Weak north-northwest swell continues to fade with leftovers only expected in the waist-high range along our north shores. A new west-northwest swell will pass through the islands later in the day Sunday into Monday, peaking near double-overhead levels if we’re lucky, but as with all swells from this direction much of this energy will be blocked by our neighbor islands. This energy will slowly clock to a more northwesterly direction as it fades through Tuesday, opening up more breaks along the north shores. Tiny south-southwest swell will fade away this weekend as a new but small south-southeast swell continues around waist-high levels at the better locations while most other locations come in closer to flat. Select areas may pick up wrapping windswell as well. The long-range outlook isn’t looking all too promising with only a minor pulse of northwest swell forecast to arrive around Friday. The South Pacific is starting to come alive but still nothing is aimed well toward Hawai`i. Pray for surf!
Today’s Surf Summary
North and northwest facing shores should be in the 2-4 foot range Saturday, with potentially higher sets from time to time in select areas. Wave heights should rise to well overhead levels Sunday. Upper West shores will likely come in rather small around 1-3 foot. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores will also be around 2-4 foot. South facing shores may also see surf in the 2-4 foot as well, potentially higher in select areas. Sunday should offer much better surf.
Wind and Tide Information
Low tide at Kahului was 0.7 foot at 6:42 AM early this morning, rising to a high of 0.8 foot at 10:27 AM this morning, then dropping to a low of 0.4 foot at 4:04 PM late this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.8 foot at 11:42 PM shortly before midnight
The sunrise was at 06:20 am this morning and will set at 06:40 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 9 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 12:07 PM on Saturday, April 4th.
Moderate easterly tradewinds will reach into the 10-15 mph range across most of the island although some areas may reach slightly higher speeds. This pattern should persist through Monday with a slight decrease expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Wind speeds should return to moderate levels again throguh the remainder of the forecast period.
Sunset: 6:40 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue over the weekend and early next week, before diminishing Tuesday. Mostly dry weather will continue for most of the weekend, with a slight increase in windward showers expected late Sunday and Monday, especially on Kauai and Oahu. A disturbance passing north of the islands on Tuesday will weaken the trade winds, and may briefly lead to increased windward showers. The disturbance will move east of the area on Wednesday and Thursday, with typical trade wind weather expected through the end of next week.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are being supplied by a 1031 mb surface high far northeast of the islands, and an associated ridge about 500 miles north of Maui. A ridge aloft keeps our airmass stable, and a mostly dry trade wind weather pattern is in place over the islands. Very little rainfall has been observed overnight, but satellite loop and radar shows an area of broken low clouds moving into Maui and the Big Island within easterly trade flow this morning. We expect a slight moistening of trade flow this morning to allow for a few windward showers, but they are expected to be brief and light.
A mostly dry trade wind weather pattern is expected through most of the weekend as a mid level ridge remains overhead. Trade winds will gradually diminish as the surface ridge north of the islands retreats eastward. A new high building northwest of the area on Sunday will push remnant frontal moisture toward the islands from the north on Sunday and Monday. Although this moisture is not expected to make it as far south as the islands, weakly convergent low level flow will lead to increased trade wind showers, mainly over Kauai and Oahu, from late Sunday into Monday. The atmosphere will continue to be relatively stable so these showers are not expected to be heavy.
The trade wind flow could be disrupted around Tuesday as a mid-level trough passes north of the islands and induces the formation of a surface trough near the islands. However, models disagree on the strength of the trough. Either way, trades could be light enough on Tuesday for sea breezes to drive afternoon leeward cloud formation.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 67. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 56 to 68. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 65 at the shore to around 52 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Lows around 66 at the shore to around 52 upcountry. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly clear. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds around 15 mph.
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