Surf will be small through the next week. A series of mainly small pulses of south-southwesterly swell will continue to bring small surf to our south facing shores. A very small, relatively short-period northwest swell is already diminishing and this swell will fade Sunday. A new relatively short-period north-northwest swell is expected Monday and Tuesday, but resulting surf along north and exposed west facing shores will be small. Increasing trade winds will lead to gradually increasing windswell that will drive moderate short-period surf along east facing shores. A high pressure cell building to the distant northwest of the islands is bringing an increase in trade wind speeds, with wind speeds up to 25 knots in the Alenuihaha channel. With winds expected to increase further, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for the typically windy marine zones around the Big Island and Maui. The SCA is posted through Tuesday night, although it is expected that it will need to remain in place through much of the week.
Low tide at Kahului was 0.5 foot at 4:15 AM early this morning, rising to a high of 2.3 foot at 11:43 AM shortly before noon, then dropping to a low of 0.7 foot at 6:37 PM early this evening, before once again rising to a high of 1.4 foot at 11:36 PM shortly before midnight
The sunrise was at 06:14 am this morning and will set at 06:19 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 24 days old, and is in a Last Quarter phase. The next Waning Crescent will occur at 12:13 AM on Saturday, October 1st.
Sunset: 6:18 PM
Weather Outlook for Sunday
Trade winds will strengthen today and Monday, and will be locally breezy for The upcoming week. While a drier than normal trade wind weather pattern is expected today and tonight, a short-lived increase in trade showers is expected early Monday. Beyond that, a typical trade wind weather pattern is expected this week, with clouds and brief showers favoring windward slopes and coasts, mainly during nights and mornings. While leeward areas will be mostly dry, leeward Big Island will see afternoon and evening clouds, and a few showers.
A stable trade wind pattern is over the islands this morning, with just a few showery low clouds approaching the islands from the E. High pressure currently building to the distant NW of the islands is supporting increasing trade winds, and will be the primary surface feature driving island weather this week as it tracks steadily eastward.
While a drier-than-normal trade wind weather pattern is expected today and tonight, a short-lived increase in trade wind showers is anticipated early Monday. This is expected as an area of low-level moisture associated with a weak mid-level trough, still about 500 miles E of the islands, arrives on the trade wind flow. While this will bring an increase in mainly windward showers, significant rainfall accumulations are not expected.
The high passing well N of the area will support locally breezy trade winds, and a typical trade wind weather pattern will prevail from later Monday through at least Friday, with clouds and showers over windward areas most active during nights and mornings. Heading into next weekend, the GFS and ECMWF are somewhat consistent in depicting an increase in moisture arriving from the E and SE, despite some differences in their depiction of synoptic features. Using a blend of these solutions, the long-term forecast grids were modified to increase PoPs next weekend.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
Mostly clear. Lows 69 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 61 to 77. Northeast winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 75 at the shore to around 56 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
Mostly clear. Lows around 73 at the shore to 55 to 60 upcountry. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Breezy. Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
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