East facing shores remain under a High Surf Advisory through Saturday. Buoys exposed to the east swell continue to show seas near 10 feet, but seas and swell will gradually decrease tonight and Sunday as the upstream fetch weakens. A below average NW swell will continue to decrease through the weekend with surf heights still around head-high+ sets at the better breaks this morning. Minor south-southwest swell probably won’t provide much action at all. The Small Craft Advisory for most waters will remain through today with seas remaining over 10 feet and some terrain enhanced winds accelerating southeast winds up to 25 kt.
High tide at Kahului was 2.5 foot at 5:03 AM early this morning, dropping to a low of 1.0 foot at 11:57 AM shortly before noon, then rising to a high of 1.2 foot at 3:36 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.1 foot at 9:59 PM late this evening
The sunrise was at 06:47 am this morning and will set at 05:45 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 4 days old, and is in a Waxing Crescent phase. The next First Quarter will occur at 9:03 AM on Wednesday, December 7th.
Weather Outlook for Saturday
Active weather is expected across the island chain through Sunday as another upper level disturbance passes the area while a deep moist southerly flow continues across the state. Locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms will be possible at times. The weather may calm down briefly Monday and Monday night, though more troublesome weather may return through the rest of next week.
Weather conditions did improve over the Big Island since late Friday night, though there are still lines of showers moving in from the southeast at times. Elsewhere some heavier showers have developed over the coastal waters, especially over Kauai channel while showers also developed and persisted along the Koolaus on Oahu earlier this morning under the southeast winds. The axis of the upper level trough is just about over the islands early this morning…and will continue to shift north. Early morning soundings revealed an unstable airmass in the island vicinity, and not surprisingly, Hilo sounding showed rather deep moisture to well over fifteen thousand feet while Lihue sounding is much drier. As the moisture is deep enough to reach the Big Island summits, and with the cold temperature aloft associated with the passing upper level trough, wintry weather is expected across the Big Island summits today. Hence, a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa through this evening.
A rather active weather pattern is in store for the state through the rest of the weekend into next week as a long-wave trough settles near the states. In turn, a surface trough will persist near the area, with low level southerly winds in the vicinity. Winds will be somewhat light across the islands under the mainly southeasterly winds, allowing night-time land breezes and day-time sea breezes to become more widespread. The synoptic southerly winds will bring deep moist tropical airmass to the area. Furthermore, upper level features that ride along the upper level westerly flow will amplify somewhat during their passage across the island vicinity, bringing rather cold temperatures aloft, leading to the airmass in the area becoming more unstable at times, allowing deep convection to develop. Therefore, the threat of heavy rain as well as slight chance of thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the weekend for the islands. It will be hard to pin-point exactly where the threat will be the highest, though with the low level wind flow still has a little easterly component, windward and mountain areas may see a higher share. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all islands until Sunday afternoon and may need to be extended.
The next upper level trough is expected to reach the islands later today into Sunday. Periods of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across the area during its passage. The focus of the convection will begin with the western portion of the state today as the feature approaches from the west, then slowly shift eastward to the Big Island Sunday and Sunday night. A Winter Storm Watch remains posted for the potential for additional heavy snow on the Big Island summits Sunday and Sunday night. Snow levels should be a little bit higher as forecast model indicated 500 mb temperatures associated with this next trough is slightly warmer.
A slight break on the active weather is possible on Monday as the upper level feature exits the state east. Another upper level trough is forecast to approach the islands from the west Tuesday. Although there are some differences between model solutions upon how the surface response from this next system will develop across the islands, the solutions all agree upon a weak broad surface trough persisting in the island vicinity, with moisture from the tropics reaching the area at times. Therefore, expect possibly more disturbed weather to affect the islands next week, with elevated rain chances.
Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Mostly sunny with slight chance of thunderstorms and isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 80 to 85. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Haze. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 78 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING… …FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Haze. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 63 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING… …FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 80 at the shore to around 66 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Haze. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 84 at the shore to 67 to 72 upcountry. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
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