Tropical Storm Ana will be passing by just a few hundred miles south of the islands over the next couple of days, currently located about 250 miles south of the Big Island and tracking toward the west-northwest with sustained winds over 70 mph. Although a direct impact on Maui is very unlikely, coastal areas along the south side of the islands may be affected. Large and unruly surf may approach or exceed double-overhead levels or even higher at select locations. This will be short-period and dangerous, so please use your head if you paddle out. Strong currents and little to no time between sets will make the conditions quite dangerous. Rising swell along our north and northwest facing shores over the weekend will provide us with a better swell out of the northwest with the potential of rising to well overhead levels likely exceeding advisory levels late Saturday and Sunday. More details to come over the weekend.
Today’s Surf Summary
North and northwest facing shores should offer surf in the 2-5 foot range today with rising surf expected over the weekend. Upper West shores should also see surf in the 1-4+ foot range today, rising over the weekend as well. South facing shores have small surf this morning around 1-3 foot but we should expect large and dangerous surf to arrive later in the day around 6-10++ foot or higher. Windswell along the east and northeast facing shores is on the rise and may reach into the 4-7+ foot range later in the day as well. Use your best judgment before paddling out and be aware of changing conditions.
Wind and Tide Information
Low tide at Kahului was 0.8 foot at 4:48 AM early this morning, rising to a high of 2.0 foot at 12:02 PM just after noon, then dropping to a low of 0.7 foot at 7:02 PM early this evening, before once again rising to a of foot at just after midnight
The sunrise was at 06:21 am this morning and will set at 06:00 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 24 days old, and is in a Waning Crescent phase. The next New Moon will occur at 9:56 PM on Thursday, October 23rd.
Easterly tradewinds in the 10-20 mph range should be expected today with higher gusts likely in some areas. The winds are expected to increase through the evening into Saturday as Tropical Storm Ana approaches near the islands. Wind speeds will remain elevated through the weekend but are expected to drop backg to lighter levels around the middle of the week.
Sunset: 5:57 PM
Weather Outlook for Friday
Tropical storm Ana will continue to approach the islands today. The latest forecast has Ana passing by to the south and west of the state over the next few days. The Big Island will be the first to feel the impacts of Ana, with its associated weather conditions spreading across the rest of the island chain later tonight through Sunday. Stay well informed with the latest forecasts and bulletins from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
Tropical storm Ana continues to move toward the west northwest with its center presently located about 200 miles to the south southeast of South Point on the Big Island. The latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center continues to have the center of Ana passing south and west of the main Hawaiian islands.
People in Hawaii should remain well informed with the latest bulletins and forecasts which are available at www.weather.gov/hawaii under headers WTPA25 PHFO and TCMCP5. Public advisories under headers WTPA35 PHFO and TCPCP5, and discussions under headers WTPA45 PHFO and TCDCP5. More detailed information can also be found in the tropical storm Ana local statement under headers wthw80 PHFO and hlshfo.
Ana will bring the potential for heavy rain and chance of thunderstorms starting over the Big Island later today, then gradually spreading across the rest of the island chain later tonight through Sunday.
As Ana passes by south of the islands the pressure gradient should become tighter between the storm system and high pressure to our north. This synoptic setup should bring stronger winds from the east and northeast especially across Oahu and Kauai Saturday through Sunday.
In the longer range once Ana moves west of our area our winds will gradually swing around to a southerly direction with a drying trend in our weather expected.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Cloudy. Numerous showers and chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 68 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Cloudy. Scattered showers and chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 68 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Cloudy with frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 60 to 73. East winds 15 to 20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Cloudy with frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 71 at the shore to around 53 at 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Cloudy. Numerous showers and chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 71 at the shore to 54 to 60 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Cloudy with frequent showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 58 at 7000 feet to around 54 at the summit. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80 percent.
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