The National Weather Service has issued a High Surf Advisory for Maui’s south facing shores effective through 6am Monday morning due to a pair of large south swells arriving over the weekend. The first of these swells will continue to build through Saturday, peaking sometime overnight into Sunday. We should see surf near head-high levels this morning with a rise to several feet overhead at the better exposed breaks. The best breaks may pull in larger sets from time to time if you know where to look. The second swell is expected to arrive Monday, reinforcing the then fading first swell around similar heights. Wave heights should remain elevated along south facing shores through early next week. A tiny to small east-northeast swell may offer weak short-period surf along the windward shores, but don’t expect anything good. This series of south swells was generated by a strong storm near New Zealand last weekend that aimed a significant long fetch in our direction over several days. Another low developed southeast of New Zealand last Sunday, tracking toward the northeast and eventually merging with the first storm. We should continue to see surf through Wednesday. There isn’t much action after this event, so get it while it’s here.
Today’s Surf Summary
South facing shores will rise into the 4-8+ foot range with the potential for some breaks to reach near double-overhead levels while other less exposed breaks stay small. East and northeast facing shores will remain tiny to small at 1-3 foot. North and northwest facing shoreswill also come in near flat at 1-3 foot. Select Upper West breaks may pull in wrapping south swell but will most likely stay near flat at 0-2 foot.
Wind and Tide Information
Low tide at Kahului was 0.3 foot at 3:25 AM late last night, rising to a high of 1.8 foot at 11:45 AM shortly before noon, then dropping to a low of 1.3 foot at 6:07 PM early this evening, before once again rising to a high of 1.3 foot at 8:19 PM early this evening
The sunrise was at 05:56 am this morning and will set at 07:08 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 9 days old, and is in a Waxing Gibbous phase. The next Full Moon will occur at 10:45 AM on Friday, July 31st.
The east to southeasterly winds will remain mostly light around 5-15 mph this weekend although gust of 25 mph or more are likely at the higher elevations
Sunset: 7:04 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
The trades will decrease today and through Sunday as the remnants of former tropical cyclone Enrique move to the north of the islands. This will result in generally warm and humid conditions, with sea breezes bringing some afternoon showers over interior and leeward areas. During the nights, trades should remain strong enough to keep a few showers across windward areas, especially over the Big Island. A more typical trade wind weather pattern is expected to return by the middle of next week.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level ridge located across the E half of the island chain, and an upper level low centered far west-northwest of the aloha state. At the surface, a surface high remains centered far north of the islands. The trade wind pattern generated by this high will be interrupted through the rest of the weekend as a weak surface trough and an area of enhanced moisture, both associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Enrique, move to the north of the main Hawaiian islands.
Weakening tradewinds should allow for sea breezes to develop this afternoon and possibly again on Sunday. However, the trades should not drop completely, especially over windward areas. Thus, the afternoon/early evening pattern this weekend may become a hybrid with weak trades keeping clouds and showers over windward and mountain areas, while some leeward/interior areas of the smaller islands could experience cloud buildups and localized showers as sea breezes push inland.
Models show the upper level ridge over the islands weakening and migrating west during the next couple of days, while the low west-northwest of the islands gradually dissipates. The remnants of Enrique will bring deeper moisture just north of the state for the Sunday-Monday time frame, with model solutions suggesting potential for some localized heavy showers early next week, especially during the afternoon hours.
Tuesday should be a transition day as the remnants of Enrique migrate to the northwest of the main Hawaiian islands with sea breezes still possible in the afternoon. By Wednesday, the trough finally moves away from the area and allows for a more typical trade wind weather pattern to return.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 57 to 69. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 67 at the shore to around 54 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 91 at the shore to 71 to 78 upcountry. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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