The current long-period south swell is holding around 2 ft at the local buoys this morning. Peak wave periods associated with this source, however, are slowly trending down into the 14 to 15 second band. This source will likely hold through a good portion of the day today before easing further through the remainder of the weekend. A small northwest (320 degrees) swell is forecast to fill in later on Sunday, peak on Monday, then gradually fade Tuesday and Wednesday. As this northerly source fades, another small southerly swell is forecast to fill in late Tuesday and Tuesday night and persist through the mid-week period. Winds will remain light through the remainder of the weekend due to a weak trough located northwest of Kauai. This will translate to light offshore flow through the late night and early morning hours at the area beaches and nearshore locations, before shifting to onshore through the late morning and afternoon periods as the sea breeze develops and pushes ashore. Elsewhere across the marine areas…light southeast winds will persist into Sunday before shifting to northeast as a weak boundary pushes east across the state and high pressure builds north of the marine area. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return across the state through the upcoming week. However, they should remain below small craft advisory levels.
Low tide at Kahului was 0.7 foot at 2:55 AM late last night, rising to a high of 0.8 foot at 6:51 AM early this morning, then dropping to a low of 0.4 foot at 12:11 PM just after noon, before once again rising to a high of 2.0 foot at 8:06 PM early this evening
The sunrise was at 05:43 am this morning and will set at 07:03 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 21 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 3:01 AM on Sunday, June 5th.
Sunset: 7:02 PM
Weather Outlook for Saturday
A weak front northwest of the state will keep winds light through the weekend. This front will push slowly southward through Kauai and Oahu Sunday night and Memorial Day, before stalling out and dissipating over the central and eastern islands by mid week. High pressure will build north of the state in the wake of the front, allowing the trade winds to return for much of next week.
Currently at the surface, a 1027 mb high is centered around 1550 miles northeast of Hilo. Meanwhile, a nearly stationary front resides around 325 miles northwest of Kauai. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies in place over the islands, with radar imagery showing scattered showers drifting through the area. Main short term concern for today revolves around rain chances.
Today through Sunday… The front northwest of the islands will push slowly southeastward through the period, and will be approaching the coast of Kauai by late Sunday afternoon. As a result, a light wind regime will remain in place across the state, with daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes expected in most areas. Precipitable water (PW) values will remain around 1.5 inches through the period, so expect scattered to numerous showers over the interior of the islands each afternoon/evening with lesser activity during the overnight and early morning hours.
Sunday night through next Friday… The 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF offer slightly different solutions with respect to the front or its remnants entering the island chain early next week. Despite the minor differences in timing details, they both suggest that a weakening front will move southward through Kauai and Oahu early next week. The front or its remnants will then slowly dissipate over the central and eastern islands through mid week as high pressure builds north of the state. We will utilize a blend of the 00z solutions through the period which suggests some enhanced showers moving southward through the island chain in association with the weakening front on Memorial day and through the first half of the week. Showers should also begin to focus more across windward and mauka locales as the week progresses due to returning trades resulting from high pressure building north of the state. A more typical trade wind pattern will return for the second half of next week as PW values drop closer to seasonal levels…while light to moderate trades continue.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 61 to 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 68. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 55 to 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 67 at the shore to around 51 at 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 63 at the shore to around 53 upcountry. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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