Moderate to fresh tradewinds both local and upstream will continue to provide short-period windswell along our east and northeast facing shores. Minor long-period south-southwest will continue to drop along our south facing shores but only reaching knee to waist-high levels at the better exposed breaks. A new and much large south-southwest swell is expected to arrive Tuesday and it will have the potential of reaching or even exceeding advisory levels at its peak. A tiny to small north swell is also expected to arrive Tuesday followed shortly behind by a longer-period north-northwest swell Thursday, but this second swell isn’t expected to be much larger than the first.
Today’s Surf Summary
East and northeast facing shores may offer sloppy windswell in the 2-4 foot range but don’t expect much. North and northwest facing shores should remain flat to tiny at only 1-3 foot. Upper West shores will be completely flat at 0-2 foot. South facing shores may see tiny surf around 1-3 foot but it is fading out.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 1.6 foot at 1:32 AM late last night, dropping to a low of -0.3 foot at 7:51 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 2.3 foot at 2:44 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.5 foot at 8:53 PM early this evening
The sunrise was at 05:52 am this morning and will set at 06:52 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 14 days old and is in a Full Moon phase. The next Waning Gibbous will occur at 10:36 AM on Monday, May 11th.
The northeast to easterly tradewinds will continue around moderate levels of 10-15 mph across most of the island although some areas could see gusts reaching to 30 mph. Moderate to breezy trades should be expected through the upcoming week.
Sunset: 6:51 PM
Weather Outlook for Sunday
Moderate trade winds will persist into Monday, with periods of breezy trades expected during the upcoming work week. Conditions will be stable, with clouds and showers favoring windward slopes and coasts. Pockets of moisture riding in on the trade winds will periodically boost shower coverage, allowing a few showers to spread to leeward sections of the smaller islands.
The ongoing forecast remains in line with the latest model guidance, with a climatological trade wind weather pattern prevailing for the foreseeable future. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail this week, providing brief showers that will favor windward slopes and coasts.
Moderate trade winds today and Monday will likely increase a notch on Tuesday. A surface high about 1150 miles NE of the islands is currently driving the trade winds, but is being weakened by fronts to its N and W. The high will rebuild by Tuesday, pushing easterly trade winds into the locally breezy range before dropping a notch on Wednesday and Thursday as the high weakens. A new high building NW of the area late in the week is expected to lead to stronger trades as we head into next weekend.
Brief showers will favor windward slopes and coasts, with showers most active during the night and morning hours. Pockets of moisture passing through will lead to increases in showers at times, but these are difficult to forecast with much skill beyond the first period. One such area of moisture riding in on the trades has made for a wet night along the windward side of the Big Island, with rain gages indicating 12 hour rainfall totals between one half and one inch. Pops have been boosted over windward Maui and Big Island through this morning to account for this area. Gfs depicts another shower area passing through Monday night and Tuesday, while other model guidance is not. As GFS has a decent track record detecting these showery patches, windward pops have been increased for late Monday and early Tuesday. Either way, midlevel ridging will remain overhead through the week, keeping the atmosphere rather stable with the inversion mainly varying between 6000 to 9000 ft.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 54 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 68 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Lows around 66 at the shore to 51 to 57 upcountry. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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