The current northwest swell will continue to subside through Saturday. Another large northwest swell is expected Saturday night, most likely triggering high surf advisories for the north and west facing shores for most of the isles. This swell will be supported by a small to moderate size north swell that may prompt another high surf advisory for the east facing shores with a northern exposure, possibly Sunday. This series of northwest swells will begin to subside Monday.
A new long-period northwest swell is anticipated to arrive Wednesday, potentially reaching advisory levels. This swell should persist through Thursday night. Along with this swell, a short period northeast swell from a low pressure area forecast to form north of the islands may impact the state during the second half of week. This swell may prolong the advisories for the east facing shores. Additionally, the east facing shores will see rough and choppy seas caused by the strong and blustery tradewinds.
A front will reach the islands Saturday afternoon and clear the area by Sunday night. High pressure building in behind the boundary will strengthen north and northeast winds. Small craft advisories (SCAs) will be issued as warranted. Gale warnings may also be necessary early next week for some of the channels, especially Alenuihaha.
Low tide at Kahului was 1.2 foot at 12:56 AM just after midnight, rising to a high of 1.3 foot at 5:10 AM early this morning, then dropping to a low of 0.4 foot at 1:39 PM early this afternoon, before once again rising to a high of 1.5 foot at 11:03 PM shortly before midnight
The sunrise was at 06:51 am this morning and will set at 06:27 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 22 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 3:00 PM on Sunday, February 26th.
Sunset: 6:26 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
Generally dry weather and light winds are expected across the state tonight into early Saturday. A change in the weather is then expected later Saturday and Sunday as a cold front sweeps down the island chain. The front will bring a brief period of clouds and showers, reaching Kauai by Saturday afternoon, then moving quickly down the island chain Saturday night and Sunday. The front will be followed by cool and brisk north to northeast winds, with windy conditions expected on Sunday. Cool and breezy trade wind weather will continue through the middle of next week, with clouds and light showers favoring windward areas, occasionally spreading leeward on the smaller islands.
Currently at the surface, a 1023 mb high is located around 1050 miles northeast of Hilo, with the ridge axis extending southwestward and through the western islands. Meanwhile, a cold front is located around 375 miles northwest of Kauai. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies in place across the state, with radar imagery showing some light showers over the coastal waters around Kauai and Oahu, as well as over southeastern sections of the Big Island. Main short term concern revolves around the changing weather conditions with the approaching cold front.
Tonight, The high pressure ridge axis will weaken over the island chain as the cold front makes steady progress southeastward toward the state. Light winds will prevail over the islands, with land breezes developing in most areas. Mainly dry conditions are expected, although with the moist boundary layer a stray shower can’t entirely be ruled out, particularly over the eastern and western ends of the state.
Saturday through Sunday, The cold front will continue to approach from the northwest Saturday morning and move through Kauai Saturday afternoon. The front will continue to push quickly southeastward Saturday night, moving through Oahu Saturday evening, through Maui County after midnight Saturday night, then finally pushing through the Big Island on Sunday. A band of clouds and showers is expected to accompany the front as it moves through, but with the quick movement of the front and lack of any significant forcing for ascent, rainfall amounts should remain on the light side. The more noticeable change will be the return of strong north to northeast trade winds and cooler conditions as high pressure builds in behind the cold front. Breezy to locally windy north to northeast trades will overspread Kauai Saturday afternoon, Oahu and Maui County Saturday night, and the Big Island on Sunday. The winds may be strong enough that Wind Advisories may be needed for some of the windier areas of the state beginning as early as Saturday night and continuing through at least Sunday.
Sunday night through next Friday, Model solutions are in good agreement showing strong high pressure remaining north of the state through the middle of next week, keeping a breezy to windy trade wind flow in place across the island chain. In fact, the winds may be strong enough to warrant Wind Advisories for the typically windier areas of the state through Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF show an area of low pressure developing north of the islands by late next week, but there remains some disagreement regarding the placement of this feature. Overall, it appears that the developing area of low pressure will assist in lightening or disrupting the trade wind flow across the islands for the tail end of the upcoming work week. As for sensible weather details, with the trades returning we should see a windward and mauka focused shower pattern across the islands, with showers drifting into leeward areas from time to time due to the strength of the trades. The airmass will remain quite dry through the period however with precipitable water values remaining at or below 1 inch, so rainfall amounts should generally remain light.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 at the shore to around 60 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast late in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 at the shore to 60 to 67 upcountry. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the north with gusts to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 54 to 62. South winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest up to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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