Fading surf should be expected along our north and northwest facing shores today as leftovers from a large north-northwest swell passes through the islands. Some larger sets are still possible from time to time at the better exposed breaks, but most breaks will drop into the head-high or slightly higher range. There is still a little bit of south swell passing through, but don’t expect much more than thigh-high sets at the best south shore locations, if anything is left at all. Our next chance for surf won’t come until late Friday into Saturday, thanks to a broad low still developing near the dateline today. The largest surf from this low is being aimed toward the southwest of Hawai`i, but we may still be able to pull in a extra-large surf when it fills in Saturday, still at fairly large levels Sunday. The models don’t show much action until late Sunday when another storm is forecast to develop near the dateline, bombing east of the dateline Monday as it tracks toward the Gulf of Alaska. This could potentially produce another extra-large swell that would arrive late Tuesday, but it is a bit too early to have any confidence. There is even more significant surf appearing in the long-range forecast, so check back for more updates.
North and northwest facing shores should still see surf in the 5-8 foot range with the potential for a few larger sets likely at the better breaks. Upper West shores may see surf in the 3-5 foot range or slightly higher at the best breaks. East and northeast facing shores should stay small at 1-3 foot. South facing shores will likely come in flat to tiny at 0-2 foot but select breaks may still see a few leftover sets around thigh-high levels.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 1.5 foot at 4:44 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.1 foot at 11:36 AM shortly before noon, then rising to a high of 1.6 foot at 7:05 PM early this evening, before once again dropping to a of foot at just after midnight
The sunrise was at 06:39 am this morning and will set at 06:33 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 6 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 5:10 PM on Sunday, March 16th.
South to southwesterly winds will remain at light levels of 5-10 mph across most of the island today, although much stronger winds should be expected at the higher elevations, potentially gusting to 40 mph at the summit of Haleakala. This pattern should hold through Friday, but an increase is expected over the weekend while the direction swings back to a more typical east to northeasterly pattern.
Sunset: 6:32 PM
Weather Outlook for Thursday
Light winds will become southwest and strengthen into Friday as showers increase ahead of a front approaching from the northwest. The front itself will bring heavier rain and northerly winds from Friday into Saturday. Trade winds will return briefly after the front passes, focusing showers onto windward slopes into Monday. A second, weaker front will bring another round of showers from Monday into Tuesday. Trades will diminish slightly Monday, but then will persist through the middle of the week.
Observations reported southeasterly winds starting to turn southwesterly across the main Hawaiian islands. Diurnal circulations also may be significant early today, but will be overwhelmed increasingly by the accelerating southwest flow. The inversion actually lowered overnight at Kauai, and the air mass there remained very much on the dry side of average, but moister air moved in from the east and southeast, as recorded by the Hilo sounding. Most cloud cover was stable, and precipitation sparse over land, but batches of showers persisted offshore to the east of the state, and sprung up to the west of the Big Island.
Aloft, extremely broad troughing prevailed over most of the eastern north Pacific ocean just north of the islands, though the deeper low remained much further to the north. Guidance agreed reasonably well that the trough will sharpen modestly into Friday as a massive ridge builds over the west coast of north America, providing increased, if unremarkable, support for the front approaching the islands from the northwest at the surface.
Southwest winds will increase ahead of the front from today into Friday, and pre-frontal showers are expected to do likewise. Thus, pops and related grids have been increased accordingly for today. The front itself will spread more organized, and perhaps locally heavy, rain southeast across the state from Friday into Saturday. Northerly winds following the front will become northeasterly fairly soon, carrying lingering moisture onto windward slopes through the rest of the weekend, especially over the Big Island, close to the dissipating boundary.
Brief mid-level ridging aloft will pass overhead from Sunday into Monday, and then a trough aloft will dig down toward the state from Monday into Tuesday, providing support for another approaching front. Although this feature is expected to be weaker than the one arriving over the weekend, pre-frontal showers may be more active in the easterly flow ahead of it. Winds behind this second front should become northerly, and then northeasterly again, fairly quickly. The resulting trade winds are expected to last through the middle of next week.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows 61 to 66. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows 61 to 68. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows 53 to 67. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph early in the morning. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 66 at the shore to around 48 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 64 at the shore to around 50 at 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze, breezy. Lows around 46 at 7000 feet to around 41 at the summit. West winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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