Choppy surf from waves already built by the winds will continue to affect east-facing shores, but heights should remain below the criteria for a high surf advisory as they decline. Small background swells from the south and northwest will produce small surf through the weekend. The forecast models are predicting a compact but strong storm developing far southeast of Kamchatka Sunday evening, and if all goes well it will produce a decent northwest swell that would arrive on Wednesday.. Wave heighs should build surf near or potentially above advisory levels, then lowering on Thursday into Friday. Looking to the southern hemisphere, a fetch is developing near Tasmania that will push a southwest swell in our direction. This energy should reach Hawai`i around next weekend, but this swell direction is heavily shadowed here on Maui, so don’t expect too much. Looking further out, the area southeast and east of New Zealand should provide a better chance for surf development around mid-week, bringing the possibility for a south swell arriving about a week later.
Today’s Surf Summary
Small to near moderate windswell should still be found along east and northeast facing shores over the weekend around 2-5 foot, wrapping to select north shore breaks. North and northwest facing shores should stay rather tiny at only 1-4 foot. Upper West shores will come in mostly flat at 0-2 foot. South facing shores may see fading surf around 1-4 foot.
Wind and Tide Information
Low tide at Kahului was 0.2 foot at 12:44 PM just after noon, rising to a high of 1.9 foot at 9:25 PM late this evening, then dropping to a of foot at just after midnight, before once again of foot at just after midnight
The sunrise was at 06:08 am this morning and will set at 06:44 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 22 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 6:59 PM on Saturday, April 18th.
Moderate easterly tradewinds will continue aroudn 10-20 mph today with gusts up to 30 mph possible in some areas. The winds are expected to increase a little throughout the week, reaching strong levels by the weekend.
Sunset: 6:45 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
Moderate to locally strong trade winds will diminish gradually into next week. Showers will be limited mainly to windward slopes of most islands all day, and lee slopes of the Big Island each afternoon and evening. Clouds and rain in these places will peak Sunday night, before diminishing by the middle of next week.
Surface observations around the main Hawaiian islands reported gradually diminishing trade winds. Cloud cover and precipitation across the state consisted mainly of showery marine cumuli and stratocumuli moving ashore along east slopes, though cirrus cover from the ITCZ will reach at least the Big Island today.
Gradients in humidity and inversion height tightened overnight between Lihue and Hilo. Satellite estimates of precipitable water upwind suggested that the moister air mass near the Big Island continued upwind far enough to continue the current trend at least through the weekend.
Aloft, the situation also was complex. A huge ridge prevailed over and north of the islands. Within this ridge, a deeply stacked low lingered near the dateline, while shallow troughing undercut the ridge from the east. The difference between this shallow troughing on the one hand, and the more solid ridge further north on the other, partly explained the height gradient in the local inversion.
Gradual changes aloft into early next week will weaken the ridge to the north, while slightly sharpening the trough extending over the islands from the east, and therefore also increasing uplift across the state. On the other hand, reduced subsidence to the north will weaken the surface high, eventually also reducing the trade winds and orographic forcing. Some solutions actually increased wind speeds around Monday, but this boost should be short-lived if it occurs at all. In any case, the net result will continue to favor windward and upslope showers.
Regression to the mean will bring more typical light to moderate trade-wind conditions from the middle of next week.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening,then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 57 to 69. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph early in the evening. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Cloudy with frequent showers. Lows around 68 at the shore to around 52 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 67 at the shore to 51 to 56 upcountry. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Clear and breezy. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph.
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