, so get what you can while it’s here this weekend. A low developing north of the islands this weekend should be able to produce a northerly swell that would arrive Tuesday, but we’ll have to keep our fingers crossed for that one. Not much else is expected through the forecast period.
Today’s Surf Summary
North and northwest facing shores should see surf in the 6-10++ foot range today and Saturday, dropping to small to moderate levels by Sunday. Upper West shores won’t see much surf Friday at only 1-4+ foot but as the swell swings further out of the northwest to north this weekend, we should see rising surf at the better locations. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores will be minimal at 1-3+ foot although select breaks could pull in wrapping northwest swell. South facing shores will stay mostly flat at 0-3 foot.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.2 foot at 12:52 AM just after midnight, dropping to a low of 0.9 foot at 7:38 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 1.1 foot at 11:18 AM shortly before noon, before once again dropping to a low of -0.1 foot at 5:52 PM late this afternoon
The sunrise was at 07:01 am this morning and will set at 06:16 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 11 days old, and is in a Waxing Gibbous phase. The next Full Moon will occur at 11:10 PM on Tuesday, February 3rd.
Light and variable southwest winds of 0-10 mph are expected Friday morning, becoming more northerly later in the day before strengthening a bit further out of a more northeasterly direction Saturday. Stronger tradewinds are forecast to return near the middle of the upcoming week.
Sunset: 6:16 PM
Weather Outlook for Friday
Clouds and showers along a weakening front will affect the smaller islands this morning and spread to the Big Island later today. A ridge building northeast of the area will produce gentle trade winds through the weekend with scattered windward showers and dry weather over leeward areas. A large area of low pressure north of the area will bring west winds and unsettled weather starting Monday night and extending through the coming week.
A northeast to southwest cloud band associated with a dissipating front will bring cloudy skies and showers to the islands today. Showers could be briefly heavy this morning, .but since the showers will be moving by rather quickly rainfall totals will be modest. A ridge will build northeast of the area tonight and produce gentle trade winds through the weekend. The trades will bring scattered showers to windward areas while leeward areas will be mostly dry.
A huge area of low pressure in the north Pacific will sag south early next week. Winds will shift out of the south on Monday, then veer out of the west on Tuesday. The westerly flow will push a series of frontal bands over the islands through next week. These frontal band will likely keep the islands rather cloudy and showery through the week. Strong winds are likely for the higher elevations and the winds could become strong over the lower elevations by late next week. The global models have been somewhat inconsistent with this complicated pattern, so details on the timing and strength of the frontal bands remain uncertain.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY. Sunny. Highs around 79. Light winds becoming north 10 to 15 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 69. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY. Sunny. Highs 70 to 79. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY. Sunny. Highs around 77 at the shore to around 66 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 63 at the shore to around 47 at 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph early in the evening becoming light, then becoming east around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 45 at 7000 feet to around 41 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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