The current south-southwest swell will continue to drop today, potentially still offering surf at chest-high levels but it is on the way down. A new long-period south-southwest swell is expected to arrive later in the day today with the potential of raising the advisory flags. Minor leftovers from former hurricane Marie may still be found along select shores out of the east-northeast but the Big Island blocked much of this energy. Wave heights should only come in around knee to waist-high at best and it is on the way down and the tiny windswell won’t offer much more along the windward shores. A pair of strong storms developed near New Zealand last week but they weren’t aimed very well in our direction. The first of these storms pushed off of the Antarctic ice shelf last Wednesday setting up a long-period swell that should reach our islands Tuesday into Wednesday, flirting near advisory levels. The second storm was much stronger and reached hurricane strength following a similar track toward the northeast. A very broad area of large seas developed and a good fetch was aimed toward the east of Hawai`i. The bad news is that we won’t see the full potential of this swell, but the two swells should arrive nearly simultaneously which will result in higher wave counts. This energy should stick around for several days. Our next chance for any summer surf won’t come until next Tuesday, courtesy of another storm southeast of New Zealand that is currently moving out of our swell window. The long-range models are hinting toward a possibly northwest swell developing over the weekend, but it’s too early for any confidence.
Today’s Surf Summary
South facing shores should still see surf in the 2-5 foot range possibly building above head-high levels later in the day and into Wednesday. East and northeast facing shores have a mix of fading hurricane swell and minor windswell around 1-4 foot. North and northwest facing shores should stay rather flat and tiny at 0-3 foot with no swell to mention. Upper West shores will be similar at only 0-2 foot. The action will be focused on the south shores this week, have fun.
Wind and Tide Information
Low tide at Kahului was 0.4 foot at 2:03 AM late last night, rising to a high of 1.9 foot at 10:52 AM this morning, then dropping to a of foot at just after midnight, before once again of foot at just after midnight
The sunrise was at 06:09 am this morning and will set at 06:41 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 7 days old, and is in a Quarter phase. The next Waxing Gibbous will occur at 1:38 AM on Tuesday, September 9th.
Moderate easterly tradewinds will build into the 10-15 mph range today and will remain at similar levels through the rest of the week, possibly a tick lighter around Thursday and Friday.
Sunset: 6:39 PM
Weather Outlook for Tuesday
Light trade winds will strengthen slightly on Tuesday, and remain light to moderate for most of the upcoming week. The light winds will allow land breezes to develop over leeward areas later tonight as the land cools, resulting in clearing skies. Meanwhile, the light trade winds will deliver a few showers to windward areas. With the strengthening trades, expect clouds and showers to favor windward areas, especially during nights and mornings.
Latest satellite and radar animations show the low-level flow is from the E, at least at cloud level, pushing limited clouds and showers over near shore waters toward the W. An area of enhanced showers is lingering over windward Oahu and near shore waters, as remnants of afternoon convection interact with the light E winds. The winds are being supported by a distant high that is relatively weak, with weak troughs between the high and the islands contributing to a loose pressure gradient, as is the remnant circulation of Marie about 1300 miles NE of the islands. Although skies immediately upstream of the islands are nearly clear, an area of showery low clouds lies 100 to 300 miles E of windward Big Island, moving W near 10 mph.
Overnight, lingering sea breeze-driven clouds and showers over Kauai and Oahu will gradually diminish, while the light trade winds deliver a few showers to windward areas statewide. Leeward areas on all islands will see clear skies developing, with the light trades allowing land breezes to develop in sheltered areas.
Winds will slowly strengthen on Tuesday as the troughs NW of the islands weaken and the surface ridge to the N strengthens somewhat. The overall synoptic pattern does not support a strong trade flow this week however, but rather a light to moderate flow. The trade winds will push the area of moisture E of the Big Island over the island chain over the 12 to 36 hours, with latest guidance suggesting it will move over windward Big Island by Tuesday morning, Maui county during the day, Oahu by evening and Kauai by Tuesday night before clearing to the W. After this modest moisture source passes, limited moisture is expected through Thursday. Increased moisture loosely associated with the remnant of Marie passing far NE of the islands may increase windward showers from Thursday night through Saturday.
Biggest forecast question for the next couple of days involves the strength of the trade winds, and whether or nor leeward sea breezes will become strong enough to lead to cloud and shower development over leeward and interior areas, similar to what we saw on Kauai and Oahu today. Latest forecast grids do not indicate that this will occur, and will monitor overnight trends and model guidance to see if a chance of afternoon leeward showers should be included in the forecast. Needless to say, the leeward Big Island is the exception, with leeward clouds and showers be expected every afternoon and evening through the forecast period.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Sunny. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 70 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 at the shore to around 70 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly sunny. Highs around 87 at the shore to around 72 at 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the south in the late morning and afternoon.
Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 66 at 7000 feet to around 61 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Photo of the Day