The current northwest swell will drop a bit today but another reinforcement is expected to arrive later in the afternoon, boosting the surf back to overhead levels. This energy could provide larger sets at the better exposed breaks, possibly several feet overhead at the best locations. Another north-northwest swell will arrive later in the day Saturday, building overnight into Suday to offer double-overhead surf along our winter shores. An advisory may be posted, but surf here on Maui will likely stay just below that level. This swell should slowly fade to moderate or small levels into Tuesday, but yet another reinforcement is expected from the north early Tuesday morning. This swell isn’t expected to reach over moderate levels, but it is a little too early for specifics. Although the models do show more activity in the near future, nothing significant is expected through the forecast period. Shifting now to the South Pacific, low pressure southeast of New Zealand set up a long fetch of severe gales aimed toward French Polynesia. This energy should reach our summer shores Sunday into Monday, holding around moderate levels until Tuesday, then slowly fading through Thursday. A low pushing up the Tasman Sea is setting up a southwest swell, but this energy will have to survive a long journey riddled with lots of south seas islands in its path, and whatever energy does reach Hawai`i will be largely blocked by Kaho`olawe. If we’re lucky, we may see a little bump around next Friday. So enjoy what we have over the next several days.
North and northwest facing shores should offer surf in the 4-7+ foot range with higher sets possible at the better breaks, especially in the afternoon and early evening hours. Upper West shores may see surf around 2-5 foot, possibly higher later in the day. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores should stay around 2-4 foot with higher sets possible at some breaks exposed to the north-northwest swell. South facing shores will stay flat at 0-2 foot with no swell to mention.
Wind and Tide Information
High tide at Kahului was 2.7 foot at 5:17 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 0.8 foot at 12:11 PM just after noon, then rising to a high of 1.2 foot at 4:28 PM late this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.0 foot at 10:32 PM late this evening
The sunrise was at 06:49 am this morning and will set at 05:46 pm this evening. The Moon is in a waxing crescent phase and will reach First Quarter Monday.
The light and variable winds will stay around 0-10 mph today with a slow fade into the weekend. Gentle to light winds will persist through the weekend but should then increase early next week as the tradewinds return.
Sunset: 5:44 PM
Weather Outlook for Friday
Kauai will experience a brief period of moderate northeast winds and an increase in showers today as a front stalls and dissipates nearby. Otherwise, expect generally light winds with a dominant land and sea breeze pattern featuring afternoon clouds and partial clearing at night through Saturday. An increase in showers is expected for the eastern end of the state Sunday and Monday. Trade winds will briefly return on Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a return of southeasterly flow.
A shallow weakening front is inching toward Kauai. This feature will stall near the garden isle today, bringing an increase in shower chances on windward and northern slopes. Increasing northeast winds will bleed through the front producing moderate winds. The moisture will linger into the evening then lift to the north late tonight as winds diminish and quickly shift out of the southeast.
Across the rest of the state, a weak easterly flow will be overpowered by daytime sea breezes. Expect afternoon clouds and a slight chance for a shower over interior and mauka sections. Midlevel ridging will hold firm, producing stable conditions with an inversion near 7000 ft. This, combined with a lack of moisture, will mean that rainfall totals will be scant.
Winds will steadily shift to southeasterly then southerly on Saturday as a front passes several hundred miles north of the state. Limited moisture on Saturday will lead to a rather dry convective pattern with interior cloud development in the afternoon.
Forecast confidence begins to decrease heading into Sunday with a surge on moisture expected to spread over the eastern end of the island chain. An upper level trough is currently enhancing the ITCZ about 500 miles south of the Big Island. Moisture from this area will be pulled northward by an amplifying ridge east of the state along 140°W. The Big Island will have the best chance of seeing an increase in showers, with the rest of the state having low chances for rainfall due to isolated showers moving up from the south and sea breezes driving afternoon convection. Midlevel ridging will hang on, so only light to moderate rainfall is expected. This pattern will continue into Monday, leading to increasing amounts of vog state-wide as well as rising humidity later Sunday and especially Monday.
Trade winds will return on Tuesday as the front to the north weakens and lifts out. A following high passing about 800 miles north of the islands will drive the brief return of the trades. Models are advertising the trade winds to shift southeasterly late Wednesday and Thursday as another front approaches from the northwest.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 66. Southeast winds up to 10 mph early in the evening becoming light, then becoming east up to 10 mph early in the morning.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 69. East winds up to 10 mph until early morning becoming light.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 56 to 67. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69 at the shore to around 50 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Lows around 65 at the shore to around 50 at 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mostly clear. Lows 42 to 48 at 7000 feet to around 41 at the summit. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
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